anybody going to play twitter IPO

[MRG]

I never had played an IPO(except Megacorp). So I did apply for a block of twitter shares, no idea if I'll even get in. Anybody else trying to get in?

MRG

 

[kcowan]

I will wait for the market to decide the price. At $15, I was confident in upside. At $23, it is looking like Facebook. The days of dotcom speculations are back!

 

[Animorph]

The Twitter IPO is looking a lot like the Facebook IPO. I'll sit this one out.

 

[sheehs1]

Sitting out....but watching it.

 

[Rosie]

Might be of interest (from Mashable)

Can You Get Rich by Investing $1,000 During an Internet IPO?

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

I never had played an IPO(except Megacorp). So I did apply for a block of twitter shares, no idea if I'll even get in. Anybody else trying to get in?

MRG

Are you nuts?

 

[ziggy29]

I only participated in a dot-com IPO once, at the peak of the bubble in 1999. Turned $1900 into $6100 in a matter of a few minutes. It was pure "mad money" so I was willing to take the chance, though in the mania at the time it seemed pretty close to a (very) short-term "sure thing".

 

[frayne]

I'll stick with my boring index funds.

 

[gcgang]

Who are the underwriters? Usually, they reserve supposedly hot deals for clients who either do lots of IPOs or are really big revenue generators. I doubt that describes anyone on this board.

 

[MRG]

I got a notice from Fidelity, think it's being underwritten by G.S. So I know that I may get zero shares. Won't know the final price till after 6PM. Then I have to re confirm interest.

MRG

 

[Dimsumkid]

They bumped up the price range from $17-20 to $23-25 and then gets priced at $26.

 

[MRG]

Yep, probably won't get a share. But what the heck.

MRG

 

[clifp]

Forget buying the stock that is too boring. I am going to buy a $1 million dollars worth of twitter call options or maybe puts or both. That is the ticket to getting rich

 

[MooreBonds]

Are you nuts?

#+1
#wouldratherdrive50mphinfogontheinterstate

The current valuation is something like $14Billion, and a user base of roughly 225 million.

So that means each user is 'worth' $75 or so. How will they commercialize it enough to have any net earnings anywhere near $75/user?

And that's earnings - not revenue! Granted, they should have high net margins from a low cost structure....but advertisers paying THAT much for it?

At least with Facebook, with a user base of, what, 1 Billion people and 250 million active users, at least they're "only" valued at maybe twice that for each user - but at least there is ad revenue coming in. Twitter - I just don't see being able to convert that user base to enough revenue from ads or anything else.

 

[clifp]

I don't have much of an opinion on twitter, other than to point out that while their are plenty of story stocks which are miserable failures (Zynga). Some are monster success. When Amazon public, I remember figuring out that even if they got 1/3 of all the book sales in the country (they were only a few percent at the time) there was no way you could justify the price. ( Amazon went public at $18/share ($1.50 after stock splits) didn't do great its first couple of months, but at 356 today it is up almost 240 times. I even shorted Amazon in at times in 1999.

I've had a twitter account for 5 years but only really being using in the last couple of year, and I have seen ads on it. Like all social media it has good and bad features.

 

[foxfirev5]

I don't buy individual stocks, IPO or otherwise. However my wife might go to the casino, which still puts me in a risky position today

 

[MRG]

My allocation a big zero, maybe that's a good thing.

MRG

 

[ERhoosier]

I will wait for the market to decide the price. At $15, I was confident in upside. At $23, it is looking like Facebook. The days of dotcom speculations are back!

^^^
Looking more like $44-45 open this AM.

 

[NW-Bound]

...When Amazon public, I remember figuring out that even if they got 1/3 of all the book sales in the country (they were only a few percent at the time) there was no way you could justify the price...

I never traded Amazon, but same as you, thought it was overpriced. About book sales, we both did not have the imagination to think it could be selling more than books later. Of course, so many e-commerce companies crashed and burned.

I still do not know what to expect, so buy no IPOs nor companies that do not yet make money. Well, I do occasionally buy companies that lose money but only companies with a long history, in the hope that they will turn around.

 

[younginvestor2013]

Anybody thinking about shorting it now that it's already up about 92%??

 

[ERhoosier]

Anybody thinking about shorting it now that it's already up about 92%??

Afraid I don't have the (ahem) testosterone levels for that. The market can stay irrational for much longer than I can stay solvent

 

[MRG]

Anybody thinking about shorting it now that it's already up about 92%??

Not sure that can be done yet. Sure am glad I got that zero allocation though. That makes playing it very simple, not going near it now!

If I'd have received an allocation I'd probably would sell 1/2 here. That would mean I violated Fidelity's no flipping rule (15 day hold). Didn't dig into what the penalty for flipping is.

MRG

 

[Animorph]

Not sure that can be done yet. Sure am glad I got that zero allocation though. That makes playing it very simple, not going near it now!

If I'd have received an allocation I'd probably would sell 1/2 here. That would mean I violated Fidelity's no flipping rule (15 day hold). Didn't dig into what the penalty for flipping is.

MRG

I think you're excluded for a while, then banned if you do it again.

 

[clifp]

I never traded Amazon, but same as you, thought it was overpriced. About book sales, we both did not have the imagination to think it could be selling more than books later. Of course, so many e-commerce companies crashed and burned.

I still do not know what to expect, so buy no IPOs nor companies that do not yet make money. Well, I do occasionally buy companies that lose money but only companies with a long history, in the hope that they will turn around.

One of the things I learned this century is the same skills that make me an above average value investor, are of no use in trying to pick winning growth stocks. Even in the late 90s when I was heavily involved in the internet and had access to lots of info the average investor didn't, I still couldn't pick winners better than average and possibly even worse.

I knew Tesla was going to be an awesome car before the general public, and ordered one before the price hike and glowing reviews. But I thought Tesla stock was richly priced at $30 so I didn't really consider buying it.

I did make some money in 99 flipping internet IPOs,but that is like shooting fish in barrel with a shotgun, no skill required.

I'll own some Twitter stock as soon as the folks at Vanguard Total Stock Market buy it.

 

[rodi]

A couple of coworkers bought small blocks (one bought 40 shares, one bought 50 shares). Both are underwater at the end of the day.