Vermont to become a destination for FIRE?

[Sarah in SC]

But if you drink enough Long Trail and enough Otter Creek then it can get confusing, so let's give Sarah a pass.

Damn, can't sneak anything past you guys! I actually typed that post out like three times on my phone and kept dropping the app, so by the time I actually sent it, details were lost. But lord yes, you two, I stand corrected. But they are both good beers!

And yes, I did have some of the Ice Wine, it was delicious! And very sweet. I brought back a bottle of that as well!

 

[pb4uski]

I live in Vermont and have been following the single payer proposal closely. I think the reality is that the Governor and legislature will not be able to figure out a sensible way of paying for single payer without ruining the economy and will ultimately either give up on single payer or revise it dramatically.

One likely thing they will consider is a tax on employers, but employers who currently provide health insurance coverage would also be relieved of the cost of providing health insurance coverage. I don't see it as workable and many others who have studied it are skeptical. ....

An update to the thread earlier this year on Vermont's initiative on single payer. As I predicted, it collapsed from its own weight. The governor announced today that he concluded that it was not economically viable and is abandoning the effort.

While I think that is the right conclusion, it was as obvious as the nose on his face (that is to say, painfully obvious) from the beginning, so I wonder how much taxpayer money was wasted in coming to that obvious conclusion.

Shumlin: It's 'Not The Right Time' For Single Payer | Vermont Public Radio

 

[friar1610]

Did he ever come right out and say how much it would cost and how it would be paid for? I recall when I lived there that nobody could get him to provide those basic facts.

I assume the Democrat-dominated House is going to vote him back in in January? Does Milne even have a prayer? (Haven't been keeping up since the election in Nov.)

 

[HFWR]

Some of us include fermented and brewed beverages as "meds", and that means they qualify as part of the cost of health care discussion.

Now if I could just get my HI to cover my liquor bill...

 

[pb4uski]

Did he ever come right out and say how much it would cost and how it would be paid for? I recall when I lived there that nobody could get him to provide those basic facts.

I assume the Democrat-dominated House is going to vote him back in in January? Does Milne even have a prayer? (Haven't been keeping up since the election in Nov.)

The total estimated cost of providing benefit was $4.3 billion in 2017, rising to $5.2 billion in 2021. However, that cost would be reduced by federal Medicaid and what the state is currently contributing to Medicaid, resulting in new revenues needed of $2.6 billion in 2017 rising to $3.2 billion in 2021. The $2.6 billion is higher than a $2.2 billion previously rumored.

See http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/vpr/files/201412/costa-health-care-presentation-20141217.pdf

The funding would have been an 11.5% payroll tax generating $1.5 to $1.6 billion annually and new income taxes of 0% to 9.5% with a max of $27,500 generating $1.2 to $1.4 billion annually. The plan would have generated slight surpluses in 2017-2019 and deficits thereafter.

IMO, these taxes would have created a giant sucking sound of businesses and individuals leaving the state. I know I would have moved to another state and just kept my vacation home here.

I think the Democratic legislature will pinch their noses and re-elect him in January since there is historical precedent for over 100 years of the legislature installing the top statewide vote-getter. However, I think a lot of his supporters feel that he has baited and switched them since he was such a proponent of single payer during the recent gubernatorial campaign. His spin is that the information is "new" and he is very disappointed but I suspect that he knew full well that this single payer pig was not going to fly and kept silent until after the election.

Whether this will alienate legislators enough to boot him out and elect Milne remains to be seen, but I doubt it.

 

[2B]

IMO, these taxes would have created a giant sucking sound of businesses leaving the state. I know I would have moved to another state and just kept my vacation home here.

The single payer would eliminate the need for companies to pay for health care for their employees. That would provide an incentive for some companies to stay or move there. For the ones that don't provide much in the way of health care it would be a big tax increase.

 

[harley]

Some of us include fermented and brewed beverages as "meds", and that means they qualify as part of the cost of health care discussion.

Speaking of Dawg52, anybody hear from him recently?

 

[REWahoo]

Speaking of Dawg52, anybody hear from him recently?

Nope.

He hasn't posted since early in January but I see he still lurks on the forum. Maybe he took a vow of silence? Hopefully it was only for a year and he'll soon join us again...

 

[pb4uski]

The single payer would eliminate the need for companies to pay for health care for their employees. That would provide an incentive for some companies to stay or move there. For the ones that don't provide much in the way of health care it would be a big tax increase.

WADR, you are dreaming. I understand that argument, but I just do not agree.

The half of employers who don't currently offer health insurance likely would have bolted rather than absorb an additional 11.5% in payroll costs and that alone would be a huge problem. And as I understand it larger firms might have had to pay the 11.5% in addition to their current health insurance plans or somehow carve their Vermont employees out of their current plans. it would have been a mess.

I'm sure that my increase in taxes would have been much more than my savings on health insurance.

 

[2B]

WADR, you are dreaming. I understand that argument, but I just do not agree.

.

WADR -- What A Dumb Response?

Single payer is the "progressive" dream so I'm afraid almost anything I say will be interpretted politically which is not the intent. I agree that most people currently taking care of their own health insurance will lose money out of the deal. Those that don't will get better care but probably pay little if any additional tax. Companies would only come out ahead if they have low paid employees but provide a high cost health care plan. That's not too likely.

 

[pb4uski]

WADR = with all due respect.

Your interpretation is creative but not my message to you.

 

[haha]

Speaking of Dawg52, anybody hear from him recently?

I did maybe a month ago. He is happy, doing well and loving his doggie and retirement.

Ha

 

[friar1610]

There was a discussion a while back about the single payer health care plan that Gov. Peter Shumlin of Vermont had been proposing. I lived in Vermont until about a year and a half ago and followed this issue somewhat, although I would not have had a need to join the plan if I had remained there. Nobody was able to pin down Shumlin (or any of the other advocates of the plan) about how much it would cost.

There was an article in today's Boston Globe saying that the plan has been abandoned because it would cost too much (and, consequently, raise income taxes and payroll taxes too much.) Vermont is already one of the most heavily taxed states in the country.

Costs derail Vermont’s single-payer health plan - Business - The Boston Globe

This post is not intended to be a political rant but simply an update on the issue.