World Economy - Anyone worried?

[retireby45]

Not trying to time the market but I have recently started my investment in diversified ETF's in Canada. Time frame is still long term, say 10-15 yrs

But all this Canada and world economy situation is making me nervous? Anyone else in my shoes here? What are your thoughts?

 

[Spock]

"Don't put all your eggs in one basket" applies to countries/currencies too.
Diversify enough to have insurance if the music stops, but don't bet it all in case QE5 extends the game a little longer.

 

[retireby45]

"Don't put all your eggs in one basket" applies to countries/currencies too.
Diversify enough to have insurance if the music stops, but don't bet it all in case QE5 extends the game a little longer.

Thanks Spock. My investment are currently diversified as below
80% equities (44.2% International Equities, 19.7% Canadian Equities, 17.8% US equities)
rest debt.

Timeframe is still > 10 yrs so will wait few years to change my allocations again

 

[Mdlerth]

Your horizon is 10-15 years? Don't worry, be happy.

Said Tommy Lee Jones to Will Smith in Men in Black: "There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or Corellian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that's about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet."

And yet humanity chugs along anyway.

World economy turbulent? Squabbling over tariffs? Yield curve inversions?
Meh. We've survived worse.

 

[Breedlove]

No use worrying , you can't do a thing about it .

 

[frayne]

Said Tommy Lee Jones to Will Smith in Men in Black: "There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or Corellian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that's about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet."

And yet humanity chugs along anyway.

World economy turbulent? Squabbling over tariffs? Yield curve inversions?
Meh. We've survived worse.

+1 What could possibly go wrong !

 

[marko]

Not worried.
I posted the following on another thread yesterday:

"...Maybe I'm just getting old, but over my lifetime I've been warned about Communists, nuclear war, over population, running out of oil, running out of food, nuclear power plants, global cooling, global warming, acid rain, the Japanese buying up all of the US, the Saudis buying up all the US, Y2K and global financial collapse among just a few "end of the world as we know it" apocalypses. (oh! and the end of SS)

Still waiting. I just can't get worked up about this stuff anymore.

I'm living the same life, doing the same things and going to the same places that I have for my entire 67 years. Not much has changed in my day-to-day as far as I can see..."

Heard a sermon many years ago where the priest said: "Life is way too short. You only should have time for the very best that's out there; don't waste your time on the crap."

 

[retireby45]

Not worried.
I posted the following on another thread yesterday:

"...Maybe I'm just getting old, but over my lifetime I've been warned about Communists, nuclear war, over population, running out of oil, running out of food, nuclear power plants, global cooling, global warming, acid rain, the Japanese buying up all of the US, the Saudis buying up all the US, Y2K and global financial collapse among just a few "end of the world as we know it" apocalypses. (oh! and the end of SS)

Still waiting. I just can't get worked up about this stuff anymore.

I'm living the same life, doing the same things and going to the same places that I have for my entire 67 years. Not much has changed in my day-to-day as far as I can see..."

Heard a sermon many years ago where the priest said: "Life is way too short. You only should have time for the very best that's out there; don't waste your time on the crap."

Very well said Marko. Btw, like your signature

 

[retireby45]

Said Tommy Lee Jones to Will Smith in Men in Black: "There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or Corellian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that's about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet."

And yet humanity chugs along anyway.

World economy turbulent? Squabbling over tariffs? Yield curve inversions?
Meh. We've survived worse.

Makes sense. All we can do is invest wisely. rest we'll see

 

[Lsbcal]

I don't do ad hoc investing.

Recessions have historically been preceded by a yield curve inversion which is now pretty firmly in place in the US. Several other developed countries now have inverted yield curves. This doesn't mean we will have a recession next month but we could in the coming months. More bad signs would be a further drop in the SP500 and/or unemployment ticking up.

FWIW, I'm near selling but not there yet. If I do it won't be on worries but data.

 

[retireby45]

I don't do ad hoc investing.

Recessions have historically been preceded by a yield curve inversion which is now pretty firmly in place in the US. Several other developed countries now have inverted yield curves. This doesn't mean we will have a recession next month but we could in the coming months. More bad signs would be a further drop in the SP500 and/or unemployment ticking up.

FWIW, I'm near selling but not there yet. If I do it won't be on worries but data.

Its good you analyze and understand this behavior to some extent. For people like me, its little to assume that long term plan is keep investing and change my allocations as I get closer to retirement age.

 

[bloom2708]

Worry has no return.

Out of my scope of control. Pass the beer nuts.

 

[target2019]

Yeah, it's going down. Comes up sometimes, too. Almost time to do the monthly numbers. Only reaction will be to time a little in next Roth contribution. Instead of REIT, maybe add to Int'l Value. Have to wait for the total evaluation, then I'll time...

 

[Walt34]

"...Maybe I'm just getting old, but over my lifetime I've been warned about Communists, nuclear war, over population, running out of oil, running out of food, nuclear power plants, global cooling, global warming, acid rain, the Japanese buying up all of the US, the Saudis buying up all the US, Y2K and global financial collapse among just a few "end of the world as we know it" apocalypses. (oh! and the end of SS)

Still waiting. I just can't get worked up about this stuff anymore.

Pretty much my outlook too. Well said.

 

[unclemick]

And to think when I was real young I read Mad Magazine.

heh heh heh - Target Retirement since 2006. I sometimes miss all my whining, worrying, watching, reading, and deep thinking. And misty memory of the coffee and pastries at the old New Orleans chapter of AAII.

 

[HI Bill]

...over my lifetime I've been warned about Communists, nuclear war, over population, running out of oil, running out of food, nuclear power plants, global cooling, global warming, acid rain, the Japanese buying up all of the US, the Saudis buying up all the US, Y2K and global financial collapse among just a few "end of the world as we know it" apocalypses. (oh! and the end of SS)

Still waiting. I just can't get worked up about this stuff anymore.

Well let's see:

• Communism was mostly defeated (at least in the USSR)
• Nuclear war - not yet, but the threat is still here
• Over population - I've seen the earth's population more than double in my lifetime, and am shocked at the southern CA growth...it's real, and it's affecting the earth.
• Running out of oil - the discovery of fracking seems to have temporarily staved off this one!
• Running out of food - industrialized farming and chemistry seem to have solved this one.
• Nucelar power plants: Fukushima, Chernobyl, 3-Mile Island...there have been major disasters. Glad you didn't live next to any of these.
• Global cooling. Not sure this was a concern since the last ice age.
• Global warming. Still an ongoing concern...glaciers mostly melting, sea level is still rising, and world climates are changing. In Hawaii, we get fewer trade wind days and less rain than 30 years ago.
• Japanese real estate investors - their 20+ year recession has taken a bite out of their appetite for investment...but the Chinese have taken over!
• Y2K...not a really big problem, but proactive measures solved this before it could be a problem.
• Acid rain....not sure about this one.
• Global financial collapse. Not really sure this is a concern until WWIII.
• End of SS? I'm sure they'll cut benefits in some manner, but we'll have to wait till 2035 to find out, most likely!

All of that said, we, as individuals, have little power to change/influence any of these. I find that I'm happiest when I'm on vacation, in a remote part of the world, with no news coverage, and no internet....no worries!

 

[MichaelB]

Not worried.
I posted the following on another thread yesterday:

"...Maybe I'm just getting old, but over my lifetime I've been warned about Communists, nuclear war, over population, running out of oil, running out of food, nuclear power plants, global cooling, global warming, acid rain, the Japanese buying up all of the US, the Saudis buying up all the US, Y2K and global financial collapse among just a few "end of the world as we know it" apocalypses. (oh! and the end of SS)

Still waiting. I just can't get worked up about this stuff anymore.

I'm living the same life, doing the same things and going to the same places that I have for my entire 67 years. Not much has changed in my day-to-day as far as I can see..."

Heard a sermon many years ago where the priest said: "Life is way too short. You only should have time for the very best that's out there; don't waste your time on the crap."

An appropriate time for this

 

[audreyh1]

Very good summary HNL_Bill!

(Pssssst - But you forgot the inevitable asteroid.)

 

[NW-Bound]

[*]Over population - I've seen the earth's population more than double in my lifetime, and am shocked at the southern CA growth...it's real, and it's affecting the earth...

Our families certainly have not contributed to this.

I have a total of 1 grand niece. She is the only one of her generation, the offspring of a total of 21 of our children, nephews and nieces from both my and my wife's side, and their spouses. And I only count the ones who are 30 and up to 50 who are about past prime child bearing age. There are some younger ones who likely will not have children, same as their older siblings.

21 down to 1! Soon, there will not be enough workers to do anything. Oh wait! Perhaps we can get some Californians to move here.

 

[aja8888]

Well let's see:


[*]Running out of oil - the discovery of fracking seems to have temporarily staved off this one!

Not fraccing discovery (been doing this for 100+ years here), but add horizontal drilling and the ability to drill into formations and produce from 3X greater depths.

Great list!

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Note that Vanguard is rumored to be going into Canada soon. (Canada is said to have the highest management costs in the world.)

Canada's RRSP beats our Roth. They can carry over unused contributions!

 

[HI Bill]

Not fraccing discovery (been doing this for 100+ years here), but add horizontal drilling and the ability to drill into formations and produce from 3X greater depths.

Great list!

I'm an engineering (not a petroleum) geologist, so this is not my areas of expertise. I thought we had been doing horizontal drilling prior to the 1990s. I thought that horizontal drilling with fracking, and the discovery of the oil shale in the eastern US all came together to make it possible for the US to become indpendent with regards to oil?

 

[LOL!]

Note that Vanguard is rumored to be going into Canada soon. (Canada is said to have the highest management costs in the world.)

Hasn't Vanguard been in Canada for years and years? See Vanguardcanada.ca

 

[aja8888]

I'm an engineering (not a petroleum) geologist, so this is not my areas of expertise. I thought we had been doing horizontal drilling prior to the 1990s. I thought that horizontal drilling with fracking, and the discovery of the oil shale in the eastern US all came together to make it possible for the US to become indpendent with regards to oil?

Shale formations were discovered a long time ago but never exploited. I am pretty sure Mitchell Energy in Houston was the first oil company to successfully develop tools and fraccing techniques to extract hydrocarbons from shale around the early 1990s. Mitchell is now Devon Energy in Oklahoma.

Horizontal drilling has been around since before the 1990s and I have seen fields that were in production (not many) but not in shale. The term was more commonly "directional" drilling and was very precise and could extract hydrocarbons with conventional fraccing in conventional formations.

With respect to shales, there are several big plays and a lot of smaller ones, all of which got developed around the same time (a decade perhaps). Many of these shale formations were primarily natural gas plays: (from Wiki)

2.0 Natural gas shale deposits in the United States

2.1 Antrim Shale, Michigan
2.2 Barnett Shale, Texas
2.3 Caney Shale, Oklahoma
2.4 Conesauga Shale, Alabama
2.5 Fayetteville Shale, Arkansas
2.6 Floyd Shale, Alabama
2.7 Gothic Shale, Colorado
2.8 Haynesville Shale, Louisiana
2.9 Mancos Shale, New Mexico and Coloardo
2.10 Monterey Shale, California
2.11 New Albany Shale, Illinois Basin
2.12 Niobrara Shale, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and Wyoming
2.13 Pearsall Shale, Texas
2.14 Eagle Ford Shale, Texas
2.15 Devonian shales, Appalachian Basin
2.15.1 Chattanooga and Ohio Shales
2.15.2 Marcellus Shale
2.16 Utica Shale, New York
2.17 Woodford Shale, Oklahoma

3.0 Oil shale deposits in the United States
3.1 Bakken formation, North Dakota

Although the gas plays are listed as "gas" above, several of them provide huge quantities of crude oil like the Eagle Ford in south Texas.

Interestingly, about 60% of the Bakken formation is really in Canada, but the field is huge.

And yes, the concurrent timing of the shale extraction techniques, the advances in horizontal drilling (tools) and fraccing technology has made the U.S. "somewhat" energy independent.

 

[6miths]

Hasn't Vanguard been in Canada for years and years? See Vanguardcanada.ca

Yes... and no. Vanguard ETFs (God bless them and the memory of Jack Bogle) have been available in Canada for several years but unfortunately that is the only part of Vanguard that has made the leap.

From the Vanguard Canada website, "Vanguard's current registration in Canada only allows us to discuss our products with registered dealers and financial advisors. As a result, we're limited in our ability to assist individual investors directly."