With this Market, most likely moving FIRE from 2020 to 2022

[cyber888]

Was hoping to retire at the beginning of 2020. But I'm now aiming for 2022.

With the tariffs and trade war affecting supply chain and the Feds continuing to raise interest rates, the market's looks pretty spooked. Still hoping decision makers will change their policy soon.

Firecalc says I'm 97%-99% ok for 2020, but still don't feel comfy.

Anyone else changing their target dates?

 

[joeea]

Nope.

Maybe I'm just not good at mood detection, but I don't see how a bad day or two tells me that the market is "spooked".

And if I were that dependent on an "unspooked" market, I wouldn't be planning retirement anyway. My plans are unchanged.

 

[flintnational]

Firecalc says I'm 97%-99% ok for 2020, but still don't feel comfy.

IMO, the above statement might be a valid reason to reevaluate your FIRE date. OTOH, tariffs and short term market moves are just noise and there will always be noise. I do not think either add any real value to the FIRE decision.

 

[Dtail]

It's the old argument of what % does one need?
What happens if you are at 100% with Firecalc, but less than 100% with other calculators?
In my case I retired in 2017, but could not find work and just would have gone to Plan B of a LCOL area/living abroad.

 

[COcheesehead]

Class of 2020 for me. I've been building a fortress around me for the last year. I am not basing my retirement go/no go on the markets. Too important to be dependent on something you can't control.

 

[Red Badger]

Psst, hey markets... Boo!!!!

Aw crap, they're already closed and I wanted to spook them.

But seriously, if a volatile market is a concern, you probably should consider hiring an FA, or strap in - its always gonna be a bumpy ride.

 

[corn18]

I am planning to retire in 2021, but if some things go well, I would love to push that up to 2019. A 40% drop in the market would mean 2021, though.

 

[Carpediem]

My first potential retirement date is June 2019 (at age 60) but I agree with the OP - I will re-evaluate if the markets continue to be so schizophrenic. Dealing with COBRA and/or ACA is challenging enough. Not interested in dealing with wild market swings at the same time. If I have the benefit of allowing things to 'settle' a bit, I'll do so.

 

[Montecfo]

This why bond and cash allocation are so important. Take comfort on the fact that you do not NEED to sell equities for x years.

And did your notice, the market is not down that much overall. Having the right mental game is important.

 

[NW-Bound]

Was hoping to retire at the beginning of 2020. But I'm now aiming for 2022...

Uh Oh! Not OMY, but TMY?

I dunno. I am eligible for SS but have not thought about taking it prior to 70.

 

[COcheesehead]

This why bond and cash allocation are so important. Take comfort on the fact that you do not NEED to sell equities for x years.

And did your notice, the market is not down that much overall. Having the right mental game is important.

+1

 

[Bir48die]

IMO, the above statement might be a valid reason to reevaluate your FIRE date. OTOH, tariffs and short term market moves are just noise and there will always be noise. I do not think either add any real value to the FIRE decision.

Agree here. Maybe I was distracted so not sure how old you are. That would also have a bearing for me.

 

[Ready]

The best time you can possibly retire is at the beginning of a down market, so this may be perfect timing for you.

 

[Bir48die]

The best time you can possibly retire is at the beginning of a down market, so this may be perfect timing for you.

Please educate me on why that would be the case

 

[Ready]

Please educate me on why that would be the case

Because you establish your initial withdrawal rate based on the reduced portfolio value. If the value then rises in the early years, you will have the opportunity to increase your withdrawals to take advantage of the gains.

Conversely, if you retire at an all time high and based your withdrawal rate on the portfolio value at its peak, you then have to deal with sequence of returns risk and the possibility of having to cut back on your withdrawals to reduce your risk of an early portfolio depletion.

Search for threads on sequence of returns risk for a more detailed analysis.

 

[MarieIG]

Nope, tariffs will be old news by 2020. There will be something else to worry about. But there will always be something to worry about.

 

[Talkjk]

Sticking with 2020. I have a five year CD ladder to get me through if needed.

 

[GR111]

No change to the plan here. There’s always stock market noise. Keeping asset allocations and time line- 3 months till fire! Will let y’all know how it goes.

 

[street]

I retired in early months of 2016. Things were iffy, market going side ways and was coming off of returns at the last month's of 2015. I planned for what the times presented and retired if though it wasn't a very good time market wise.


Now looking back it was a great time because markets rose over 8000 points in those few short years.

 

[audreyh1]

Because you establish your initial withdrawal rate based on the reduced portfolio value. If the value then rises in the early years, you will have the opportunity to increase your withdrawals to take advantage of the gains.

Conversely, if you retire at an all time high and based your withdrawal rate on the portfolio value at its peak, you then have to deal with sequence of returns risk and the possibility of having to cut back on your withdrawals to reduce your risk of an early portfolio depletion.

Search for threads on sequence of returns risk for a more detailed analysis.

I think you mean at the end of a bear market when it stops going down. Bear markets are measured peak to trough.

 

[JackJester]

Options are July 2019 or July 2020 for me. Still on track for 2019, but hoping for that 10-20% correction now. In 2019 my megacorp will contribute 9% of my pay to my 401K per paycheck, in addition to my current employer match. In 2020 it will be an 8% contribution. This was there way of appeasing us as they phase out the pension. Either way, light is at the end of the tunnel .. toot toot.

 

[youbet]

Was hoping to retire at the beginning of 2020. But I'm now aiming for 2022.

With the tariffs and trade war affecting supply chain and the Feds continuing to raise interest rates, the market's looks pretty spooked. Still hoping decision makers will change their policy soon.

Firecalc says I'm 97%-99% ok for 2020, but still don't feel comfy

Most posters here heavily pad their FireCalc inputs. (Understate assets and retirement income while exaggerating spending.). You? Perhaps you’re being excessively conservative?

Are you getting excellent value from how you’re spending your most scarce and precious possession, your limited lifetime, while you’re working?

 

[cooch96]

This is the best time in a generation to be looking for a job. Is there something that you might enjoy doing part time? A transition to semi-FIRE might assuage your fears and give you more free time.

 

[YVRRocketSurgery]

Target 2022 and 99% sure I'm not going to change the dates.

Everyone's got their own comfort level wrt how bulletproof they feel their portfolio needs to be. Personally, I'm already working a few years longer to 2022 to build a large enough nest egg to meet my extended retirement goals (which includes some extensive travel). It has the added effect of allowing me to revert to my base retirement goals (which still has some travel) if the markets do not cooperate.

 

[njhowie]

If a 5% or 10% market move is going to throw your plans off when you're so close, then there's a problem.

1. You do not have sufficient buffer built in to your estimates
2. You have too high of an equity allocation

Think to yourself - what if instead, this correction came in the month when you did just retire? What then?

What if the market goes down another 5% or 10% from here - will that push you out further?

Don't take it personally - I think there is a very large swath of folks in the same boat as you...with very high and aggressive equity allocations.

Lastly, for all those who do not believe in sequence of returns risk - this is a prime example.