Changing World Age Demographics

Koolau said:
The issue I always "worried" about with China and the (until recently) one-child policy is that male children were favored (girls more likely aborted or adopted to the West): Where will all those males get mates? What about the issues surrounding millions of males without mates? Makes one wonder. YMMV
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This has been an issue- I follow BBC podcasts and I remember a couple noting that young men were finding it hard to get wives because there were fewer females. If you didn't have a house, a car, etc. you were out of luck. Another podcast covered the proliferation of older (70+) women in Korea engaging in prostitution to make money.

And yes, I've also read about the issues surrounding a declining birth rate. I'm glad we're not dealing with Erlich's scenario of famine, overcrowding and scarcities, but we will have to face issues with fewer people in the workforce supporting an aging population. One webinar I watched on the subject of Worker's Comp. issues with an aging workforce noted that in Japan they had 80-year old ladies assembling electronics in special workstations that accommodate wheel chairs and have high-power magnifiers. Made me shudder.
 
athena53 said:
This has been an issue- I follow BBC podcasts and I remember a couple noting that young men were finding it hard to get wives because there were fewer females. If you didn't have a house, a car, etc. you were out of luck. Another podcast covered the proliferation of older (70+) women in Korea engaging in prostitution to make money.

And yes, I've also read about the issues surrounding a declining birth rate. I'm glad we're not dealing with Erlich's scenario of famine, overcrowding and scarcities, but we will have to face issues with fewer people in the workforce supporting an aging population. One webinar I watched on the subject of Worker's Comp. issues with an aging workforce noted that in Japan they had 80-year old ladies assembling electronics in special workstations that accommodate wheel chairs and have high-power magnifiers. Made me shudder.
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If you want to be freaked out by the potential demographics time-bomb, read "The Coming Generational Storm" by Laurence Kotlikoff and Scott Burns. Frightening. If you're worried about the "national debt" and SS running out of money (I am and you should be too) consider the coming MC time bomb which dwarfs national debt (and even SS) issues.

Returning you now...
 
I don't know what is going to happen, but I'm confident that having a lot of money will help ameliorate the worst effects.
 
Gumby said:
I don't know what is going to happen, but I'm confident that having a lot of money will help ameliorate the worst effects.
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"I never been in no situation where havin' money made it any worse." Clinton Jones

(Old quote used to introduce Chapter 8, Securing Your Future in "The Coming Generational Storm" mentioned above.
 
I'm not convinced a shrinking population is such a bad thing. I know, I know. All the "experts" think continual growth is necessary. I suspect that's only because growth is what made them rich.

Fewer people means we can make better use of our existing infrastructure and all the factors of production we've already invested in. There should be more of everything to go around, if there were fewer people using them. Ordinary people don't need growth. That's only required if you want to make your living investing.

People of our generation are accustomed to doing that. We're playing the cards we were dealt, and that's fine. But in a different economic climate, I suspect people would find other ways to become successful.
 
CaptTom said:
I'm not convinced a shrinking population is such a bad thing. I know, I know. All the "experts" think continual growth is necessary. I suspect that's only because growth is what made them rich.

Fewer people means we can make better use of our existing infrastructure and all the factors of production we've already invested in. There should be more of everything to go around, if there were fewer people using them. Ordinary people don't need growth. That's only required if you want to make your living investing.

People of our generation are accustomed to doing that. We're playing the cards we were dealt, and that's fine. But in a different economic climate, I suspect people would find other ways to become successful.
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I'm sure this subject could occupy us for an entire thread. "Growth" is the current model that has proven successful. When economies/cultures have rejected it (think Japan) you see what can happen.

Obviously, growth can't continue forever as the world won't hold 100s of billions of people. SO, it has to stop. But lack of growth will be a paradigm shift that we had better be ready for IMHO. The good news: I won't be here to see it.:LOL::cool:
 
Sorry, maybe I should ask: Has anyone else here read the Kotlikoff and Burns book? I've often referred to it, but never heard that anyone has actually read it.

It's getting a bit out of date, I think, and not everything they predicted has come true just yet, but I can see it coming true. Left to normal forces, MC and other gummint programs (especially SS - but others as well) will certainly explode.

So far, because the gummint has the power of the press (the money printing press, that is) we have been able to put off some of the worst effects of unfunded liabilities. But that can't last forever.

And unfortunately, it's so much easier to kick can's down the road than to deal with them. But, eventually that Campbells soup can will become a 55 gallon drum. Not so easy to kick.

If I sound pessimistic, it's because I am.:blush::angel:
 
Gumby said:
I don't know what is going to happen, but I'm confident that having a lot of money will help ameliorate the worst effects.
Click to expand...

I don't have the financial expertise or the more intricate mathematical skills of many here and never earned a big paycheck as a teacher. My plan was to eventually position myself where I had no debts, owned my own modest home, and saved/invested enough to see me through without having to rely on SS and Medicare or worry about inflation. I saw this as the ideal retirement situation and planned accordingly before I found this forum.
None of this business about accumulating the bare minimum to get by as long as I have SS and Medicare.
It helps that I understand my limitations, enjoy my lifestyle, and have no need to keep up with the Jones.
Now that I have been retired for 12 years it seems to be working. I will eventually find out if the plan worked as I envisioned once I get to my expiration date. By then I hope to have a nice inheritance for the 2 grown step-children. They should be retired by then.

Cheers!

Cheers!
 
@Badger, I think you're making my point perfectly. If your goal is a comfortable life, there are ways to accomplish that. It's only if your goal is to amass excess wealth that you need "growth." This is at the root of all the talk of income inequality. The drive to squeeze more and more out of the economy, by a smaller and smaller group of high-rolling investors.

It just doesn't make sense that growth is necessary for the rest of us to do quite well in a steady-state economy.
 
CaptTom said:
... It just doesn't make sense that growth is necessary for the rest of us to do quite well in a steady-state economy.
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I believe that many human behaviors can be understood by looking to evolution, specifically to behaviors that result in the actor contributing disproportionately to the gene pool. From that POV greed is good. The man (usually) who amasses the most money and the most food is the man whose family is best positioned to survive famines and he is the man who can obtain and maintain the most women. Sexual aggressiveness is also a desirable trait; the more children the man fathers, the larger his impact on the future gene pool.

Behaviors that were driven by evolution may not serve us well now, but they are hard-wired and very resistant to socialization.
 
Gumby said:
I don't know what is going to happen, but I'm confident that having a lot of money will help ameliorate the worst effects.
Click to expand...

Yes. And if it doesn't, that means things have gone terribly badly, and I'd prefer not to be here.
 
OldShooter said:
Behaviors that were driven by evolution may not serve us well now, but they are hard-wired and very resistant to socialization.
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So very true! The older I get, the more I realize people haven't changed. We're no better than all those horrible groups of people we read about in history books. There are some very evil people among us, and for whatever reason we love to appoint or elect them as our leaders.

Just the other day I saw a video of a political rally. It's truly frightening to see people in this day and age carrying signs and expressing such hero-worship for an authoritarian leader. But what scared me the most were the signs which said something along the lines of "we want a strong leader."

Yeah. That primal instinct to follow the guy (it's usually a guy) who will be ruthless against the "other" tribe. I won't mention where in the world or what party this was, but we have all seen this sort of thing in many places. It's a terrifying, global trend. I try to stay optimistic, but it sure looks like the chances of human civilization entering another Dark Ages are non-zero.

I am hopeful that reason will win out over instinct. We've come a long way, although not without setbacks. Hopefully this time won't be one of them.
 
CaptTom said:
... That primal instinct to follow the guy (it's usually a guy) who will be ruthless against the "other" tribe. I won't mention where in the world or what party this was, but we have all seen this sort of thing in many places. It's a terrifying, global trend. ...
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I don't think tribalism is a trend. The urge to belong to as many tribes as possible is deeply wired into our genes. Big stuff like jingoism and religions have had terrible effects for millennia, even in pre-history, but sports team tribes have caused plenty of harm and we can see daily the tribal symbols that people wear on their clothes (paying extra for the garments, even!) and on their shoes. Car brand loyalty, of course.

Unfortunately, this means that racism is baked in too. In recent history tribes immigrating to the US, like the Irish, German, English and other Northern Europeans were treated viciously but eventually adopted the dominant tribe's language and customs -- becoming assimilated. Now we have immigrant tribes (and descendants of former slaves) who can instantly be identified by skin color ("Not my tribe."). For them IMO true assimilation will be delayed until all future children are coming out the same color.
 
There's always something scary in the world that's causing people to worry. I'm most concerned about people that can't be reasoned with due unshakable other-worldly beliefs. That's why I've not worried too much about China and any of our big trading partners...sure, they have different ideas, but they can be reasoned with. If you read Steven Pinker's "Better Angels of our Nature", that's a pretty convincing argument that humanity is on the right trajectory. But as was mentioned, it might take a while, and not everyone here now will be around to witness it.
 
The world population is causing us to eat everything on the planet. Certain fish stocks are gone/nearly gone, and we pave over the great farming lands.

I think humanity will basically strip the land bare and face severe hardships & war due to fighting over resources.

I'm sure folks will delay the inevitable, by eating alternatives, lab grown food, etc.

Kind of glad I'll be fertilizer before then.
 
OldShooter said:
I believe that many human behaviors can be understood by looking to evolution, specifically to behaviors that result in the actor contributing disproportionately to the gene pool. From that POV greed is good. The man (usually) who amasses the most money and the most food is the man whose family is best positioned to survive famines and he is the man who can obtain and maintain the most women. Sexual aggressiveness is also a desirable trait; the more children the man fathers, the larger his impact on the future gene pool.

Behaviors that were driven by evolution may not serve us well now, but they are hard-wired and very resistant to socialization.
Click to expand...


So, which is it. Was my vasectomy a GOOD idea or a BAD idea. I'm so confused.:cool:
 
Recently I read an article about the declining percentage of men in college. There was a comment about the problems of a future with lots of young, undereducated, underemployed, lonely men. Not a good thing.
 
True the human race has not advanced the last 2000 years, except for technology. As for population, it will ebb and flow with both human caused events and natural disasters. I believe the elites of the world are very concerned with population growth and have already implemented plans to curb population growth. After all, we minions are using up their precious resources every day(water, food, shelter)
Look at the seven wonders of world. Does anyone think these structures were build by human hands and tools alone. Before 2100 arrives we the human race will know that there are multiple other beings far more advanced than we are in the universe. They are the stewards of the universe and will guide our future.
 
Good stuff. Reality is stranger than fiction...
 
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