Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 04-20-2020, 01:01 PM   #221
Moderator
Aerides's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 8,024
whatever anyone is saying about oil is out of date by the time they finish typing.
Aerides is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-15-2020, 07:41 AM   #222
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,604
__________________
ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2020, 07:55 AM   #223
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 126
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
This chart totally makes sense. People are staying at home, ordering online...up 8.4%. Gardening and doing home projects...slightly down. Almost representative of a basic needs chart.
nap470 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2020, 08:16 AM   #224
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 7,093
More narration about the retail sales drop here:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/re...mw_share_email

There is also a chart for month-by-month change going back to 2008.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2021, 02:50 PM   #225
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,604
Multi Year Commodities breaking out of long term channel.
Attached Images
File Type: png Commod 2021.png (121.4 KB, 121 views)
__________________
ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2021, 03:25 PM   #226
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 1,728
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Multi Year Commodities breaking out of long term channel.
Thanks for posting, time for that money sloshing through the system to be reflected in real things?

I'm loving this 10 year FCX chart: http://tos.mx/ihjeQPB

I am long FCX @ average cost = $9.18, but it's been a long hard road until recently.

ETA:Uploaded as image.
Attached Images
File Type: png fcx.PNG (102.2 KB, 21 views)
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2021, 03:28 PM   #227
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 6,884
I took a look at metals ETFs as I believe that cooper, CFX stock in particular, will be very profitable for the miners. I wish I had the nerve to buy one but when I chart them they just too volatile.

Anyone with wire should protect it like gold!
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2021, 06:50 AM   #228
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 7,093
I had a commodities fund (like BCOM I think) say 12-15 years ago (in 401(k)). I baled on it, though. Never did understand the commodities basket approach. I'll put more effort into that.
Attached Images
File Type: png BCOM.PNG (25.5 KB, 18 views)
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2021, 08:24 AM   #229
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded View Post
Thanks for posting, time for that money sloshing through the system to be reflected in real things?

I'm loving this 10 year FCX chart: http://tos.mx/ihjeQPB

I am long FCX @ average cost = $9.18, but it's been a long hard road until recently.

ETA:Uploaded as image.
FCX is also one of my long-term holdings, and recently has given me a decent gain. I also have AA, and good old X, but these two were beaten down so bad that I am still in the red despite their recent rise. I also have NGLOY and BHP, and am in the black there. Almost forgot the ETFs XME and XLB, the latter having some metal mining components. Most of these holdings, I have held since 2000, but add or reduce from time to time as market condition varies.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2021, 08:59 AM   #230
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,756
Besides the rise in industrial metal prices (copper, iron, aluminum, zinc, tin), I also noted that phosphate used for fertilizer has been going up. And that is reflected in the price of my shares of phosphate miners.

Is this the sign of inflation rearing its ugly head? Too much printed money, and not enough people working to produce the "stuff"? I will just raise these questions for people to ponder.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2021, 04:56 PM   #231
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 1,728
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Besides the rise in industrial metal prices (copper, iron, aluminum, zinc, tin), I also noted that phosphate used for fertilizer has been going up. And that is reflected in the price of my shares of phosphate miners.

Is this the sign of inflation rearing its ugly head? Too much printed money, and not enough people working to produce the "stuff"? I will just raise these questions for people to ponder.
If you were investing new funds in this area, what would you nibble on (other than FCX). Individual stock? ETF? If so, what?
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-05-2021, 09:18 PM   #232
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded View Post
If you were investing new funds in this area, what would you nibble on (other than FCX). Individual stock? ETF? If so, what?

I don't have any insight into which company would be the best winner in this space. Back in the period between 2003 and 2008, we went through a period where commodities like industrial metal, fertilizer, and construction material prices went through the roof. I just made myself a mixture of all the big names in each of these specialized sectors in order to diversify away individual company risks. It was a tide that lifted all boats, and they all did well, some more than others. I made money overall, and that was all I cared.

Anyone can do a bit of a search to find these names. I remember back then making good money on phosphate producers when the price of phosphate went from $50/ton to $400/ton. It was said that China farmers used a lot more fertilizers than their Western counterparts to maximize the yield of their limited arable land. If that was true, then why did phosphate price drop to as low as $70 recently? I don't know. I sold the stocks when the stock price tumbled along with the Great Recession, and looked for something else. The price of phosphate has slowly climbed back to $82.

There was a housing bubble around the world at the same time the US was developing a subprime time bomb. There was a shortage of building material, and I remember making money buying Lafarge, a cement producer.

Yes, I just sprinkled money on companies in these hot sectors, and made decent money. It was nothing like people did recently with Tesla and other hot stocks, but I managed to beat the S&P. I was not 100% in these hot sectors either, only overweighed in them.

PS. I mentioned XME for industrial metals earlier. For copper alone, there's COPX.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2021, 05:52 AM   #233
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 3,527
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Multi Year Commodities breaking out of long term channel.
That seems like a very good sign to me for the worldwide economy.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2021, 06:27 AM   #234
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 7,093
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrRoy View Post
That seems like a very good sign to me for the worldwide economy.
Yes, there is indication this bodes well for economies unless there is another global boogie-man around the corner!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?...t=&et=&rid=242
Attached Images
File Type: jpg fredgraph commodities recessions.jpg (71.3 KB, 29 views)
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2021, 01:43 PM   #235
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,604


Dollar set to run into trouble at year end if Julian Bridgen dollar model is correct.
__________________
ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-29-2021, 02:04 PM   #236
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 2,890
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post


Dollar set to run into trouble at year end if Julian Bridgen dollar model is correct.
And here I got lots of cash. Shoot.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2021, 03:03 PM   #237
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Multi Year Commodities breaking out of long term channel.
Note in the 4 months since I posted this the index has increased to 90.36 a new 52 week high and right at the 2018 peak which forced the FED to start raising interest rates. In 2007 just before the housing bubble popped it was at 240.00 so commodities are still down a long way over 14 years. But we are at a key inflection point, where the FED has acted in the past.

__________________
ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2021, 09:26 AM   #238
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Note in the 4 months since I posted this the index has increased to 90.36 a new 52 week high and right at the 2018 peak which forced the FED to start raising interest rates. In 2007 just before the housing bubble popped it was at 240.00 so commodities are still down a long way over 14 years. But we are at a key inflection point, where the FED has acted in the past.

We have now broken the 2018 Peak and are at a new 5 year high at 92.74. Copper today is 100% higher than a year ago, Nickel prices have risen 12% in the last week and Lumber Prices are 484% above a year ago and 250% above the previous 5 year high. White Whole Chicken breasts are up 104% in the last year and home prices average 27% higher. Fortunately per the official government statistics inflation has only increased 2.6% over last year.
__________________
ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2021, 08:55 AM   #239
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 7,093
We're in the early phase of a business cycle according to Fidelity (https://institutional.fidelity.com/a...569_40890.html). Commodities and materials pick up, correct?
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2021, 09:35 AM   #240
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 1,728
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
We're in the early phase of a business cycle according to Fidelity (https://institutional.fidelity.com/a...569_40890.html). Commodities and materials pick up, correct?
We are in the early phases of something, that's for sure. I'm feeling that I haven't been nearly aggressive enough at hedging for "transitory" inflation. This is coming from someone with about 7% of my assets in TIPS/inflation adjusted iBonds, about 3+% in precious metals (funds and some physical), and another 1% or so in things like food/energy/copper stocks, and 40+ acres of mostly hardwoods land.
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Yahoo fund chart built-in distortion joesxm3 FIRE and Money 11 12-19-2007 01:18 PM
Mutual Fund Chart with Dividend reinvested. Link? Sam Other topics 8 03-09-2007 11:13 PM
New Month- -Same Old Chart JPatrick FIRE and Money 10 02-28-2006 07:36 AM
Chart of S&P 500 v. P/E (both ttm and ftm) Arin38 FIRE and Money 12 07-03-2005 10:07 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:02 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.