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Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
05-27-2005, 11:24 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
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Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
Just a thought and I guess it largely depends on how old you are where you stand in terms of retired or not retired. Shouldn't we hope for a nice drop in the markets? As for me I do b/c it means I have a chance to pick up equities at low prices. Seems to me it would speed up my chances for early retirement if I had the opportunity to buy cheap like I am sure many of you all had back in the 70's, 80's and early 90's. Are my ER chances pretty much a product of my investment accumulation environment? I think so to some degree but the floor is now open for debate.
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
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05-27-2005, 11:31 AM
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#2
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
Well, you're right if you are buying stocks. Instead of Selling.
A younger person on this forum was lamenting seeing his 401K drop this year. It's actually what he should want to happen. For the reasons you stated.
Bear while working, Bull when retired.
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
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05-27-2005, 11:51 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
By far, the biggest driver of time to ER is how much you save and how little you need to live on. Investment returns matter, but not neary as much as LBYM and socking lots away. I'd be happy to see a market decline, but I don't need it to get to ER. In any case, I am a stock picker, so I don't need a general market decline to buy stuff on the cheap.
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Ezekiel 23:20
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
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05-27-2005, 12:04 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
Not for me. I blew a lot of money. The 94-99 run up made me my money, and getting the hell out in 00 let me keep it.
Lucky twice.
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
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05-27-2005, 12:12 PM
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#5
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 557
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
If you are DCAing over the accumulation phase, and can stick with the plan, yes, a bear market will allow you to buy low. Key is to be able to continue investing while the balance in your accout drops. Easy to say, hard to do, very hard to do when there is a significant drop and the bad news that goes along with.
Need to have a written plan, and stick with it!
Uncledrz
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
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05-27-2005, 12:55 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Location: Lou-evil
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
 Quote:
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the biggest driver of time to ER is how much you save and how little you need to live on
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True, but I would just like to see all the money I sock away enjoy nice returns. But only variables I can control is what you mentioned.
__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
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05-27-2005, 02:38 PM
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#7
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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Re: Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop?
My ER plan does require returns during accumulation, otherwise I'm trapped in the cube farm several more years. 
I'll have saved about 1.1 mil by 45, but I need some interest on those returns, as I'd like to have 1.6 to 2 by then to safely retire! Maybe I'm too optimistic.
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