Anyone buying into the Rivian IPO?

[Lsbcal]

But, but, but as we talked about just now, making money is never a prerequisite to going IPO and selling shares. All you need is a good narrative, and SpaceX already has plenty of stories to tell.

I have not bought any of these EV stocks, and in fact never bought any IPO ever, in any sector. It's amazing how I survive without owning any of them.

Same here. Also I have not been investing in individual stocks and yet have done well enough to set our standard of living to our satisfaction. I seem to collect many "I could have..." thoughts.

 

[FIREarly]

As much as i'm all for this, SpaceX is not a money making business. So what would the IPO be based on?

That might be the same way media said that Amazon was crazy and losing money for X # of years before the plan positively exploded.

I'm not waiting for the SpaceX IPO. It's a fun story. TSLA is doing very well for me and believe there is a lot of room for growth, +/-97% of the car market. It's such a massive market that multiple EV makers will do well in it and believe Tesla is the far frontrunner.

Maybe Neurolink will somehow make Tesla FSD even better (FSD is supposedto work on its own)... hahaha just typing now

Really like this 5 minute EV charger Ford is working with Purdue on. It'll open another door to sell to people with "range anxiety."

 

[NW-Bound]

... I seem to collect many "I could have..." thoughts.

No, not here. There are more IPOs that went bankrupt than the ones that succeeded.

Talk about kicking myself, here's something. Home Depot released wonderful earning report, stock jumped 5.7% to $392/share.

I had HD but sold covered calls on the shares, and missed out on buying them back. Looked at my record, and saw that I sold them at $280/share in March this year.

200 shares, one lot each in my and my wife's accounts. That's 40% gain in 8 months. $22.4K of gain for the two lots. Darn!

My wife said, but you made gains with other stocks you bought with that money, so don't feel bad. But, but, but I did not make 40% gain with "the other stocks".

Why didn't I buy back the stock? It's because I set my put strike price too low. I did not think people would keep pouring money into upgrading their home. With Covid vaccination, they would go out and travel more. Wrong!

See, I kick myself for not being able to foresee things like that. A lot more mundane things than looking to see which to believe of these "pie-in-the-sky" promises by the IPOs.

 

[aja8888]

No, not here. There are more IPOs that went bankrupt than the ones that succeeded.

Talk about kicking myself, here's something. Home Depot released wonderful earning report, stock jumped 5.7% to $392/share.

I had HD but sold covered calls on the shares, and missed out on buying them back. Looked at my record, and saw that I sold them at $280/share in March this year.

200 shares, one lot each in my and my wife's accounts. That's 40% gain in 8 months. $22.4K of gain for the two lots. Darn!

My wife said, but you made gains with other stocks you bought with that money, so don't feel bad. But, but, but I did not make 40% gain with "the other stocks".

Why didn't I buy back the stock? It's because I set my put strike price too low. I did not think people would keep pouring money into upgrading their home. With Covid vaccination, they would go out and travel more. Wrong!

See, I kick myself for not being able to foresee things like that. A lot more mundane things than looking to see which to believe of these "pie-in-the-sky" promises by the IPOs.

HD was one of my doubles...From $26 to just over $50. Then I never bought anymore of it.

I too, have not bought any of the HYPE stocks. I'm always waiting for the crash.

 

[NW-Bound]

I too, have not bought any of the HYPE stocks. I'm always waiting for the crash.

What do you mean? You are supposed to buy these stocks as they are being hyped, and to sell before the crash. Once they crash and burn, there's nothing left to buy nor sell.

Anyway, speaking of HD, I remember Lowe's which I don't have any more. Just looked at my record and kicked myself again.

Sold LOW in 6/2020 at $127.115. It's not an even price, so was a deliberate sell due to bad earnings or something, and not due to call options getting assigned.

LOW is now $244.78. ARGHHHH! I don't have time to miss these no-earning no-sales phony IPOs. I am missing out on these good money-making companies.

Every bozo is building EVs. I don't see any guy starting up a chain to compete with HD and Lowe's. There used to be a 3rd guy, called HomeBase, but it went defunct in 2002.

 

[Faraday]

Congrats!

Curious if anyone is buying into the Rivian (RIVN) IPO today.

I have a nephew that works in Engineering there who's pretty excited about the IPO and things in general..no inside info, though (and wouldn't share if I did).

Seeing pre-open that it's already expected to open at $125+ even though offer price was initially $78/share.

At $78/share, that'd be a $66B market cap - compared to Ford at around $79B and GM at $85B. All that with Q3 revenues projected at ~$1M with a $1B+ net loss.

Seems like RIVN will be one of those stocks that gets totally unmoored from underlying fundamentals and instead is a purely speculative buy - just like Tesla, Amazon, etc.

I'm sitting this out based on "foofy" valuations but will probably regret it..

No regrets,lol,,
Congratulations to your Nephew, smart future ahead!

I bet GM goes bankrupt.
I bet another UAW boss will be caught on corruption charges.

A deep drive , haha, Dive in Rivian and a deep dive in Lucid I came away with Lucid being the best bet, brilliant CTO, former chief Engineer on Tesla Mdl S, brilliant CFO, Lucid Air, longest EPA range, 520mi. I think the EV space is all about efficiency. Both companies will do well into the future. ditto the valuation. I bought Lucid two weeks ago,add some more Tesla and keeping a eye on Rivian.

EV's are not just about a battery and motor,,, oh no, not even close.

 

[ERhoosier]

Pure EV stocks are risky. While some companies in the space will likely do well, there is a HUGE jump between IPO and stable profitable vehicle production. No one seems to remember the original Fisker Automotive. They actually produced a couple thousand cars and had over a US$Billion in capital, inc. at peak over $500 million in US loan guarantees. They went bankrupt in 6 years.

The notion that multiple start-up EV makers have market capitalizations higher than Ford (an experienced vehicle maker which is actually producing EVs and developing new tech like ultrafast charging) strikes me as evidence of a frothy equity market.

And nifty past market returns are NOT any assurance of future results. Investing in Japan was THE hot investment in the mid-late '80's as the Nikkei index skyrocketed over 400%. By 1989 Japan was poised to become the World's largest equity market and everyone HAD to be invested in it. Then it crashed and 30+ years later has still not fully recovered.

Never bet your future on one roll of the dice........or the next overhyped fad investment.

 

[newchapter]

I had some money to play with and bought 10 shares of RIVN on 11/11 knowing it was a big risk. At close today I am up 24%, I hope the luck continues a little longer...

My stop-sell kicked in when the price went south today. Made ~$300. But when people like me start doing foolish things like this, IMHO I think the market will be correcting sooner than later. In the meantime I am going to make sure my seatbelts are still working correctly.

 

[FIREarly]

EV's are not just about a battery and motor,,, oh no, not even close.

Data... the new gold!!

 

[NW-Bound]

And nifty past market returns are NOT any assurance of future results. Investing in Japan was THE hot investment in the mid-late '80's as the Nikkei index skyrocketed over 400%. By 1989 Japan was poised to become the World's largest equity market and everyone HAD to be invested in it. Then it crashed and 30+ years later has still not fully recovered...

The Japanese in the 80s had so much money, they bid up not just stocks but also real estate. At the peak in 1987, a square meter (11 sq.ft.) of land in a desirable location was as much as US$220K, which is worth US$540K now after inflation.

According to the Global House Prices blog: “At the peak of the Japanese real estate bubble, the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than the entire state of California”.

The justification for the high price of land was that you could not create more land. Once it's gone, it's gone. Gotta buy now, before it gets more expensive, and you will cry your eyes out.

People can bid up the price of anything with the argument of "limited quantity". Not just land which does have an economic value, but also rare coins, old stamps, baseball cards, comic books, and now just computer bits.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have found a good article on Japan economic bubble in the late 80s. Excerpts follow.

In 1989, Japanese banks supplied 20% of the credit in California. Nomura Securities was said to have enough capital to simply purchase all of the leading Wall Street investment banks... The Japanese Postal Service, in effect an enormous government bank, had assets greater than the 12 largest American banks combined...

The Tokyo Imperial Palace, sitting on 1.15 square km of land in central Tokyo, was estimated to have a value greater than all the land in California, America’s wealthiest and most populous state, with an area of 423,970 square km. Despite Japan occupying the equivalent of only 4% of America’s land area, the Japanese property market was worth approximately 4 times more than the American property market.

... in the late 80s, a single individual membership in Japan’s most expensive golf courses could cost US$3.7 million, more than the value of entire golf courses in other countries... at its peak, the total value of golf club memberships was estimated to be US$200 billion, greater than the total Taiwanese GDP and nearly equal to the South Korean GDP of the time.

... The annual revenue of the Pachinko (pinball) industry in Japan exceeded the South Korean GDP...

... Japanese investors owned 45% of prime real estate in downtown Los Angeles...

For more: https://allegrojapan.com/blogs/ayak...80s-seven-crazy-facts-about-the-bubble-period

So, what's the big deal about a $100B valuation for an EV company that has no revenue?

 

[Faraday]

Data... the new gold!!

Darn Tootin Dobbs!

Tsla captured data as we speak some 22 Billion miles +, all feed to the Dojo Npu powered supercomputer, machine learning , FSD.

Tesla Megapack :197 MWh order for the UK using its AI autobidder program.

Giga press: One piece casting Front ,Rear., battery sandwich,, 1 rolls off the line every 10 hours.

Super charger v.3 up to 1,000 mi. per hour.

Mega Charger v.1 live in NV. anyone know the voltage?,, for Semi Trk.

Spacex/Starlink deployed at Supercharger locations, 25,000 n growing,,

Fremont expansion
Nevada expansion
China, ( delivered 240,000 cars last Qtr.)
Germany 2022
Texas 2021
?

GM? Ford? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

GM 1 in 5 Cadillac dealerships closed

Ford has plenty of pre orders for the Lightning F150, Tesla has more for Cybrtk.
I hope Ford does well,

 

[NW-Bound]

While this thread is about Rivian, mention of Tesla FSD prompted me to scan through YouTube to get these video titles.

Will Camera Calibration Fix My Tesla's Broken FSD Beta? V 10.4

Tesla FSD Beta 10.4 Doesn't Want To Stop For This Red Light

Construction Poses a Risk for Tesla FSD Beta V 10.4

Tesla’s FSD Beta Is Nowhere Near Ready For Public Road Use. We Try It Out Around Our City!

Tesla FSD Beta V10.4 Starts Freaking Out..(Part 1)

Tesla FSD Beta Danger Compilation

FSD 10.4 not yet recognizing stop sign ahead

Tesla FSD Beta 10.2 tries to run into stop sign

FSD Beta Fails To Detect Objects in Road

[FSD Beta 10.4] First Impressions - Not The Best

​

People who are interested can watch more videos like these to see for themselves how close it is to a true robotaxi. I have seen too many, and recently lost interest.

I used to watch a lot of videos from beta testers, because I am interested in the technology, but this is getting boring. Same problems, again and again.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Darn Tootin Dobbs!

Tsla captured data as we speak some 22 Billion miles +, all feed to the Dojo Npu powered supercomputer, machine learning , FSD.

Tesla Megapack :197 MWh order for the UK using its AI autobidder program.

Giga press: One piece casting Front ,Rear., battery sandwich,, 1 rolls off the line every 10 hours.

Super charger v.3 up to 1,000 mi. per hour.

Mega Charger v.1 live in NV. anyone know the voltage?,, for Semi Trk.

Spacex/Starlink deployed at Supercharger locations, 25,000 n growing,,

Fremont expansion
Nevada expansion
China, ( delivered 240,000 cars last Qtr.)
Germany 2022
Texas 2021
?

GM? Ford? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

GM 1 in 5 Cadillac dealerships closed

Ford has plenty of pre orders for the Lightning F150, Tesla has more for Cybrtk.
I hope Ford does well,

Ford has 160K reservations.
Tesla's cybertruck has 1.6M

 

[FIREarly]

Originally Posted by Faraday View Post
Darn Tootin Dobbs!

Tsla captured data as we speak some 22 Billion miles +, all feed to the Dojo Npu powered supercomputer, machine learning , FSD.

Tesla Megapack :197 MWh order for the UK using its AI autobidder program.

Giga press: One piece casting Front ,Rear., battery sandwich,, 1 rolls off the line every 10 hours.

Super charger v.3 up to 1,000 mi. per hour.

Mega Charger v.1 live in NV. anyone know the voltage?,, for Semi Trk.

Spacex/Starlink deployed at Supercharger locations, 25,000 n growing,,

Fremont expansion
Nevada expansion
China, ( delivered 240,000 cars last Qtr.)
Germany 2022
Texas 2021
?

GM? Ford? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

GM 1 in 5 Cadillac dealerships closed

Ford has plenty of pre orders for the Lightning F150, Tesla has more for Cybrtk.
I hope Ford does well,

Ford has 160K reservations.
Tesla's cybertruck has 1.6M

Per the original forum title, how many reservations does Rivian [most popular model] have?

 

[NW-Bound]

I watched "Boiler Room", a 2000 movie, free on YouTube last night when it happened to pop up on the suggested list. I heard of this movie, but had not seen it. I have seen "The Wolf of Wall Street" (2013) with Leonardo DiCaprio, and this "Boiler Room" is about the same theme of scammers promising a get-rich-quick stock purchase to their clients. "The Wolf of Wall Street" is based on a 2007 memoir by Jordan Belfort, which I also read. The movie stayed quite close to the true story.

I don't believe these boiler rooms are in operation anymore. The Internet changes all that. Now, stock pushers are on forums like Reddit, and on Twitter. I don't know if they are organized, but the sales pitch is the same. This is a unique company. You've got to buy now, or will regret it the rest of your life.

 

[Qs Laptop]

I watched "Boiler Room", a 2000 movie, free on YouTube last night when it happened to pop up on the suggested list.

I don't believe these boiler rooms are in operation anymore. The Internet changes all that. Now, stock pushers are on forums like Reddit, and on Twitter. I don't know if they are organized, but the sales pitch is the same. This is a unique company. You've got to buy now, or will regret it the rest of your life.

I presume these "boiler rooms" are about the high pressure telephone stock traders that call you with a hot tip, a sure thing that is going to make you 50%, 75% or more in a couple of months? That was a huge thing in 15-25 years ago. I would get a couple calls a month from these guys. They talk in the typical New York City fast patter, scarcely stopping for a breath.

After a while I worked up a standard answer to them, which was something like this:

"Hang on a sec. I'm looking around my desk here."

<long pause, 5 seconds at least...>

"I don't see any bags of money lying around that needs to be sent to a stranger in New York for investment. I had to move all those money bags away from my desk for safety reasons. You see, when they were lying about my office floor I would often trip on them. Sometimes I would fall down and chip my teeth on the gold bullion bars lying next to them. I had those gold bars moved too. Everything is invested in something sensible now."

The silence on the other end usually lasted about 5 seconds and then the phone was hung up. Other times there could be cussing heard before the phone was hung up.

 

[NW-Bound]

With the proliferation of Internet web sites spreading info, facts as well as fiction, people can find anything on the Web to reinforce what they want to believe in. It can be any subject, stock tips, miracle drugs, political conspiracies, etc...

If someone wants to find a scheme that makes them rich quick, he can find it himself 24/7 by searching the Web. He does not need someone to call him.

However, with the speculator being able to buy the shares himself via online brokers, the scammers are gone, and the beneficiaries from the stock pumping are the existing shareholders and the companies themselves. Hence we are now bombarded with press and new releases promising more and more wonderful things on the Internet. In the old days, not too many people have the time and money to read printed magazines, or watched financial TV channels all day. Now, you just put something out on Twitter, and it will spread like wild fire. Free and fast. Is that not great?

 

[Faraday]

Per the original forum title, how many reservations does Rivian [most popular model] have?

Well those brilliant engineers, employees at Rivian have got 156 of em in hand on the streets, RT1 55,000 pre orders to date, full delv. 2023 is my understanding.

LA car show opens tomorrow!

Whos showing? no not Apple, however, Sondors,Edison future, Vinfast, Fisker, Imperium, Kia,.

 

[aja8888]

If you want something to spread like wildfire, it looks like margin loans did that recently:

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Dang!

My stock AA is currently 62%, and will drop some more when a bunch of covered calls gets assigned tomorrow.

I have been kicking myself for losing a lot of stocks via covered calls. If I did not sell the calls and keep the shares, would have almost $100K more than I do now. Dang!

That's why I have kept a diary since 1999, something for me to look back to remind myself of what I have been through. I still remember selling a few semiconductor shares too early in March 2000, and regretting that I left on the table a lot of money.

Of course I later regretted not selling everything in March 2000.

 

[aja8888]

^^^ Dang!

My stock AA is currently 62%, and will drop some more when a bunch of covered calls gets assigned tomorrow.

I have been kicking myself for losing a lot of stocks via covered calls. If I did not sell the calls and keep the shares, would have almost $100K more than I do now. Dang!

That's why I have kept a diary since 1999, something for me to look back to remind myself of what I have been through. I still remember selling a few semiconductor shares too early in March 2000, and regretting that I left on the table a lot of money.

Of course I later regretted not selling everything in March 2000.

I wonder how much of this Rivian IPO stock was bought on margin? With margin loans "out the Wazoo". like they are now, when the selling panic starts, the unwind will be brutal.