Your Father's Stock Market is Never Coming Back

[FONT=&quot]Sir John Templeton: “The four most expensive words in the English language are 'This time it’s different.' ”[/FONT]
 
Paywall for me, too.
OP--can you give a good synopsis?
 
pacergal said:
Paywall for me, too.
OP--can you give a good synopsis?
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Clear cookies and you can typically get in for a few articles... but in short, the author is saying "Younger generations are reshaping the rules and conventions of investing. Older investors can't afford to dismiss them.".

He goes on to give examples of homebound youth opening Robinhood brokerage accounts and making amazing amounts of money, then talking about how they don't understand the difference (or care) between stocks (stonks) and crypto... etc. etc. He also talks about how "older" investors like "Jerry" who saved up $1.3M over 30-40 years are being eclipsed by these younger people making a few trades and having that same amount... or about the tech employee who just cashed in company stock worth millions.

At the end he's essentially saying the days of 60/40 AA and buy/hold are relics and the new world will be much more volatile and that older investors needing to nurse their portfolios through retirement drawdown stages need to be ready for this new reality.

I think I got that mostly accurate. Kind of a clickbait piece really but that's what I expect from Fortune... but there were a few things in there to think about - volatility being one of them due to 'casino' type expectations where the focus is speculative vs. investing. I'm not sure the author knows the difference.
 
The Robinhood crowd is no different than the Dot.com bubble, IMO. E-trade had the Robinhood role at the time, I had an E-trade account :LOL:
 
Most of those speculators will get burned eventually. I don't know when it will happen, but I believe it will happen. It has always happened in the past and I see no difference this time.
 
UnrealizedPotential said:
Most of those speculators will get burned eventually. I don't know when it will happen, but I believe it will happen. It has always happened in the past and I see no difference this time.
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Actually, there is already a big distortion in speculative results. Only the winners post. Taleb refers to the losers voices as "silent evidence." His illustration is this:
"Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication was that praying protects you from drowning. Diagoras asked, “Where are the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?”
​
I pay no attention to the stories of big winners. They are always there and usually true, but they are not an accurate picture of the situation.
 
We are in a 10(?) year bull market. I think 1 or 2 pull backs. But mostly straight up. Everybody thinks they are genius when the market goes like this. Applies to the housing market now too. A pullback where young uns lose real money & forever & we will see stories on how bad off all these people are. Probably already written.

I remember crash of 1987 & it hurt to lose some money. By staying the course I was able to recover. Then '08 came & I was 100% stock. Ouchie. I readjusted my AA

*full disclosure...I did not read the article
 
Yipper said:
...
I wonder if the younger generation he writes about in this article does though.
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After seeing so much outrage on Twitter yesterday about "Robinhood" stopping the trades of AMC (in spite of the fact that the stoppage was done by the NYSE) I would say that there are a LOT of "investors" that have no clue as to what they are doing. They were playing Candy Crush a few months ago.
 
Yipper said:
Thanks for the link bypassing the paywall.

I retract my comment that the author doesn’t know the difference between speculation and investment because he clearly does.

I wonder if the younger generation he writes about in this article does though.
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Actually the author is a pretty astute guy. You may see him on CNBC quite often. I've followed his Reformed Broker website for years and he has many no nonsense articles in there.
 
finnski1 said:
Actually the author is a pretty astute guy. You may see him on CNBC quite often. I've followed his Reformed Broker website for years and he has many no nonsense articles in there.
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Yeah - I retracted after looking at more of his writing on that site. I'll be the first to admit I didn't give him enough credit. That said - I still think this was mostly written for 'clicks' vs. really sharing anything new.
 
Interesting article. It resonates with me. Justin, my 11 year old grandkid called the other day to check whether it was a good time to come over to log into his custodial Schwab account to see how his stocks and stock slices are doing. He said, "I'm stopping by Starbucks on the way, can I pick something up for you"?

He picks his stocks about the way the kids in the article do. He would really like to get into crypto but he can't have his own Robinhood account. When I set this up for him last October, 50% went into a total stock index. New $ that he brings in can go anywhere he wants. I told him to watch it over a few years and see how the index growth compares (percentage wise) to the stocks he picks. So far, he is beating the index. But time will tell. His two younger sisters also have small custodial accounts. Justin is their FA.
 
I was able to read it no problem via a private window.

That very same article could have been written in 1999.
 
I was only partially awake, so I don't know if this is an exact quote, but there was a 'younger' analyst on CNBC earlier today. I believe it was Carl Quintanilla who asked him if valuation methods had changed ?

He said valuation methods used in the past were lazy & boring metrics :)
 
Just to show that what goes around comes around, and this time it's different, just like every other time, there was a relevant episode of "Leave it to Beaver" on the other day. Wally and Beaver started getting interested in the stock market. Ward suggested a utility stock, Mayfield Power, that was fairly stable. But Eddie kept talking up a riskier aerospace company called Jet Electro.

So, Ward logs onto TD Ameritrade...oops, I mean, calls his broker. Initially he orders some Mayfield Power for the boys. But they keep checking Yahoo Finance....er, I mean, the business section of the newspaper. And they get bummed out that Mayfield Power just sits there, while Jet Electro keeps shooting up. They whine, and Ward, begrudgingly, sells the Mayfield, and buys Jet Electro instead. Initially, the stock keeps shooting up. But then, they lose a government contract, and the stock tanks.

Luckily, Ward had set a stop-loss with his online broker...er, I mean, he had called his broker, and told them if Jet Electro dropped below a certain amount, to sell, and put it back in Mayfield Power.

Overall, doesn't sound so different from the way things are, nowadays. Maybe a lot of these young'uns should watch more classic tv...they might learn something! :angel:
 
Andre1969 said:
...there was a relevant episode of "Leave it to Beaver" on the other day.

So, Ward logs onto TD Ameritrade...oops, I mean, calls his broker. :angel:
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Well done sir! Those old shows still have something to teach to this new generation!
 
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Andre1969 said:
Just to show that what goes around comes around, and this time it's different, just like every other time, there was a relevant episode of "Leave it to Beaver" on the other day. Wally and Beaver started getting interested in the stock market. Ward suggested a utility stock, Mayfield Power, that was fairly stable. But Eddie kept talking up a riskier aerospace company called Jet Electro.

So, Ward logs onto TD Ameritrade...oops, I mean, calls his broker. Initially he orders some Mayfield Power for the boys. But they keep checking Yahoo Finance....er, I mean, the business section of the newspaper. And they get bummed out that Mayfield Power just sits there, while Jet Electro keeps shooting up. They whine, and Ward, begrudgingly, sells the Mayfield, and buys Jet Electro instead. Initially, the stock keeps shooting up. But then, they lose a government contract, and the stock tanks.

Luckily, Ward had set a stop-loss with his online broker...er, I mean, he had called his broker, and told them if Jet Electro dropped below a certain amount, to sell, and put it back in Mayfield Power.

Overall, doesn't sound so different from the way things are, nowadays. Maybe a lot of these young'uns should watch more classic tv...they might learn something! :angel:
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Cute!

I just remember all the crazy day trading yahoos in the late 90s and even early 2000s. Then suddenly few had that self-employed day job anymore.
 
Yipper said:
Yeah - I retracted after looking at more of his writing on that site. I'll be the first to admit I didn't give him enough credit. That said - I still think this was mostly written for 'clicks' vs. really sharing anything new.
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Yes. The people he writes for "know better."
 
USGrant1962 said:
The Robinhood crowd is no different than the Dot.com bubble, IMO. E-trade had the Robinhood role at the time, I had an E-trade account :LOL:
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LOL. Me too. But this time it IS going be different. Remember Tulips?
 
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