Results when changing SS start date or Pension start date

[Clone]

I wanted to re-run the projections from a year or two ago with a saved model. The numbers were lower than I remembered, so I did some investigating.

I had found that there is sensitivity as to what date you use for when social security or a pension starts. In this situation, I had start dates of 2019 for DW's SS, my pension, and for a contract payment that stretches out for many years. By modifying the 'starting in' date from 2019 to 2020, the results get better. I have attached a grid showing how much better. My pension started 7 years ago, and it makes no difference if I put starts in 2013 or starts in 2019. But the results are better when it starts in 2020.

Does anybody have any insight?

Edit to add: OK, I see there is a statement that 'Back dated entries will not be factored in. So it looks like you must use the current year for starting in dates, thus when the calender year rolls over you need to update those dates?

 

[Animorph]

I think it is assuming income that started before the current date has already been entered in the main income number. So any 2019 starts were simply ignored, for 2019 and all future years.

 

[Markola]

The calculators I use, Personal Capital and Vanguard’s don’t care what happened in the past. Sounds like it’s the same with FireCalc. It’s all about what you have now and attempting to look forward.

 

[Clone]

The calculators I use, Personal Capital and Vanguard’s don’t care what happened in the past. Sounds like it’s the same with FireCalc. It’s all about what you have now and attempting to look forward.

What I am seeing is that there is considerable difference in the results, and they should either be neutral or negative. It could be that is completely ignoring the contribution of those revenue streams that have already started, or there is some wierd SOR calculation.

As written, it appears to me that their are serious errors if you have already started a pension, if you have already started SS, or if you have a preexisting revenue stream.

Edit: Yup, I just did some testing. If you enter a revenue stream that has already started, it completely ignores it. Using a spend of 50K with an initial portfolio of 100K, you can enter an inflation adjusted pension of 50K. Start in 2019 and you have 100% failure. Start in 2020 and you have 100% success.

In my case, I had reloaded a run that I made a year ago, and everything started failing. It was because the existing contract revenue stream had a start date of 2019, DW's SS had a start date of 2019, and my pension had a start date of 2019.

 

[Rianne]

Since we have not started SS yet, my first go to calculator: https://opensocialsecurity.com/
We will start pension in 2023. Still deciding monthly lifetime benefits, 50% or 75% for surviving spouse.
DH has home consulting income which he plans to stop in 2022.
Firecalc allows me to adjust each category. DH income tab (not retired yet) stays constant. I'll adjust the SS. Still deciding if we want the benefits now or later. It really doesn't make a whole lot of difference other than the surviving spouse benefit.


The big question is where will our portfolio be when we start WD, which could be in 2 years or 5 years. If we lower our spending we can stretch that time frame to a later date. It looks as though that's happening as we speak. Unless an unexpected expense appears. Our cash backup, which I don't consider part of our portfolio, will hold us over with SS and pension.

 

[USGrant1962]

This is a quirk of FIRECalc - as the instructions say: Only enter changes for future years.

Don't enter past dates. Just don't.