Your Father's Stock Market is Never Coming Back

Cute!

I just remember all the crazy day trading yahoos in the late 90s and even early 2000s. Then suddenly few had that self-employed day job anymore.

I remember that period and how every pilot in the Air Force was going to "get out" because they were going to make millions. You would go to a simulator refresher class and instead of pre-briefing the upcoming training scenario, those yahoos (and instructor) would banter on and on about being day traders. Some things never change. :cool:
 
Cute!

I just remember all the crazy day trading yahoos in the late 90s and even early 2000s. Then suddenly few had that self-employed day job anymore.

I have a friend... mid-40's at the time, smart guy (chemical engineer) who decided to take a voluntary separation offer and use the money to fund his new day trading career. First 6 months there was lots of bragging about working from home (remember this was a while ago) and how much money he was making focused on trading full-time.

A little over the one year anniversary mark we learned he was interviewing for professional positions in his prior field and finding it difficult. Turned out he lost a good chunk of money and his DW (also a friend) had just about had it with him chasing the next 'sure thing'.

We probably all know that "get rich quick" person in our lives... another one is my own DB. I won't share ALL the previous 'schemes' but earliest I can remember was the big argument we had about low-cost index funds vs. stock picking. He liked to bring up a few big winners he had for a while then just sort of dropped the stock market subject over time (which usually means he's now in the red). The latest thing he's all about is crypto this and that all the time for the last year or so... and now it's NFTs. Sheesh.
 
Makes me think of the people who brag about the killing they are making by flipping houses. So you buy a junky house, spend $$$$ and sweat fixing it up, put it up for sale and...it just sits there. Eventually you sell at a loss just to get rid of it.

The window of opportunity passed by while you were working on that stupid house.
 
Cute!

I just remember all the crazy day trading yahoos in the late 90s and even early 2000s. Then suddenly few had that self-employed day job anymore.

Back around that timeframe I worked with a guy who was born in 1957. He was 13 years older than me, so I had it in my mind that he was wiser than me, in many respects. At the time, I was living with my grandmother, only a few miles from work, trying to get back on my feet after a divorce.

I had a few antique cars at Grandmom's house, and this guy was into old cars, so one day we swung by, on our lunch break so he could see them. My grandmother met this guy, and for some reason was taken in by his smooth talking. She got it in her mind that he was really smart, and financially savvy.

She told me, a few days later, that I should try to learn everything I could from him. Well, let's see...I learned NOT to swap out cars more often than some people change their underwear. I learned NOT to play with penny stocks, unless it was money you could afford to lose. I learned NOT to buy more house than I could afford, and to NOT take out loans against the equity if it appreciated in value. I learned to NOT live beyond my means, in general.
And, I also learned NOT to marry a gold digger. Now, admittedly, my ex-wife had her faults, and they were many, but "gold digger" was not one of them!

Anyway, at one point, he was working a regular 40 hour/week job with me, plus pulling another ~35 hours at a bookstore. His wife had some kind of issues that let her get disability, but she was also babysitting kids on the downlow, pocketing the money and not reporting it. Yet they STILL couldn't make ends meet!

When it all came crashing down, they got lucky. This time, at least. He told me they paid about $400K for their home, in 1999, but I just looked up the records online and it was even cheaper, $338K. They sold in 2003 for about $650K, and had just enough profit to wipe out all their debt, and bought a much cheaper house, for something like $269K. But, then they started living large again, and then he had a stroke, and had to go on disability. So they lost that house, and last I heard, they're now down somewhere in Appalachia, living off whatever they can eke out from disability.

So, in the end yeah, I learned a LOT from him. Basically, to do the opposite of what he does!

I also remember, around 1999-2000, for some reason, my Mom got the bright idea to start investing in something with more potential than just savings bonds, CDs, and other low-risk stuff. So, she went with some company called Genworth, which I think is part of GE, if it's still around? Anyway, she talked my uncle into putting some money in with them, and Grandmom as well. None of them invested more than they could afford to lose, but they got screwed pretty royally.

So yeah, good times, in general. :rolleyes:
 
Makes me think of the people who brag about the killing they are making by flipping houses. So you buy a junky house, spend $$$$ and sweat fixing it up, put it up for sale and...it just sits there. Eventually you sell at a loss just to get rid of it.

The window of opportunity passed by while you were working on that stupid house.

I have that guy in my neighborhood as well... bought his first 'flip' for low $$ since the house was run down and really out of date and need a lot of TLC. Unfortunately for him, he went overboard and spent way too much on architectural changes requiring some serious engineering effort. He then didn't have enough money to do the finishing touches all that well and probably lost 5-10% on the whole transaction. Did he learn? Nope - did it all again with a MUCH bigger property. Sat for over a year and sold for FAR less... again - probably another 5-10% loss.

He hasn't purchased anything in a while from what I can see. :facepalm:
 
I just remember all the crazy day trading yahoos in the late 90s and even early 2000s. Then suddenly few had that self-employed day job anymore.

The neighbor that built and lived in the (very large) house behind us introduced himself as a day trader and was super proud of himself and his "work". That was in the early 2000's. He wasn't the nicest guy in the neighborhood and we had a few issues with him over the years. Then one day they were gone and their giant house on many acres was foreclosed. Maybe he's flipping houses now? :LOL:
 
Cute!

I just remember all the crazy day trading yahoos in the late 90s and even early 2000s. Then suddenly few had that self-employed day job anymore.
+++

I watched a few people whose carreer was in the fast path leave to trade. Many came back with tails between their legs to also find their fast past shifted to a slow ride.
 
The premise of this article is that they are changing they way the market works. I can understand how the next generation are trading different but I don't understand (other than a few specific short term stock plays) how they can influence the broad market. Institutional investors control 80% of the market.

These next generation traders can only have a fraction of a percent of the "market". Sure, they are having fun, some making lots of money, for now, and some losing money. But they are not "changing the market", IMO.
 
He picks his stocks about the way the kids in the article do. He would really like to get into crypto but he can't have his own Robinhood account. When I set this up for him last October, 50% went into a total stock index. New $ that he brings in can go anywhere he wants. I told him to watch it over a few years and see how the index growth compares (percentage wise) to the stocks he picks. So far, he is beating the index. But time will tell. His two younger sisters also have small custodial accounts. Justin is their FA.
That's pretty cool!

Just to show that what goes around comes around, and this time it's different, just like every other time, there was a relevant episode of "Leave it to Beaver" on the other day. Wally and Beaver started getting interested in the stock market. Ward suggested a utility stock, Mayfield Power, that was fairly stable. But Eddie kept talking up a riskier aerospace company called Jet Electro.

...

Luckily, Ward had set a stop-loss with his online broker...er, I mean, he had called his broker, and told them if Jet Electro dropped below a certain amount, to sell, and put it back in Mayfield Power.
I remember that episode. The boys had inherited some money, or had been gifted it. I always wondered how it would've been if Jet Electro had just dipped enough to trigger the stop-loss, then soared. How would Ward have broken it to them that they really did have to finish high school because they no longer owned Jet Electro?

There was kind of a similar event in the 70s TV show Barney Miller. Some guy liquidated everything to fully invest his gold, and Barney helped his wife convinced him to back out of that. I just verified the timing. That episode was aired 5/11/78. Gold hit a peak in Jan 1980 that wouldn't show again until 2008.
 
Bet its not different this time!

The author points out that young investors have seen nothing but a rising market. Even the down market last spring lasted only a few weeks. Anything they have tried has made money. Its easy!

In his latest book, The Delusions of Crowds, W. Berstein identifies 3 or 4 metrics shared by all bubbles. One is young, naive investors that do not remember the last bubble. I know what I am betting on. :)
 
TLDR all, but I'd suggest this threads readers watch Ghost Exchange on AMZN prime for free.

Many times particular market makers, of which my last count was near 50, all agreed. The financial industry "invents so many new products to make themselves ($$) its yrs before the S.E.C catches up to to them".

The squeaky wheel gets the grease.
Old adages are around for a reason,.. imo.

I'm not sure of the exact vernacular, simply watch "Ghost Exchanges" first 1/2 hr. for claimed insights.

IIRC Harvey Pitt has great input in the movie also.
His input sounded genuine to me.

Good luck & Best wishes......
 
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Most of those speculators will get burned eventually. I don't know when it will happen, but I believe it will happen. It has always happened in the past and I see no difference this time.

After seeing so much outrage on Twitter yesterday about "Robinhood" stopping the trades of AMC (in spite of the fact that the stoppage was done by the NYSE) I would say that there are a LOT of "investors" that have no clue as to what they are doing. They were playing Candy Crush a few months ago.

Aiden and Lakshmi will get their heads handed to them one day. We know sometimes the markets are irrational to the upside but eventually it ends and it ends in tears. When all you have ever seen in your short life is Bitcoin type growth you think that is normal, they are in for a rude awakening.
 
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth
Mike Tyson
 
OMG.. this thread is so relevant right now. My 30yo nephew just texted me how he followed some guy on reddit or something and invested 3000 in BITCOIN today and just cashed out for 54000

he said he cold walk me through on how to do it, but historically he has trouble paying his own car payment every month.. LOL i just told him no thanks too risky for me
 
OMG.. this thread is so relevant right now. My 30yo nephew just texted me how he followed some guy on reddit or something and invested 3000 in BITCOIN today and just cashed out for 54000

he said he cold walk me through on how to do it, but historically he has trouble paying his own car payment every month.. LOL i just told him no thanks too risky for me

Congrats on him for cashing out! Now if only he won’t put it all back in!
 
The authors article can be found on his website

https://thereformedbroker.com/2021/06/02/changing-of-the-guard/

I follow josh occasionally.

Thanks. I went to the above link, then followed another link provided there to read the article.

I sense sarcasm in his article. I did not realize so much of the current crap was just like the dotcoms and Internet stocks of the late 90s.

It's OK with me. The kids will just have to learn the lesson by experience it themselves.

Aiden is taking profits from Bitcoin and Tesla and GameStop and Ethereum and Polkadot and AMC and Riot Blockchain. He’s not going to take Jerry’s advice on what to do with the proceeds, either. He’s not putting some in the bank. He’s not buying any “Spider ETFs,” whatever that is. His gold, his rules. He’s buying NFTs instead. Crypto art. Fractions of Ferraris. NBA video clips...
 
I think he meant $5400 not $54,000. It’s volatile but not THAT volatile!
 
There are a few articles about the history of daytraders and many talk about the run up to the dotcom bust.

I don’t think I remember the significance of the SOES change at the time, but it sure seems awfully close to the dotcom bust.
2000: The SOES Advantage is Eliminated
Prior to 2000, one of the biggest advantages day traders had was SOES, the system that ensured that trades under 1,000 were addressed before trades over 1,000, giving an advantage to smaller traders. The system was designed to encourage individual investors to enter the market, but it eventually led to day traders having an unfair advantage.

In the year 2000, the SOES was changed. The biggest change was that it eliminated the advantages for day traders.

The Dot Com Bubble Bursts
The changing of the SOES was one discouraging turn of events for day traders. However, soon after the SOES was changed, another devastating change took place: the dot com bubble burst.

As a result, many day traders went bankrupt or lost a significant amount of their investments. Many were scared away from the profession and sought new careers. The heyday of being a day trader appeared to be over.

This marked the end of a unique era of day trading. Prior to the dot com bubble’s burst, day trading was viewed like the Wild West. Day traders were looking to make a quick buck. Investors were focused on pump and dump schemes. Regulations were limited.

After the dot com bubble burst, however, day trading would become much more similar to ordinary investing – it was something ordinary investors could easily participate in.
https://bebusinessed.com/history/history-day-trading/

The article also mentions that
Day trading as a profession took another hit when, two weeks after the Barton shootings, the North American Securities Administrators Association released a report stating that 7 out of 10 day traders lose everything. They don’t just lose money overall – they lose everything they’ve invested.

Just another interesting walk down memory lane. I guess today’s stock speculators think they’ve invented something new.
 
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+++

I watched a few people whose carreer was in the fast path leave to trade. Many came back with tails between their legs to also find their fast past shifted to a slow ride.

Not long after the dotcom crash our company had a job fair to reduce the number of open jobs they were trying to fill. Some managers with openings were there to talk to applicants and I was drafted to help direct people to the right manager based on their job interest and background. So I would have to quickly scan each resume.

I still remember one guy whose resume showed 15 years at a pretty big company in town, rising from entry level to spending the last 4 years as Exec VP of manufacturing, ending a year earlier. He came right out and told me the reason he left his job was to be a full-time day trader after making some lucky investing moves that panned out, but his good fortune didn't last and he needed to get back into the workforce. That left an impression on me.
 

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