Bank Stocks

[Running_Man]

Me too Red....

....so I can sell some BAC and put it in JNJ, have enough capital losses to never worry about tax increases (or capital gains taxes for that matter) for...say....EVER!....and MAYBE get back on the right track to solvency??

Sound like a plan RunningMan??

I am reticent to put so much in one stock, however I would be willing to sell portions of BAC and buy KO and JNJ. Obviously one problem is this could be a bottom for BAC at this point, also the fact that your dividend income shrinks by about 2/3 for every dollar of BAC you would convert into KO or JNJ hurts quite a bit.
You have some very difficult decisions on your retirement and investments and you deserve to have everything work out for you sooner rather than later and I hope your fortunes turn out that way.

 

[Meadbh]

I've also been looking at the Canadian Banks. I also wrote off CBIC but I am curious as to why BMO didn't make your list. Which Canadian banks will not cut their dividends?

BMO is OK too. As for cutting dividends, who knows? See this morning's Globe and Mail:

reportonbusiness.com: Dividends are safe, says TD's Clark

 

[al_bundy]

looks like Citi dividends are going bye bye

 

[Hank]

BMO is OK too. As for cutting dividends, who knows? See this morning's Globe and Mail:

reportonbusiness.com: Dividends are safe, says TD's Clark

Thanks for the article....BMO is up 12% today. This article plus the overall rally gave it quite a boost.

 

[Meadbh]

I've also been looking at the Canadian Banks. I also wrote off CBIC but I am curious as to why BMO didn't make your list. Which Canadian banks will not cut their dividends?

You are right, BMO's Q4 profits announced today were up 24% and its common stock closed at C$34.95, up 83¢. But they will not forecast performance in future quarters (perhaps wisely).

 

[Hank]

You are right, BMO's Q4 profits announced today were up 24% and its common stock closed at C$34.95, up 83¢. But they will not forecast performance in future quarters (perhaps wisely).

The dividend is what keeps me interested in this company but I am still leary that the Canadian banks will come out of this period of time without getting hurt more.

 

[Meadbh]

The dividend is what keeps me interested in this company but I am still leary that the Canadian banks will come out of this period of time without getting hurt more.

Did you see this article in the G&M? Part of the ongoing economic meltdown blog:

reportonbusiness.com: Canadian banks have a long dividend record

"The big banks have an astonishingly long record of consistently paying dividends. Bank of Montreal has been distributing them non-stop since 1829 - almost 180 years, the longest unbroken record of any Canadian company. Bank of Nova Scotia's streak goes back to 1833, TD's to 1857, CIBC's to 1868 and Royal's to 1870."

If they are writing about it, obviously you are not the only person wondering.

This meltdown is breaking the rules every day so I don't think anything can be considered a sure thing.

 

[Hank]

"The big banks have an astonishingly long record of consistently paying dividends. Bank of Montreal has been distributing them non-stop since 1829 - almost 180 years, the longest unbroken record of any Canadian company. Bank of Nova Scotia's streak goes back to 1833, TD's to 1857, CIBC's to 1868 and Royal's to 1870."

If they are writing about it, obviously you are not the only person wondering.

I did see this and I think a lot of people are wondering if they will stay strong. The Canadian's like to think that their banks are somehow less apt to engage in the same shennanigans (sp) as their US counterparts but that seems only to hold true for the Canadian operations.

 

[Meadbh]

I've also been looking at the Canadian Banks. I also wrote off CBIC but I am curious as to why BMO didn't make your list. Which Canadian banks will not cut their dividends?

Here's some food for thought on BMO:

Bank Of Montreal – Is The Dividend Safe?

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

An issue that has transpired in the past year was the purchase of Wal-Mu by BAC, which is not working right now as they thought it would and the Merrill Lynch fiasco.

Er, WalMu was bought (from the FDIC) by JP Morgan Chase, not Bank of America. Bank of America did buy CountryWide.

 

[MISTER ED]

Monday morning quarterback

Funny to hear that as posted long ago and look what happened

 

[virginia]

What happened with this thread? I read most of it, hoping to get to the current info and it ended last month!?!

Asking because I'm considering buying WFC and BAC, but am wondering to what extent the nationalization talk is serious?

 

[haha]

I believe this thread went silent because it appears so difficult to have any idea what the probablilities, or even possibilities, are.

Ha

 

[virginia]

I had considered that, but blew it off because there are few silent members on this forum

 

[haha]

I had considered that, but blew it off because there are few silent members on this forum

True enough. But getting one's fingers smashed has a way of inculcating caution.

Here are two recent threads which touch on bank stocks:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/bac-wtf-41843.html

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/adios-and-thanks-for-all-41947.html

ha

 

[Gardnr]

It's a pure crap shoot at this point. You may hit it big, or lose it all. The big bank stocks are purely speculative. Hard to call it investing at this point.

I'm sure there are some smaller banks out there that have run a decent business. I've heard that's so. But who can trust any of them right now?

 

[virginia]

Thanks Ha and Gardnr -
I'm not interested in speculating really. There are too many good stocks on sale, and it was a thought. Wells Fargo was really my number 1 choice if I were to pick one of the two, but I'm thinking I'd be foolish to do it, especially with gov't pick and choose interference in the industry right now.

 

[Danny]

I just got around to this thread. I started at the beginning in 2007 and have been fascinated by it. By far the best read I've had here since joining.

I'm sad for the people that have suffered (i've taken hits too) and impressed by the forum's Nouriel Roubinis that raised flags.

Seeing the prices of stocks that were thought to be super cheap bargains at the time and looking at them now is stunning and has shaken my confidence in thinking I know anything for certain anymore about stocks and the markets.

I felt the urge when reading to shout out and warn the posters - NO, No, No, DON'T buy it - its going to be so much more cheap later!!!!

Nothing is certain except for taxes death Murphy's Law and ?

I recommend to anyone that hasn't read from the beginning - Do so.

Reading this thread concurrent with the collapse of the markets is the best lesson I've had in 40 years of investing.

 

[unclemick]

Let's see - checking the Norwegian widow's dead and dying dividend file - I have - Aetna, Union Pacific joined by Eagle, Bank America, UBS -Ag, and Citigroup.

Patience my butt - I would get the whip out and join the self flagulents but that went out with the Middle Ages and someone here is using the med emote.

My never say die - now that football is close to ending says - Wells Fargo and perhaps Sun Trust.

Right now - it's the o crap I don't wanna do nothing mode.

heh heh heh - At least my Target Retirement computers are rebalancing their little hearts out daily.

 

[Purron]

heh heh heh - At least my Target Retirement computers are rebalancing their little hearts out daily.

So what are the computers "rebalancing" your money into? Tin foil, canned beans, whiskey and ammo?

 

[haha]

I just scanned the whole thread, mostly looking for really stupid things that I said. I am relieved that there isn't much in the "whole foot in the mouth" category. These mainline banks scared me from the beginning, though I did play with fire and make a few trades, mostly in late 2007.

And regionals? The only bank in WA that I am reasonably sure will survive is WFSL. IMO that alone does not make it a good investment.

Too many moving parts in the banking space. The bank itself, with its who knows how realistic accounting; the Fed; Treasury; the US Congress; the unfolding Obamarama; the recession; whirled peas, etc.

Also interesting to see that VA proclaimed his intention to play BAC to the max from the beginning, in spite of many cautionary comments from us less swashbuckling members. Kind of nice to see that much old time spirit, even if it didn't pan out.

Ha

 

[virginia]

I just scanned the whole thread, mostly looking for really stupid things that I said.

I can always rely on you - Ha and ReWahoo for a good laugh.

I ended up buying BB&T. I think it's a Wells Fargo equivalent (as far as stability) with less risk of volatility.

....we'll see.

 

[clifp]

I just scanned the whole thread, mostly looking for really stupid things that I said. I am relieved that there isn't much in the "whole foot in the mouth" category. These mainline banks scared me from the beginning, though I did play with fire and make a few trades, mostly in late 2007.

That inspired me to do the same. Really pretty educational for me.

The good news is I did a good job separating the winners from the loser.
In the deep Kimchee category a year+ ago, I place Citi, Wachovia, and NCC. In the potential trouble but maybe worth the risk I placed BAC.
In the good bank category I said USB, BBT, and WFC. On relative basis all of them performed exactly as I called them. Surely there must be a prize for correctly picking which trees are most likely to survive a massive out-of-control wildfire. Surely there most be another prize for standing in the middle of forest, seeing smoke, and rather than getting into the car, and fleeing, instead chosing to climb up a tree a deciding to ride out the fire while confidently declaring dividends are the key for survival.

I even (possibly) managed to predict the exact bottom of the banking stocks Jan 20. Sadly I am no longer able to edit my post and change Jan 20,2008 to Jan 20,2009.

I assume Running Man collected his prize for yelling FIRE, FIRE,FIRE. Hopefully it is called capital preservation.

 

[NW-Bound]

Believe it or not, I did not run across this thread until 10 minutes ago. I found and joined this forum in July 08, but rarely looked into this "Stock Picking" subforum. I came here for camaraderie in ER, not for stock tips, nor to argue politics.

Shortly after coming here, I read a post from VA about throwing all he had into BAC. That was in another thread. I was also telling people of my past mistakes with tech stocks in 2000, and how I realized my mistakes and recovered. I also cautioned against putting too much into one sector, leave alone just one stock.

Now reading this thread for the 1st time, actually just the first few dozen posts, I already felt my hair raised.

Talking of tech stocks, of the three big network switch guys, Cisco, Lucent, and Nortel, only Cisco remains. Nortel was trading down as a penny stock before declaring bankruptcy a few days ago. The media did not even bother to provide much coverage on that news. Lucent, the owner of prestigious Bell Labs, merged with Alcatel, and nobody cares about the combined company either. In 2000, all these were huge megacorps with greater than $100B market caps. Sandcastles all.

It's depressing. I don't know if I want to go back to read all of this thread.

 

[Gpond]

08-30-2007, 07:56 PM Bank stocks in general are an amazing bargain