anyone know where the market will hit bottom?

[harley]

I do. But I'm not telling.

 

[NW-Bound]

I do. But I'm not telling.

Not after you already buy? Don't you want more people to buy after you, to drive it up?

 

[latexman]

No, but this correction moved my asset allocation more than 5% points, so I re-balanced this morning. You may want to check that out too.

 

[corn18]

I'm betting the market will recover to record highs by 14 March because that is when my 6 figure bonus (after tax) hits my bank account and I always invest it right away. So there is no way the markets will still be down when that happens. It will then drop back down into a prolonged bear followed by 20 years of stagflation because I am planning to retire in 1 year.

 

[Kwirk]

I have no idea when the market will hit bottom but I have my doubts that we are close. People are still eager to buy the dip and I'm not at all sure that this is a short-term dip.

I did sell a relatively small fraction of my equities in several transactions over the past couple of months, just on the feeling that the market has been a bit too exuberant for too long and that the downside risk of this virus is huge. I chose not to resist the temptation. If I see that most people become pessimistic about the market recovering I'll start putting it back in.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

February 28th 2020 @ 10.04am.

 

[kgtest]

February 28th 2020 @ 10.04am.

ROFL! Ahh man you cracked me up! Seriously...probably when I stop getting robocalls telling me I am approved for 250k.

 

[NYEXPAT]

That's an easy one, 2346.58 on the SPX!

 

[dirtbiker]

I just purchased some shares of QQQ, SPY, and AAPL two days ago after a couple rough days in the market. I wish I had waited another couple days.

 

[Clone]

Anyone who even tries is either:
- Fooling themselves
- Full of it
- Trolling

or some combination of the above.

I'll take 'What is 66.66 (repeating of course) percent?' for 1000, Alex!

I am trying to figure out when to pull the trigger on doing some ROTH conversions. When I think about the math, my head starts to hurt. Let's say that I have $50K that I am going to convert. It is sitting in a tIRA, in a total market type fund. I will convert it in-kind, and pay for the taxes out of after-tax funds (actually by witholding 100% from the RMD of an inherited IRA).

If I wait, and the market continues to drop, then I pay less taxes. If the market recovers, then Uncle Sam loses.

If I convert now, and the market continues to drop, then I paid too much in taxes. And Uncle Sam wins. But if it recovers, then I can still win, and I think Sam loses?

Timing of any type is a fool's errand, but I have to pick a time to make this conversion. So any time that I pick is wrong, but doing nothing is wrong, so I am right to do this?

I am going to wait for a dead cat bounce, and then wait for a couple days of green before I pull the trigger on the first ROTH conversion. Tentatively about 50% of my plan for the year. If Mr. Market continues to go down, then I will convert more at an improved position. If it goes up, then irrational exuberance! If it continues to flop down, maybe I go to 150% of my planned ROTH conversions.

 

[NW-Bound]

I just sold 1/2 of my put contracts on CCL, July 37.5. They have quadrupled since I bought them more than 2 weeks ago. The remaining contracts, I will keep to see what happens, but even if CCL goes back up and the options become worthless, I already recover the cost of the whole lot, plus a 100% return.

Not a lot of money here. If I sold all of these contracts now, the gain would still be 1% of what I "lost" on the whole portfolio so far. It's play money.


PS. This is the 1st time I bought puts like this. My few earlier attempts with buying bear ETFs did not work out well. But that was also play money.

 

[Freedom56]

The only rally you will see moving forward are from short sellers covering their positions. I would be surprised if someone going long would take a large position today before a weekend and the headline risk before the Monday open. If you want to understand how bubbles unravel, go back 20 years and look at the charts. Many sectors in the market are in a deep secular bear market like energy, retail, and REITs. That trend will continue. Take a company like Exxon Mobile. Twenty years ago, Exxon had a pristine balance sheet, but after decades of issuing debt to buy back stock, it's almost trading where it was 20 years ago with a balance sheet bloated with debt. The oil drilling sectors is all but wiped out as far as equity and bond investors are concerned. Those MLP investors have been getting wiped out. All this was happening while the indexes were hitting new highs. Today we see some rotation into energy, REITS, and retail, but is that move really rational?

 

[swakyaby]

Wish I had waited before Roth converting $250K last month.

 

[Kwirk]

I expect to use money from a federal money market fund for my Roth conversion this year. The amount is pre-determined by my tax situation. Then, when I think the market may be at a relative low, I'll buy a stock fund in the Roth while simultaneously selling the same fund in the tIRA.

I guess that's a sort of market timing but it does give me a chance at optimizing my conversion.

 

[Dtail]

I'm still waiting for Gundlach's prediction of 3.5% 10 year bond yield.

 

[Amethyst]

Lots of 2008 threads are showing up under "Similar Threads" on my page.

 

[ls99]

The market will hit bottom at: NYSE, 11 Wall Street, Lower Manhattan, New York City, New York.

 

[ugeauxgirl]

I bought some today. I don't know when it will bottom but a 15% off sale just proved irresistible. The funny thing is, I had JUST taken money out of stocks last month to make my portfolio more conservative. Since bond prices are up, I made a profit on that. I love it when that happens.

 

[RobbieB]

The market will hit bottom on April first!

 

[Rickt]

Don't know when the mkt will hit bottom.
So Did Tax Loss Harvesting in taxable acct today
VTIAX (Vanguard International Fund) >> VFWAX (Vanguard FTSE EX-US World Fund)
VTMSX (Vanguard Tax Managed small Cap Fund)>> VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund)
Will Rebalance next week if the rebalance bars get hit
Have a great Weekend!

 

[rayinpenn]

Its been suggested that the efficient market theory has been in play and the virus impacts already factored into the Market. The trouble is I’m it sure that true. Ask yourself what business wouldn’t be adversely affected if no one left their homes? I sold a big chunk a while back because i felt I had done well and wanted to capture the profits.

The trouble is no one knows...panic selling naah thats always a bad move.

 

[DrRoy]

I do. But I'm not telling.

Well, that's just not nice. I know too, and I will tell.
Maybe the market has hit bottom, and maybe it hasn't.

 

[RAE]

This could very well kick us into a recession, with a long recovery. Even if it doesn't, I think there's still plenty more downside for this market to come.

I agree, but of course that is only a guess on my part, as nobody knows for sure. I just read something that made a pretty good case for a 20-25% decline from the highs over the next month or two. The problem with this sell off is that the coronavirus thing is not going to get any better over the next few months, so I don't see how there is going to be a quick recovery. As someone else said, supply chains are being disrupted all over the world because of CV, so it follows that earnings will start to be affected soon also.

 

[Nemo2]

When/if this all subsides, there will/should, Inshallah, be substantial pent up demand.

 

[LRDave]

Me personally - I'm neither doing my Roth conversion nor buying the dip until the: "It's just the flu, brah..." narrative stops.