Believe me, I considered that before we purchased, and did some additional research. We are far enough north and east of I-5, which puts us in a (relatively) safe zone. No place is perfect, of course, but we've chosen as well as we can, give the risk variables out there.
Climate Change considerations on where to live?
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Believe me, I considered that before we purchased, and did some additional research. We are far enough north and east of I-5, which puts us in a (relatively) safe zone. No place is perfect, of course, but we've chosen as well as we can, give the risk variables out there.
Ronstar
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I bought a Scottsdale townhome in 2002 and have been researching house purchases in the valley for the last 5 years. I too am concerned about a possible lack of water in the future. But everything I've read recently shows that the powers that be have the problem handled.
https://azbigmedia.com/business/environment/arizona-water-here-are-the-reasons-to-be-optimistic/
The Phoenix area's water needs are served by CAP (Central Arizona Project) - water via canal from the Colorado River, and SRP (Salt River Project) - dams, canals and wells along the Salt River.
CAP generally serves the north area, and SRP serves the south area. I can't find the website explaining this, but I've read that CAP may have issues serving future growth, while SRP does not. This could explain why most of the Phoenix area growth is in the south in the SRP service area.
DW and I would like to relocate north of Phoenix in Cave Creek/Carefree. But maybe somewhere in the SRP served area would be a better idea. Or maybe somewhere else in the country where water is plentiful.
Our house was in Tucson, which is near the end of the line for distribution of water from the CAP, and gets nothing from the SRP. Tucson has a fairly large water basin, but has relied more heavily on CAP water over the past 20 years. As long as some CAP water finds its way to Tucson, there should be enough, but if the CAP allocation decreases substantially, Tucson could have a problem. Several states continually wrangle over the CAP water from the Colorado river, and in recent years Arizona's share has not kept pace with its growth.
While water was part of the equation, for us, the larger factor was increasing temperatures, and the lengthening of summer heat to 5-6 months of the year--it's just too much. Winters are great, though!
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Certainly, I would like to consider climate in choosing a residence in retirement - although that will have to be one factor - not the only factor.
As far as climate change, that is something which seems to have been ongoing since the creation of the planet - albeit, perhaps currently at an expediated rate. I recalled complaining to my mother at about age 10; that the snow fall wasn't as deep as it had been a few years previously (although there were some exceptions). And since I read The Big Wave in grammar school, it occurred to me that having my home disappear under the sea was something To. Be. Avoided.
The interactive map does not show my house below sea level during my lifetime - and the weather, while not perfect, does have some days I have enjoyed. I don't believe that it will be the weather/ climate change that motivates us to move - but never say never.
As far as climate change, that is something which seems to have been ongoing since the creation of the planet - albeit, perhaps currently at an expediated rate. I recalled complaining to my mother at about age 10; that the snow fall wasn't as deep as it had been a few years previously (although there were some exceptions). And since I read The Big Wave in grammar school, it occurred to me that having my home disappear under the sea was something To. Be. Avoided.
The interactive map does not show my house below sea level during my lifetime - and the weather, while not perfect, does have some days I have enjoyed. I don't believe that it will be the weather/ climate change that motivates us to move - but never say never.
LRDave
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I think water is going to be a bigger problem than most of us imagine - and sooner than we think - and many more places than just the SW.
Ronstar
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This is one area where Chicago has no problem. They have the largest inland water treatment plant in the world with a capacity of 1.4 billion gallons per day. The plant serves Chicago and approximately 160 surrounding communities.
SpinDoctorTX
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Speaking of water... DH just made fun of me filling a bunch of water bottles, since our dramatic news guys sometimes have a storm coming straight at our house, yet missing it by 300 miles. I'm going to fill the guest tub too.
We're supposed to be on the dirty side of things, so I take no chances. We'll see whom is laughing later if we lose power or drinkable water is an issue!
We're supposed to be on the dirty side of things, so I take no chances. We'll see whom is laughing later if we lose power or drinkable water is an issue!
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steady saver
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What a great thread! The topic of where to live has been on my mind as retirement is literally around the corner (end of month) and I'm mindful of changes in climate. I'm in hurricane and flooding territory, most recently having endured Hurricane Harvey (though thankfully our home was spared). I'm a hot weather kind of person but it is definitely feeling hotter this past few years. I seem to notice that much more on our rural property a couple of hours away. I guess I'm just more tuned into weather and nature out there. Anyway, part of us fantasizes about just selling it all and moving but where? Midpack describes what we "think" we're looking for from a weather and "things to do" standpoint (we even went to NC years ago to check it out with retirement in mind but concluded we had no family or connections there so "would we want to take that leap?"), but fast forward and our adult children are just 3 hours away and I'm not sure I want to take that leap. That said, I'm ready to downsize to one property and it seems that selling our home in the city makes sense. Except there are more factors than weather...And I'd like the real estate market in our particular area to be more seller friendly. Right now we have 4 properties available on our street alone, something unheard of in years past.
aja8888
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Notmuch of a problem around here as every once in a while we get a 53" rainstorm!
Then there are the frequent 10" ones.
dixonge
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Mod Note: This has been a good thread so far. Let's keep it that way.
Leo1277
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Well DUH - that's why they call it climate *change* !
Actually one has to be very careful about such statements, and both are not quite correct. First, "climate" is the long term average of the weather. To determine the climate, one has to average the things one is interested in, like temperature, rainfall, numbers of fires etc, over time periods so that the average becomes stable, i.e. one has "good statistics", as the scientist would say. For events that are more rare, like floods or fires, this may take many years to get a meaningful answer; a good way to get a sense of this is how many of the "events" you are interested in occur in the time window you use for averaging.
The statistical error of your result can be estimated from the square root of the number of events you have. It's the same kind of deal as with the margin of error in election polling, where a bit more than 1000 poll participants gives you an error bar around 3%. So to count e.g. flood probabilities, you need a window with 1000 floods to determine things with around 3% accuracy; and that can be a pretty long time window.
That part gives you the climate. To measure climate change, you now have to compare two long enough windows so that the difference in the number of events in the two windows is outside the statistical error bar. And that is starting to become a rather tricky proposition.
To tie individual weather events like today's flood or today's fire to a change in climate usually does not work. It is comparable to an election where last time party A won, but this time party B won, and then picking a random voter from this election and automatically assuming he must have voted for party B, because on average the voters this time voted for party B. It just doesn't work that way.
Since climate change is overall a topic that draws many emotions, it is important to try to be as clear as possible about these underlying concepts, and in particular to be very careful when trying to explain certain weather effects you observe in terms of the actual, long term, slow change of the climate.
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dixonge
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No one ever gets my sense of humor. And yet I'm sure this isn't my fault. If only we could determine where the problem lies...
(stop looking at me!)To be clear, my attempted humor was aimed at purely neutral on the political spectrum. Many things can and are attributed to climate change (see list of examples from MonteCFO), and all of them, in fact, represent changes. See? Funny! Scientific phrase vs common-use phrase. Can't you hear everyone laughing
OK, I'll stop now...
Koolau
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
When we picked our retirement home here in Paradise, "Climate Change" was a new ice age. Now that it's apocalyptic storms and inundation, I still think we'll stay put.
Back in the heartland we had the prospect of tornadoes (one through our front yard one year - another through our back yard the next year. And that was during the ice age). Oh, and did anyone mention the New Madrid Fault rupture.? Felt many small quakes from it, so...
Not being political at all. Just sayin' that it would be difficult to pick a location no matter one's perspective on climate change. Too many variables to consider. Too many potential hazards to avoid in this world.
My main considerations when picking a final retirement place were: Almost certainly in the USA. Certainly good weather, year round. Everything else - negotiable - including climate change.
My world philosophy is always represented in my tag line. One of my back up tag lines is: If the gators don't getcha, the skeeters will. YMMV
Back in the heartland we had the prospect of tornadoes (one through our front yard one year - another through our back yard the next year. And that was during the ice age). Oh, and did anyone mention the New Madrid Fault rupture.? Felt many small quakes from it, so...
Not being political at all. Just sayin' that it would be difficult to pick a location no matter one's perspective on climate change. Too many variables to consider. Too many potential hazards to avoid in this world.
My main considerations when picking a final retirement place were: Almost certainly in the USA. Certainly good weather, year round. Everything else - negotiable - including climate change.
My world philosophy is always represented in my tag line. One of my back up tag lines is: If the gators don't getcha, the skeeters will. YMMV
Markola
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This all makes me even more glad we live in the capital city of Minnesota, where we own a house at the top of a hill in our neighborhood. I expect the town will be growing, so please come on up and resettle in increasingly balmy Minnesota, the “New Sunshine State,” so you can drive up my property value.[emoji1360]
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LOL. Attended the U of M and Macalester. So what you are telling me is that the 2-3 weeks of 20 below every winter is now only 10 below? I love MN from May to September. October to April you can keep it. Are the mosquito's getting any smaller? Huge back in the day. Official state bird correct? LOL
Lot's of tornado's seem to run through the NW suburbs of Mpls if I remember correctly.
skipro33
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Besides fire, the most recent of catastrophes in California, there is also water shortage. The current leaders are aiming to make it law that water use will be restricted to 55 gallons per day per person. Right now, DW and I use a hair over 1,000 a day during summer and around 350 a day during winter. No accommodation for lot size or use. We are on 5 acres and raise food crops and animals.
Next; mud slides after the fires. Happens every year. Last year shut down the coastal highway for several months isolating towns.
Followed by; Earthquakes. We haven't heard from those for a while so way over due.
I do not recommend California for retirement choice due to climate change.
Next; mud slides after the fires. Happens every year. Last year shut down the coastal highway for several months isolating towns.
Followed by; Earthquakes. We haven't heard from those for a while so way over due.
I do not recommend California for retirement choice due to climate change.
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kcowan
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Likely water pipeline?
Chicago does empty its effluent into the river now so it is a transfer but to the Mississippi.
geeky_grrl
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If you want to see some crazy water plans you should read Cadillac Desert. People had proposed piping the Mississippi to West Texas in the 60s. It would have required some absurd number of nuclear power plants to pump all that water uphill.
I think there also some proposals in the same era to dam all of the rivers in British Columbia to make a giant reservoir to supply California with water.
Ronstar
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Speaking of effluent.
I read somewhere than 9 people drank the water before it comes out of faucets in New Orleans.
Montecfo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Many things can and are attributed to climate change (see list of examples from MonteCFO), and all of them, in fact, represent changes. See? Funny! Scientific phrase vs common-use phrase. Can't you hear everyone laughing
OK, I'll stop now...
I am glad someone was paying attention. I think periods of stasis are also attributable to climate change, so don't get too wrapped up in the verbiage.
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
When we lived in California in the 1980's, and we were in a long drought situation, our town put water use restrictions on us (mainly for sprinkler heavy use) that were 250 gallons per day per person in the household. I can't imagine what 55 GPD would be like since even a quick shower can use 20+ gallons and much more if you have teenage daughters (we did).
Maybe it's time for you to drill a well if a potable aquifer is under your property?
timo2
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Regarding the CAP in AZ, there could be cuts to that. "We've entered Tier Zero, when the elevation of the reservoir Lake Mead drops below 1,090 feet above sea level.
Lake Mead actually ended 2019 with its water above 1,090 feet above sea level, but the reservoir nonetheless entered Tier 0 because that designation depends on the projections of a 24-month study published in August, which predicted that at the end of 2019, Lake Mead would fall below 1,090 feet.
Under the Drought Contingency Plan, a seven-state plan spelling out tiers of cutbacks to each state depending on the capacity of Colorado River reservoirs, Arizona must leave 192,000 acre feet in Lake Mead this year."
https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/new...st-farmers-groundwater-cap-mead-2020-11423832
Lake Mead actually ended 2019 with its water above 1,090 feet above sea level, but the reservoir nonetheless entered Tier 0 because that designation depends on the projections of a 24-month study published in August, which predicted that at the end of 2019, Lake Mead would fall below 1,090 feet.
Under the Drought Contingency Plan, a seven-state plan spelling out tiers of cutbacks to each state depending on the capacity of Colorado River reservoirs, Arizona must leave 192,000 acre feet in Lake Mead this year."
https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/new...st-farmers-groundwater-cap-mead-2020-11423832
Yes, for anyone who remembers what Lake Powell and Lake Mead looked like in the 1980s vs. today, the difference is stark. Lake Powell is at 47% of "full" and Lake Mead at 43%. Meanwhile, the population in states using that water continues to grow, and annual snow pack and rainfall levels are increasingly insufficient to raise the water level. More people sharing less water will inevitably lead to rationing.
I will say that my former city Tucson (we still winter there) has been a leader in water management. The per capital daily consumption in Tucson is now at 76 gallons. This beats the most efficient state, New Mexico, by a couple of gallons.
https://mapazdashboard.arizona.edu/infrastructure/residential-water-use
I will say that my former city Tucson (we still winter there) has been a leader in water management. The per capital daily consumption in Tucson is now at 76 gallons. This beats the most efficient state, New Mexico, by a couple of gallons.
https://mapazdashboard.arizona.edu/infrastructure/residential-water-use
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Midpack
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Here's a timely (and very good) NYT article with an interactive chart showing the greatest climate change risk for every county in the US. Pick your poison, though I don't consider the categories equal. Water stress/drought is projected to affect the most people.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...rricane-climate.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...rricane-climate.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab
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