Would you retire @ 90% probability of success?

[tenant13]

Since this thread focuses on numbers, you could take a closer look at how much your time is worth and decide whether you're selling it at a good price: https://jamesclear.com/value-of-time# This should factor in your decision.
Another good link that helped me make a jump is here: https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f30/the-fog-of-work-42328.html

 

[FLSUnFIRE]

We spent $1,066 so far on clothes this year.

Interesting to see how people spend, my GF is into fashion. She LBHM but our priorities are different, I asked her how much she thought I spent on clothing last year (was a typical year for me) and she guessed $2K, the correct answer was about $200 (and a good portion of that was running shoes)! I laughed but then thought a bit more and realized I must be doing something right if I can spend $200 and give the impression of a $2K budget! I don't think I want to know what she spends if she thinks I spend that much!



I have a very full closet and unless I gain a bunch of weight (I'm stocked if I'm [-]lucky[/-] disciplined and get leaner) so I expect to only buy shoes/socks/undewear for the next few years.

 

[sandlapper]

Another area of retirement is enjoying your free time. The first time in eight years of retirement I ever thought of returning to work was the COVID 19 Quarantine. Financial security is very important but it is not everything.

Best of luck whatever path you choose.

 

[MarieIG]

For me, no, not at 55 unless there were health reasons. I would want 100%+

Retiring at 55 vs. 58 was a consideration for DH. DH - would receive 90% of his pension at 55, and 100% at 58 (in addition to the extra pension and annuity credits) and social security. Since his pension would also be reduced, based upon the 100% joint and survivor, option we decided that he would work until at least 58. (He ended up retiring at 60).

I would also look at your plan after the go-go years. There can be a spike in costs for at home care; or - if you (or spouse if she survives you - she) may want to move into a high quality CCRC.

 

[Nords]

Would you retire @ 90% Ps?

Yes, if you're referring to FIRECalc and the 4% SWR... along with an inflation-fighting pension and cheap healthcare.

Imagine yourself 10 years from now. Will you look back on today and think "Wow, I'm glad I retired at 90% instead of working the extra years for 95%?"

I think you become wealthier when the Fog of Work lifts. Do a google search for that phrase with Nords. It’s a good article that will speak to you as a BD guy.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f30/the-fog-of-work-42328.html

 

[cyber888]

We, and many couples on this forum, live quite well on $100k a year or less.

We can live well on $60,000 a year or less. And that would include a $5K 8 day travel to Europe.

 

[NW-Bound]

We, and many couples on this forum, live quite well on $100k a year or less.

Without a mortgage, $100K goes a looong way. I spend less than that, including long, long international trips. And we still have some money left for charity donations.


PS. I have not exceeded the above amount ever since the kids got out of college and flew the coop.

 

[Chuckanut]

FWIW, I would use more than one retirement calculator. I used FireCalc, of course. It has the amazing ability to back test against reality. That is a real plus. But, I also used a Monte Carlo calculator that ran literally hundreds of market simulations including simulations that had no basis in past history, but could possibly happen. IIRC, the day I realized I had 90%+ in FireCalc and two of the Monte Carlo simulations was one of the happiest days of my life.

 

[corn18]

FWIW, I would use more than one retirement calculator. I used FireCalc, of course. It has the amazing ability to back test against reality. That is a real plus. But, I also used a Monte Carlo calculator that ran literally hundreds of market simulations including simulations that had no basis in past history, but could possibly happen. IIRC, the day I realized I had 90%+ in FireCalc and two of the Monte Carlo simulations was one of the happiest days of my life.

I only use Firecalc occasionally now. My main sim is The Flexible Retirement Planner. Way easier to input various income and expenses and what if scenarios. My spreadsheet is my main planner, though. I run all 3 sometimes just to make sure I don't have any outliers.

 

[Koolau]

I hear ya. We (and by we, I mean my wife) spent $10,100 on clothes in 2019 and $13,420 in 2018. YGTBSM!

I don't think DW AND I have spent that much on clothes in our lives - total.

Case in point: On her wedding day our daughter took one look at DW's outfit she planned to wear to the wedding and she didn't like it! She described what she wanted DW's outfit to look like. She wanted a very formal black dress instead of the quite formal black pants outfit DW had planned to wear.

We were in an unfamiliar city but DW and I took off to find a resale shop. DW found a dress she HOPED would fill the bill. It was $10 - but remarked to $5 at the checkout. Daughter LOVED it and could NOT imagine how DW had found such a fantastic outfit in such a short period of time. Daughter had NOT paid much attention to DW's buying habits over the years - and she still pays the price to some extent though circumstances and time and her hubby have cooled her spending habits somewhat. YMMV

 

[Nomad4hire]

Yeah, I think you are OK. Maybe take a part time job as they come available if suits you. Otherwise it seems you have plenty of slack to weather slim times.

+1

 

[Fishnfreak]

I’m withJDarnell, after ret clothes will drop,gifts(I don’t love anyone that much), med. (tricare as stated)misc...I see 1800 PLUS YOUR BLOWTHRU CASH to reallocate. Consider downsizing or refinance house..I downsized, after mil.and kids leaving. Didn’t need the PONDEROSA, RET.mil. At 40 ,10 more yrs working to get house paid off.and at 51 I quit , never regretted it and live good, medical is biggest break and is why many can’t ret. enjoy your retirement(just do it)

 

[plex]

Didn't read past the 1st page, but it depends quite a bit on what spending level that 90% represents as well. 90% of your normal budget and 90% of your maximum foreseeable desired budget can have quite a gap. For me the gap is smaller, about $8K/year, but personally I'm making sure to stick with it until I make up that difference, currently I'm at near 100% with my normal budget, but with my desired budget I'd be a bit below 90%, so the situations are basically similar, there are a couple scenarios where I drop off a cliff and end up in the -$500k range at the end of my life to immediately retire.

 

[gerntz]

No.

 

[SJ1_]

Hearing rumors that a RIF might be coming. Talked to my big boss and confirmed. Also discussed packages and being part of the RIF. With a minimum severance of 12 weeks, I can retire with a 90% probability of success (Ps). Most likely severance would be 26 weeks, but who knows for sure. Ps would be 95% with the larger package. Will be 55. Annual budget is $145k all in with $33k of that being purely discretionary blow that dough type spending.

Would you retire @ 90% Ps?

I retired with 100% chance discovered this site a little late in life. Knowing what I know now Yes. A lot of "things" that I needed when working I no longer need. Vacations were everything when I worked but now everyday life if fun.
Think the fact of all the stress made being away so great but now I don't have that stress.
How is the part time job market ? can always do that.
Good Luck!!

 

[walkinwood]

12 years into ER, this is an interesting question for me.

1) How did you arrive at your annual budget? We used our historical spend and then added a comfortable headroom over it. I think this is the best thing we did in our planning because it allowed us to be flexible when markets crashed (in our case, within 6 months of ER).


2) What method are you using to determine success? Constant SWR or variable. We settled on Bob Clyatt's 4/95 method which is variable & based on portfolio value. A requirement of course, is the ability to live on a smaller budget when things aren't going well. VPW on the bogleheads board is very interesting since it takes life expectancy into account too.


3) Are you taking other sources of income/wealth into account? We did not take SS into account though it will be sufficient for our basic needs when we take it at 70. We also did not include the value of our home. An inheritance may be in your future. We think of these as contingency plans.


4) Are you willing to work again? This was part of our plan and we got to put it into action in 2010 (we ER'd in May 2008). We worked for part of that year. In hindsight, we didn't need to go back to work, but it gave us great comfort to add to our savings instead of withdrawing from them. It also gave us greater confidence in being able to pull off ER successfully. Now, our labor capital is much lower, but if we needed to, we'd do that sooner than later.


5) Are you taking into account possible future reductions in spending? For us, our health insurance premiums will reduce when we go on Medicare, but we didn't account for it in our initial plans. ACA wasn't even on the horizon when we ER'd, so possible subsidies weren't considered either. The flip side is increased spending - we like to travel a little more luxuriously now than we did 10 years ago. Medical expenses & nursing care are so unpredictable that I just used SS payments as a contingency and decided that we would adjust our lifestyle to accommodate it.


I am sure there are other considerations which merit a great deal of thought. On the other hand, if you're flexible you can choose to just wing it. Life is short & unpredictable. Either way, good luck to you.

 

[Dtail]

In the last 2 months, I know one guy who died from a heart attack at age 61 during a workout. No history of heart issues.
When we were playing Pickleball, a guy who is 66 and very active on the court had a heart attack and only survived due to CPR given by his fellow players. Needed a doble bypass.
Life is sometimes truly too short......

 

[mickeyd]

In the end life is short. With all of that great pension cash flow I would already be retired. Live life to the fullest when retired!

 

[corn18]

Just to keep you updated: We trimmed the budget down to give us 98% Ps. Here's what changed:

 

[jollystomper]

Just to keep you updated: We trimmed the budget down to give us 98% Ps. Here's what changed:

I may have missed you mentioning how many people you were buying food for. 1,500 per month seems a lot to me *if* we are just talking 2 people, but there may be factors that I am not aware of. Is that combination of groceries and eating out/take out?

 

[corn18]

I may have missed you mentioning how many people you were buying food for. 1,500 per month seems a lot to me *if* we are just talking 2 people, but there may be factors that I am not aware of. Is that combination of groceries and eating out/take out?

2 people and includes food and dining. We drink too much when we dine out. Our typical dining out bill is $85 for two, and $30 of that is usually alcohol.

 

[cooch96]

I would absolutely FIRE with 90% probability of success; I'd still do it at 80%. Heck, I'd spin the wheel at 67% if my BS bucket was full.

 

[Andre1969]

Personally, I would wait until I got a 95% success without changing my lifestyle. Getting a PT gig once RIF'ed might help you if needed.

Back in my day 80% was just a "C", 90% was a middle "B" and 95% was just above the bottom end of an "A". Back then if I tried telling my folks that a "C" was just as good as an "A" it wouldn't fly. I guess I'm still stuck in that era financially.

Congratulations on getting financially to where you can be considering RE, possibly even getting there, and having some wiggle room if things go South.

Sounds like you went to a private school. Or, if you went back far enough, were public schools stricter when it came to giving out "A"s? I went to a Catholic school for 7th and 8th grade, and remember an A was 93-100. A "B" was something like 85-92. A "C" was 78-84, a "D" was 70-77, and anything below a 70 was failing. But in public schools, as long as I can remember, it was 90-100 being an A, 80-89 being a B, etc.

Anyway, for my own scale, I color code it. 95+ is green, 80-95 is yellow, and below 80 is red, and a hard fail. Now, if a given scenario is something like 94.6, I might be tempted to round up, depending on how my attitude is at the time. But if I was hovering around just north of 80, I wouldn't risk retiring unless the BS bucket was off the charts, and I was really burned out from my job.

 

[music-and-ski]

Hearing rumors that a RIF might be coming. Talked to my big boss and confirmed. Also discussed packages and being part of the RIF. With a minimum severance of 12 weeks, I can retire with a 90% probability of success (Ps). Most likely severance would be 26 weeks, but who knows for sure. Ps would be 95% with the larger package. Will be 55. Annual budget is $145k all in with $33k of that being purely discretionary blow that dough type spending.

Would you retire @ 90% Ps?

Is it 90% at fixed spending, or at Bernicke's Reality Retirement Plan spending reductions? If you are looking fixed spending scenarios, try some Bernicke spending formulas. In Bernicke, don't be afraid to bump up your initial spending in the early years e.g. to cover renovations, new cars, travel that you're unlikely to keep up when you are age 75+

 

[NW-Bound]

We can live well on $60,000 a year or less. And that would include a $5K 8 day travel to Europe.

I would spend double that, $10K, for 30 days in Europe. Or better, $15K for 2 months. Air travel is painful, and I want to maximize what I get in return.

Yes, our style of travel is quite inexpensive, with stays mostly at Airbnb. And we take simple pleasure such as walking about small towns, poking our nose in stores to see what the locals eat, how much they pay for staples, how they live.

PS. I hasten to add that we always rent an entire apartment. We can't share a room in someone's home.