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Old 09-16-2020, 01:20 PM   #21
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Yeah, ok, maybe 75 years ago? But for as long as most all of us have been adults there have been satellites and radar, so we've known about the ones that "died on the vine", and tracked every tropical wave coming off the coast of africa for at least the last 40 years.

There are more storms on average for the last 15-20 years than the 15-20 that preceded those. And they are reportedly bigger, and higher intensity, in the past 5 years than the 5 before that. So, pardon me as a floridian, the concern is greater in 2020 than it was in 2000.
New and better satellite systems are launched over time which improve detection and better measure changes in intensity. A new system was launched last year as an example.

Storms run in cycles that appear to be random. And 15-20 years is a very short period of time. There are many 5 year periods in history when you can say there were more and bigger storms than the prior 5 years because they seem to arrive in bunches.

In fact, the last 15-20 year period you mention has actually included the longest drought of major hurricanes landfalling in the continental US in history, 2005-2017.
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Old 09-16-2020, 01:36 PM   #22
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New and better satellite systems are launched over time which improve detection and better measure changes in intensity. A new system was launched last year as an example.

Storms run in cycles that appear to be random. And 15-20 years is a very short period of time. There are many 5 year periods in history when you can say there were more and bigger storms than the prior 5 years because they seem to arrive in bunches.

In fact, the last 15-20 year period you mention has actually included the longest drought of major hurricanes landfalling in the continental US in history, 2005-2017.
Be careful. Might get into trouble with this crowd.
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Old 09-16-2020, 01:41 PM   #23
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We definitely did. Wanted to be on the east coast but stayed inland to avoid serious hurricane damage/disruption which will reportedly get worse (frequency and strength). And I’ve lived in TX & FL, but if temperatures increase, we won’t want to be there in summer. So we choose a place that’s a couple hours from the ocean, a couple hours from the mountains, near a large enough metro area to have good culture-restaurants-shopping, reasonable COL and not too far south but enough to enjoy very mild winters. Never lived here before and didn’t know anyone, thrilled after 13 months...
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Old 09-16-2020, 01:44 PM   #24
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The small forest community in Oregon in which we planned to buy a house burned entirely to the ground a few days ago.

So, yes, our plans have definitely changed!
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Old 09-16-2020, 01:50 PM   #25
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We would recommend a concrete block home vs stick, in an "X" flood zone. Otherwise insurance could be prohibitive. All homes must have an elevation certificate if close to the beach, otherwise insurance companies will not write policies.
Haha, there is another reason to hate an insurance. it has to fit to be covered. I was thinking to build a cob/earthbag house or earthship house etc.
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Old 09-16-2020, 03:33 PM   #26
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...In fact, the last 15-20 year period you mention has actually included the longest drought of major hurricanes landfalling in the continental US in history, 2005-2017.
Just so we're clear, are you trying to say that your research has led you to the opinion that the threat of hurricanes, and therefore their impact to ones' geographical choices, should be of no more a consideration than it was decades ago?
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Old 09-16-2020, 03:53 PM   #27
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I live on a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay. We retired here in 2007. Some areas you could go to in a car around here no longer exist. Others will no longer exist as time goes by but are experiencing more water. When we were looking for a house we always asked where the water came for hurricane Isabel. Everyone around here knew exactly where it came. If they hemmed and hawed we knew it wasn't good.
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:05 PM   #28
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Just so we're clear, are you trying to say that your research has led you to the opinion that the threat of hurricanes, and therefore their impact to ones' geographical choices, should be of no more a consideration than it was decades ago?
Facts are not opinions.

From NOAA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/image...torm_Count.jpg

If you want to cherry pick a decade, you can find one somewhat lower than today.

BTW, this is for ALL storms in the ATLANTIC. Many/most did not make landfall.
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:25 PM   #29
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Wondering if/how folks are taking climate change implications into account when planning where to live in retirement.
Doesn't make my planning list.... Not even a remote consideration.
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:30 PM   #30
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For family reasons we ended up in northern West Virginia, and may move to a CCRC in southeastern PA. The only downside to both locations is winter, and if global warming happens, hooray for that because neither one of us likes cold weather. I'll hang on to the snow blower though, just in case. Any hurricanes are tired out by the time they get to us, and the only flooding to happen involves local streams and is clear in a day or two. So all in all, either one is not a bad choice. Those who want four seasons like it too.
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:43 PM   #31
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We still plan on retiring to Arizona. I havenít noticed much climate change in the Phoenix area in the 18 years that we have been going there. Itís usually hot in the summer, nice in winter.

But Iíd like to retire somewhere north of Phoenix where summers are cooler. Maybe northern Arizona is a little warmer than it used to be, but thatís ok.

But in Illinois, I think that our winters are not as brutal as they used to be, making the need to get out not as desperate as it used to be.
Perhaps Flagstaff?
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:45 PM   #32
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To me, the downside of living in the Northern Tier is not the cold but the short days. Dusk at 4:45 is pretty depressing.
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Old 09-16-2020, 04:48 PM   #33
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We would recommend a concrete block home vs stick, in an "X" flood zone. Otherwise insurance could be prohibitive. All homes must have an elevation certificate if close to the beach, otherwise insurance companies will not write policies.
+1 plus the house should have the latest hurricane build codes which I believe is 2006 and later if they change their mind and go for resale.
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Old 09-16-2020, 05:08 PM   #34
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One thing folks should consider is your tolerance for any kind of disaster. Have you ever been through a flood? Major disasters are different from watching the news. I remember my late in-laws.

They built a home on Marathon Key, a beautiful place halfway down the Florida Keys. You could look out over the Gulf and Atlantic from the same room. I asked about hurricanes and flooding, "no problem they turn all the lanes northbound to evacuate". Then Andrew threatened and they couldn't get out of their neighborhood! BIL flew his plane in and was the last plane out of Marathon before they shut down the airport. While there was no damage they put the place on the market a few weeks later.
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Old 09-16-2020, 05:39 PM   #35
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One thing folks should consider is your tolerance for any kind of disaster. Have you ever been through a flood? Major disasters are different from watching the news. I remember my late in-laws.

They built a home on Marathon Key, a beautiful place halfway down the Florida Keys. You could look out over the Gulf and Atlantic from the same room. I asked about hurricanes and flooding, "no problem they turn all the lanes northbound to evacuate". Then Andrew threatened and they couldn't get out of their neighborhood! BIL flew his plane in and was the last plane out of Marathon before they shut down the airport. While there was no damage they put the place on the market a few weeks later.
That is certainly a cautionary story. Thanks for sharing it.
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Old 09-16-2020, 06:06 PM   #36
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Of course the weather in the last 20 years would influence my choice of where to retire, but I'm not sure any kind of projection would cause me to change my mind. It seems that whether you experience a negative consequence is highly stochastic. The same would be true if the climate "got worse", "got better", or stayed the same. You drive 1000 miles on a bumpy road or 1000 miles on a slightly more bumpy road. No matter which you choose, your butt will be sore when you get there.
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Old 09-16-2020, 06:17 PM   #37
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I'm good in the Mid South. By the time things deteriorate to an unbearable level, I'll be 120 years old.

We still love the Ultra Low COL here. We're 400 miles from the coast so this week's Hurricane will just be a rain storm when it arrives. It's the first hurricane to hit the state since 2004--not bad.
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Old 09-16-2020, 07:11 PM   #38
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As I get older and noticing how things are changing, the best solution is to continue with my plans but not buying a house. Not having a house allows for more options and minimum stuff to worry about.
This is were we are at. No house and not much stuff. We have thought about our next move if our extended family living arrangement comes to an end. Climate change is low on the list. General climate and community is very high. And, I know for the area we would move, we would try to find a place that is less likely to be destroyed by floods, winds, fire etc. even if we want to be closer to some nice feature in the community. We would forego the lake house for example.
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Old 09-16-2020, 07:49 PM   #39
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At one time I thought of buying a place on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It is a beautiful place and low cost of living. But I looked at the sea rise and hurricane projections and decided not to--instead I bought n the NC mountains. I am glad I did. There is only one road on the Outer Banks-- Highway 12-- and it is now frequently under water.
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Old 09-16-2020, 09:48 PM   #40
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I used to think we were golden here in SW Washington State. We have a fairly mild climate year round, enough rain to keep things green, no threats of hurricanes, and living at 1500 feet we have no worries about sea level rise or flooding.

Then the climate started changing... Summers seem to be getting drier. Less snow in the winter means more drought in the summer. Forest fires seem to be stronger and more frequent each year. Oh, and there was that volcano that erupted. We've even had a few tornado's in recent years. Let's not forget the threat of earthquakes.

Honestly, I think every area on the planet has it's own issues, and climate change will only make them worse. You can run, but there's nowhere to hide!
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