Factoring climate change into location choice

[kevink]

I recently read an article that pointed out that most of the places folks are flocking to during this COVID relocation spike are exactly those locales that are most susceptible to spikes in high temperatures, water shortages, flooding, etc.: Florida, Texas and the Southwest.

This article has a couple of good maps and looks at all of this through an insurance lens:

https://www.policygenius.com/homeowners-insurance/best-and-worst-states-for-climate-change/

while this article does a good job of showing how widespread such concerns are while pointing out that realistically the all-important ties of friendships and community mean that making the best of where one already lives and working on climate change resilience locally will be the first (or only) choice for most of us:

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/12/where-should-i-move-to-be-safe-from-climate-change/

Living in Tucson myself I've certainly experienced some of this first hand.

 

[Montecfo]

I think what that reveals is people do not give it a lot of weight. Climate? Yes.

Climate change? no

And looming water shortages i
in Arizona are certainly not new.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Sort of! We considered all the usual suspects, but came to realize that our present location is well-positioned in the face of climate change. It is comforting to live within the Great Lakes basin for water usage, for example. We have decided to stay here and snowbird for a while.

 

[Car-Guy]

I think what that reveals is people do not give it a lot of weight. Climate? Yes.

Climate change? no

+1


The "climate" in my part Texas this year has been a little unusual, from my POV... Of course we had the super cold (zero) temps earlier this year which set records. But I don't think we've hit 100f this "summer".... First year in recent memory that hasn't happened. Overall I'd estimate (feels like anyway) that we are 3 to 5 degrees cooler on the avg summer day than in the past several years. Also more rain than usual which has probably helped keep the temps down a bit... No drought this year around here.

 

[Music Lover]

+1


The "climate" in my part Texas this year has been a little unusual, from my POV... Of course we had the super cold (zero) temps earlier this year which set records. But I don't think we've hit 100f this "summer".... First year in recent memory that hasn't happened. Overall I'd estimate (feels like anyway) that we are 3 to 5 degrees cooler on the avg summer day than in the past several years. Also more rain than usual which has probably helped keep the temps down a bit... No drought this year around here.

Scientists have said we're in the early stages of a grand solar minimum (low sunspot activity) that may coincide with cooler global temps.

For us, we'd choose a place to live based on how it is now, not on projected computer simulations that may or may not happen.

 

[OldShooter]

We will never move, but if we were to up sticks there would be a number of disaster-related criteria for selecting a destination. Risks ike hurricanes, wildfire, floods, drought/aka water shortages, summer heat, and earthquakes would be considered. Whether you choose to hang a climate change tag on them or not, I think the fact that weather-related risks seem to be increasing should be a consideration.

Yes, that pretty much rules out the [mod edit] west coast, Arizona, Florida, and coastal areas of east coast and gulf states. Probably other areas that don't come to mind right now.

 

[Car-Guy]

Scientists have said we're in the early stages of a grand solar minimum (low sunspot activity) that may coincide with cooler global temps.

No comment!

For us, we'd choose a place to live based on how it is now, not on projected computer simulations that may or may not happen.

Agree with that....

 

[meierlde]

The main issue is seal level rise ti be concerned with. i.e don't move to places lower than 50 foot above sea level. then there is the issue of flood plains. For water if need be vigorous conservation campaigns can be undertaken such as forbidding lawn irrigation etc. to reduce water use etc. If in a hot place the chances are that solar on the roof will reduce costs combined with mini split hvac systems.

 

[stepford]

The main issue is seal level rise ti be concerned with. i.e don't move to places lower than 50 foot above sea level...

50 foot? That's a pretty healthy sea level rise there. Granted one needs some buffer to account for tides and storm surge, but even under the grimmest scenarios I've seen 25-30 ft ASL should be enough to keep homes out of the water for the remainder of our lifetimes.

I will say, though, that potential sea level rise is making me question my desire for a home in a beachfront neighborhood I've been looking at with an elevation of 22 ft.

 

[yhoomajor]

Weather has been very nice here in Arizona so far this year. about 8-10 degrees cooler than average temps for this time of year.

And we have been storing surplus water in our Aquifers for decades now for times when normal runoffs are low. But you won't hear that in the national news

 

[tmm99]

I see wildfires as the biggest problem right now. I've always looked at flood as a problem as well.

 

[LRDave]

Weather has been very nice here in Arizona so far this year. 10-15 degrees cooler than average temps for this time of year.

The OP's question was about climate. You are talking about weather. But you probably know that.

 

[yhoomajor]

The OP's question was about climate. You are talking about weather. But you probably know that.

Not sure which OP you are referring to. Here is the direct quote from OP:

"I recently read an article that pointed out that most of the places folks are flocking to during this COVID relocation spike are exactly those locales that are most susceptible to spikes in high temperatures, water shortages, flooding, etc.: Florida, Texas and the Southwest."

And no.. there is no sky falling here in southwest. Contrary to what these fear-mongering articles pertain to.

 

[yhoomajor]

Also.. Climate has always been changing, every single year for Billions of year. Climate has never been same from one year to next.

Cliches like "Climate is different from weather" is meant to silence the arguments on other side. If I remember, kids were not suppose to see any snow by year 2016, from what I remember these climate alarmists were talking about in early 2000s. Yet they get to claim that they are always right. And those who question the scare-mongering, don't know that Climate is different from weather.

 

[meierlde]

50 foot? That's a pretty healthy sea level rise there. Granted one needs some buffer to account for tides and storm surge, but even under the grimmest scenarios I've seen 25-30 ft ASL should be enough to keep homes out of the water for the remainder of our lifetimes.

I will say, though, that potential sea level rise is making me question my desire for a home in a beachfront neighborhood I've been looking at with an elevation of 22 ft.

Ok figure 15 foor for sea level riase, and then 22 for a storm surge and you get 37 feet or so. Of course on the west coast 50 foot gets you out of tsumani range also.

 

[stepford]

Ok figure 15 foor for sea level riase, and then 22 for a storm surge and you get 37 feet or so. Of course on the west coast 50 foot gets you out of tsumani range also.

A 22 foot storm surge may be realistic (and scary) on the Gulf Coast, but the largest storm surges I've been able to find on the Pacific Coast are much smaller - on the order of 1 meter - and even less as you go further South into California where I am considering buying another home. While no one knows how much this may change over the next 40 years (a very optimistic estimate of my life expectancy) I suspect that a 22 foot buffer for storm surge is overkill.

Still, we are arguing details not basic facts. There will very likely be more flooding on the Pacific Coast and some increased home elevation is desirable as a result. I'd like to think that number is closer to 25 feet than 50, but none of us are doing much more than guessing at this point.

 

[ls99]

My choice of moving out of Baltimore area was based on: low likelihood of tornadoes, altitude higher than 500' and several mountain ranges away from the Washimore corridor. Ended up in the Laurel Highlands of western PA.

 

[OldShooter]

FWIW storm surge is the least of the worries. I deployed with Red Cross on Hurricane Michael and the damage was amazing. 50YO trees uprooted and thrown, structures leveled. Many roads impassible. Long power outages. Not what I would risk in selecting a move location.

My other data point is a brand new 1M++ house a friend build in Napa Valley. He had spent a total of 3 days in the house, his wife two, and the last round of fires burned it to the ground. To my amazement he is building again on the same spot, but the house will be concrete. Still vulnerable via windows, though. I think he's crazy. Again, not someplace I would choose to move.

 

[rodi]

Thanks for the interesting discussion.

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