Anyone buying into the Rivian IPO?

[24601NoMore]

Curious if anyone is buying into the Rivian (RIVN) IPO today.

I have a nephew that works in Engineering there who's pretty excited about the IPO and things in general..no inside info, though (and wouldn't share if I did).

Seeing pre-open that it's already expected to open at $125+ even though offer price was initially $78/share.

At $78/share, that'd be a $66B market cap - compared to Ford at around $79B and GM at $85B. All that with Q3 revenues projected at ~$1M with a $1B+ net loss.

Seems like RIVN will be one of those stocks that gets totally unmoored from underlying fundamentals and instead is a purely speculative buy - just like Tesla, Amazon, etc.

I'm sitting this out based on "foofy" valuations but will probably regret it..

 

[finnski1]

No but I will watch it closely

 

[pb4uski]

No interest here. Amazon's PE ratio is ~70 and Tesla's is ~375... I realize that growth is a factor to be considered but just can't get there.


Sometimes I get a little FOMO but I usually get over it quickly.

 

[24601NoMore]

I wouldn't touch RIVN at these valuations, but have several family members with big-time FOMO and next to no investing expertise or knowledge wanting to jump all over it, including two who have NEVER bought a single fund or stock in their lives. Have had to try to tactfully caution them without getting myself into a pickle if this turns out to be the next TSLA.

FWIW, here's a pertinent headline from one of the hottest money managers on the Street this AM..

ARK's Cathie Wood tells him during an on-stage conference interview this morning that she wouldn't buy $RIVN at today's valuation...' -Tweet From CNBC Anchor Scott Wapner

https://twitter.com/x/status/1458473661921382403

 

[karen1972]

I'm watching it more because of Fords 12% stake in it. I think there is certainly going to be some FOMO buying but thats not my type of investment.

 

[jabbahop]

I have a reservation for a Rivian so was able to buy a whopping 10 shares @ pre open price of $78/share. I never buy individual stocks but like the company’s truck and mission so thought what the heck.

 

[mn54]

there was an article in this weeks Barron's about it. the conclusion was it was priced too high.

 

[aja8888]

I will wait until the IPO hype is over and see where it settles (Remember FB fell to $18 after the iPO). If it's in the $25 - $40 range, I may pick up a few shares. Amazon and Ford have invested in it for reasons only speculated on.

 

[kcowan]

Amazon CEO on the BoD! The fix is in!

 

[aja8888]

Amazon CEO on the BoD! The fix is in!

He's reportedly going to buy 100,000 EV delivery vans from them "someday"...

 

[Qs Laptop]

Doesn't interest me. When they actually build some vehicles and sell some I might take another look at it.

Usually, these sorts of start-ups end up being constant repetitive stock offerings to meet expenses. This makes the balance sheet look pretty good until you look at the "Shares Issued" line item by quarters.

 

[Christine]

I read somewhere today that when Tesla was valued as high as Rivian is now they had produced around 1 million cars. How many have Rivian made?


So was Tesla undervalued then or is Rivian overvalued now?

 

[MRG]

I read somewhere today that when Tesla was valued as high as Rivian is now they had produced around 1 million cars. How many have Rivian made?


So was Tesla undervalued then or is Rivian overvalued now?

[emoji16]

Sometimes the current market reminds me of the later 1990s. Question is what part.

 

[Letj]

What makes Rivian more valuable than Lucid? At least Lucid has already delivered some cars.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

What makes Rivian more valuable than Lucid? At least Lucid has already delivered some cars.

Good question. I do not see what all the hoopla is about Rivian. I wonder if its share price will get adjusted back down after all the excitement fades.

 

[NW-Bound]

I read somewhere today that when Tesla was valued as high as Rivian is now they had produced around 1 million cars. How many have Rivian made?

So was Tesla undervalued then or is Rivian overvalued now?

[emoji16]

Sometimes the current market reminds me of the later 1990s. Question is what part.

The stock valuation of new companies is similar to the comparative valuation of real estate. During the housing bubble, when a home in a neighborhood is sold for $X, appraisers will look at that, and price the next house for sale at $X+$10,000. The bid keeps going up after one sale and the next, until the whole thing collapses.

That's how it works, and how it ends.

 

[NW-Bound]

FOMO rules supreme, from cryptocurrency to unicorn stocks. Rivian is so richly valued in comparison to Tesla. In terms of valuation, Tesla does not hold a candle to Rivian.

"According to the plan, by the end of this year, Rivian will produce and deliver more than 1,000 electric vehicles (all types)."

And here's how Tesla valuation looks. The fewer cars you make the more valuable you are. People should look to Nikola, who has made 0 vehicle, and does not even have a prototype. Way better valuation than Rivian, at $5.6B for 0 vehicle, vs. Rivian's $100B for 1000 vehicles. Buy, buy, buy...

 

[teetee]

I read somewhere today that when Tesla was valued as high as Rivian is now they had produced around 1 million cars. How many have Rivian made?


So was Tesla undervalued then or is Rivian overvalued now?

I think it was a different time then. Tesla had no competitors but the suspicion from the public that if they (or any e companies) are going to survive was huge. I'm pretty sure there's still short sellers thinking Tesla will not make it to this day.

But you are right, with increased production, more investors would believe in the company's future more before putting their money on the table.

Rivian has put a lot of resources into marketing but they are still relatively new. I am not entirely convinced the general public will shake off that they are a flyby EV company image for a while.

 

[Christine]

And here's how Tesla valuation looks. The fewer cars you make the more valuable you are. People should look to Nikola, who has made 0 vehicle, and does not even have a prototype. Way better valuation than Rivian, at $5.6B for 0 vehicle, vs. Rivian's $100B for 1000 vehicles. Buy, buy, buy...

I would think the investors in Tesla also look at charts like these:

(note that the last line in red above is not for the full year)


where Tesla grows market share, revenue and profits while other brands not so much:

Source for these graphs: https://twitter.com/ICannot_Enough

 

[NW-Bound]

Oh, I have also looked at Tesla's sales and earnings growth. And it is respectable.

However, the stock is priced as if Tesla has taken all over the car manufacturing, to become THE car maker of the world. I remain skeptical of that. It's not like nobody else knows how to build EVs, which are really just battery and electric motor. Tesla may have features other cars do not have, but is it enough to drive all other makers to bankruptcy?

But back on this Rivian, it's a real company and may build good vehicles. It's not worth $100B though.

How good a company needs to be, to command such prices? How nice a home has to be if it were to sell for $1 million/square foot? Is there a limit to anything?

 

[Qs Laptop]

FOMO rules supreme, from cryptocurrency to unicorn stocks. Rivian is so richly valued in comparison to Tesla. In terms of valuation, Tesla does not hold a candle to Rivian.

"According to the plan, by the end of this year, Rivian will produce and deliver more than 1,000 electric vehicles (all types)."

And here's how Tesla valuation looks. The fewer cars you make the more valuable you are. People should look to Nikola, who has made 0 vehicle, and does not even have a prototype. Way better valuation than Rivian, at $5.6B for 0 vehicle, vs. Rivian's $100B for 1000 vehicles. Buy, buy, buy...

Now do projected sales for Tesla and other car manufacturers for 2031.

 

[Qs Laptop]

However, the stock is priced as if Tesla has taken all over the car manufacturing, to become THE car maker of the world. I remain skeptical of that. It's not like nobody else knows how to build EVs, which are really just battery and electric motor.

And that's the beauty of it. Less moving parts, fewer maintenance and breakdowns. Not ever going to a gas station or needing an oil change. Plugging your car into your outlet at home. Etc. etc. I'm sure you are aware of this stuff, but it's truly disruptive to the status quo.

Tesla may have features other cars do not have, but is it enough to drive all other makers to bankruptcy?

Bankruptcy of all other car makers is a bit harsh. That's not realistic.

It's not just the features on the Tesla vehicles. It's the efficiencies they are getting out of the giga factories, meaning they will be able to throughput more vehicles per hour at a lower price than other car manufacturers. It's autonomous driving--Tesla has a huge lead in this area. It's EV battery technology and charging station networks. Tesla leads by far in this area. Solar roof panels. Tesla is not simply an EV car maker. It's a whole system.

But back on this Rivian, it's a real company and may build good vehicles. It's not worth $100B though.

Can't be. They don't have revenue.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Sales projection out to 2031? Does anybody have a crystal ball that good?

About self-driving cars, don't get me started. People who think Tesla has a lead on this technology will do well to check out demos by MobilEye demonstrating an SDC driving around Tel Aviv with no lidar a year ago. It puts Tesla to shame. Compared to MobilEye's performance more than a year ago, the current Tesla FSD looks farcical, as seen on many YouTube videos.

And MobilEye still says it's not ready. The guy who makes the most noise is often not the best.


But back on Rivian, Tesla looks like a value stock compared to Rivian. I don't touch any of these names in the EV sector. They may be fine companies, but their stock valuation is not something I want to pay.

 

[aja8888]

But back on Rivian, Tesla looks like a value stock compared to Rivian. I don't touch any of these names in the EV sector. They may be fine companies, but their stock valuation is not something I want to pay.

When the market takes a big breather from the over-hype almost everywhere, a readjustment in value will take place. Just hope you are not one of many holding the empty bag.

 

[Christine]

However, the stock is priced as if Tesla has taken all over the car manufacturing, to become THE car maker of the world. I remain skeptical of that. It's not like nobody else knows how to build EVs, which are really just battery and electric motor. Tesla may have features other cars do not have, but is it enough to drive all other makers to bankruptcy?

I hope they don't - or buying cars will become very boring.


The main issue with making many EVs is battery supply. Tesla is battery constrained. Even when they are the largest buyer of batteries. The challenge for the others is that they have all to share what is left. Before the current chip shortages many EV factories had to stop production temporarily because of battery shortages.


Tesla is currently building at least two battery factories in addition to the two they currently have. In this area they are way ahead of the competition. Their battery factories are also aiming for much higher production capacity than the new factories I read are being built or planned by others.