Do you always have a limit order going?

[Boho]

OK, so about a 1% gain in a day (before fees). Nice, but really not such a big deal considering you had an up day in the general market.

I'm up 1.13% today, on my entire portfolio (not just a 100 share subset), and I've done absolutely nothing (something I'm pretty good at )!

-ERD50

I think I'm up an average of .45.5% on my whole portfolio. .37% on the brokerage account and .54% on the IRA. I wonder why you did so much better. Maybe it's because of the multiple transactions I have happening. Fidelity's analysis page said I had like $10,000 more than I actually had for a while so I don't trust their figures 100%.

 

[ERD50]

I think I'm up an average of .45.5% on my whole portfolio. .37% on the brokerage account and .54% on the IRA. I wonder why you did so much better. Maybe it's because of the multiple transactions I have happening. Fidelity's analysis page said I had like $10,000 more than I actually had for a while so I don't trust their figures 100%.

For the reason I stated - "I've done absolutely nothing".

-ERD50

 

[exnavynuke]

1.3% gain on the day for my total portfolio. Not too shabby for not doing anything in any of my accounts today.

 

[MRG]

I think I'm up an average of .45.5% on my whole portfolio. .37% on the brokerage account and .54% on the IRA. I wonder why you did so much better. Maybe it's because of the multiple transactions I have happening. Fidelity's analysis page said I had like $10,000 more than I actually had for a while so I don't trust their figures 100%.

I'd like to think you can trust Fidelity's numbers. You might not understand how the brokerage keeps track of "in flight" settlements. In the end it will sync up.

 

[Boho]

Also, I have a lot of cash right now which didn't benefit from today's rise.

 

[exnavynuke]

Also, I have a lot of cash right now which didn't benefit from today's rise.

FYI - this is the #1 reason that market timing fails to keep up with index investing. Even if you're "right" most of the time, having your money sit on the sidelines while the market has good days means you have to be "that much better" to even catch up. Very few pull that off. The "power of compounding" works in your favor, unless you're not in the market. If you're not in the market, you miss today's gains and the gains those gains would have had in the future and the gains that would have been generated by those future gains etc.

You missed out on ~0.8% portfolio growth today. That growth is now going to miss out on future growth, and that growth isn't going to be there to grow etc.

 

[samclem]

Also, I have a lot of cash right now which didn't benefit from today's rise.

The cash doesn't know the difference. It is you who didn't benefit.

 

[Car-Guy]

I'm not a "day trader" but I do swing trade. With 49 trades so far this year, I almost always have one or more open and active limit sell orders.

 

[Boho]

The speech did me in. I have to pay more attention to upcoming events. And I don't even know how to reinvest dividends automatically.

 

[nun]

No limit orders for me. Now that I have retirement income coming in pretty much automatically I've stopped looking at my AA. If equities go up to 70% I might rebalance, but I'm not concerned about large spikes of drops in the stock market.

 

[ERD50]

Also, I have a lot of cash right now which didn't benefit from today's rise.

And this is one of the problems with this kind of trading. I've done it before with relatively small amounts. It''s fun to buy/sell and make 1% a day, sometimes the same stock 2x in the same day.

But then you get the one stock that drops 5%. And then 10%. So you hold it, figuring it will come back into play. But that money is now 'dead', and maybe that stock is too. So you decide to sell, take a loss. But that wipes out 10-20 other trades. After a while, those bad trades (and you can't win 'em all) start stacking up, taking more and more money out of play.

The speech did me in. I have to pay more attention to upcoming events.

And then what? The speech could have caused the market to go up, down, or stay flat. No one has a (reliable) crystal ball.

And I don't even know how to reinvest dividends automatically.

If you are going to trade in a taxable account, reinvesting dividends will make tax time a nightmare (or do brokers track this now?).

-ERD50

 

[Fermion]

One strategy that might work for you is to peruse the stock picking thread on ER.org and look for big threads where we say "I like oil" or "I like biotech" or "International is the place to be"

Then short the crap out of those sectors.

Would have worked well the past few years.

 

[Boho]

After a while, those bad trades (and you can't win 'em all) start stacking up, taking more and more money out of play.

Yeah, if you don't pick stocks well enough.

And then what? The speech could have caused the market to go up, down, or stay flat. No one has a (reliable) crystal ball.

I assume it usually goes up after the kind of speech that was planned. It wasn't a state of the union or financial report. It was a political feel-good speech (I didn't watch it but I heard reports). Because of the kind of speech it was, it will have a fleeting effect. The market already spiked in recent days, which is why I sold and had so much cash, then came the speech, and I believe prices will now drop fairly quickly, though they'll continue a slower, more steady decline after that before they return to stable pre-speech levels. I need a bad news day as quickly as possible so I could reinvest for a decent price.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
After a while, those bad trades (and you can't win 'em all) start stacking up, taking more and more money out of play.

Yeah, if you don't pick stocks well enough.

Quote:
And then what? The speech could have caused the market to go up, down, or stay flat. No one has a (reliable) crystal ball.

I assume it usually goes up after the kind of speech that was planned. ...

No disrespect or anything, but I'm finally gonna bow out of these discussions with you. Your first line above displays some combination of arrogance and/or naiveté that gives me the impression you are just going to have to learn the hard way.

Your second line displays such a remarkable lack of understanding of how markets work that I hope the first line isn't due to arrogance.

Good luck to you, there's nothing I can do here.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So easy to prove one way or the other. Maybe someone will care enough to do a little research on the second statement. The first one is so obvious, I don't know what else to say.

 

[samclem]

I'm waiting for someone to invent a way for me to "short" an investor of my choosing.

I don't believe I can pick stocks that will outperform the market in the future, or that I can even identify managers who will effectively do that. But I'm confident I can identify at least some investors who will do more poorly than the market as a whole, and I'd like a bit of that action.

 

[MRG]

I thought at a time I wanted to actively trade in retirement. Then I retired.

Even if I could almost consistently come close to beating an index, who cares? That's like a lot of w*rk! F that! I'm retired.

 

[Boho]

I think I'm up an average of .45.5% on my whole portfolio. .37% on the brokerage account and .54% on the IRA.

It changed to -.26% and +1.11%. The -.26% is partially due to a fund in that account being bond and foreign stock heavy. The other fund in that account went up.

 

[Boho]

I thought at a time I wanted to actively trade in retirement. Then I retired.

Even if I could almost consistently come close to beating an index, who cares? That's like a lot of w*rk! F that I'm retired.

I totally get that. I have a total of zero stocks now, down from a high of one. I want to get on to other things as quickly as possible. I kind of talk like an active trader but I've mostly been doing research.

 

[Boho]

And now I'm at -.03 and +1.39. I wonder if the changes are from after hours trading.

I decided to try Active Trader Pro which gives "Real-time integrated balances, history, and positions with real-time tax lot detail." I wonder if the web app doesn't do that.

...I need 36 trades in a rolling 12 month period to use Active Trader Pro, which I don't have.

Oh, and the IRA has about 50% more money in it so the increase for both accounts takes some calculating...Duh I see the overall gain now. 1.05%.

 

[myself]

In this video, starting at at 3:32, hear Burton Malkiel talking about it being possible to buy low and sell high. He doesn't consider this market timing.

Honestly I didn't watch the video, however that is exactly what I started doing about 3+ years ago. I set a buy order for specific stocks that I keep a close eye on for months in advance), and if/when I pick up the stock for the limit I set, I do one of 2 things: 1) set a sell order for x% above where I bought it - anywhere from 3% to 10%, or 2) sell covered call options using a limit order where I will pick up the premium along with a respective increase in stock pricing.

Keep in mind that stock options are even riskier than individual stock picking.

What is my best investment? Buying GOOGL @ 590 and using 3 different covered calls until the option was exercised @ 740 (total of 29% gain in literally 3 months in 2015), followed by a purchase at 680 and option exercise at 750, almost 1 year later. The worst was a loss on SDRL of 25%, although the position was considerably smaller than the GOOGL (drop from 33 down to 24.75 or so).

 

[myself]

I totally get that. I have a total of zero stocks now, down from a high of one. I want to get on to other things as quickly as possible. I kind of talk like an active trader but I've mostly been doing research.

I'd suggest if you were considering actively trading, that you actually set up a portfolio and test out your thoughts for 6 months to 1 year. Literally create a fake portfolio on many of the websites like Google finance or Yahoo finance - and many others, and start with whatever amount you have now as cash in the account. Remember, it's not real money. Then buy/sell and record the transaction fees as you go - most of the brokers have lowered their transaction fees recently, I know for one Fidelity has lowered theirs down to $4.95/trade. If you are up well above the major indexes, then consider trying it with only a portion of your real investment account(s).

One thing I've noticed is that you have to get above $4k-$5k before actively trading to get decent returns, mostly because you can buy more shares. After all, if the transaction fee is say $6.95/trade, you have to double that because you'd be buying and then possibly selling, and divide by the number of shares you can buy. If you can afford to buy only 10 shares the stock has to go up by $1.39 just to break even after transaction fees. If you can buy 100 shares of the stock, then the stock only has to go up $0.14 in order to break even.

Good luck either way!

 

[Car-Guy]

I thought at a time I wanted to actively trade in retirement. Then I retired.

Even if I could almost consistently come close to beating an index, who cares? That's like a lot of w*rk! F that! I'm retired.

Interesting perspective (POV). I've traded for over 40 years but didn't get serious about "active trading" until I retired. Before retirement I probably traded two or there times a year. I just didn't feel like I had the time (or money for that matter). Now that I'm retired I find it a lot more interesting and fun. Now, with that said, I am trading with a bucket of money that I can afford to lose (but would not like that). I can watch the market, research the stock(s) and then buy and sell. Maybe since I'm not dependent on these returns I don't worry much about it or feel like it's work. Well over 50 trades so far this year.

I realize that many here would not call this investing but more like gambling. Probably true and maybe that's why I feel the thrill/interest.

 

[Fermion]

I am kind of with Car-guy. I do enjoy the thrill of trading and see value in the downs as well as the ups. It has done one amazing thing. I no longer have any desire to play slots or casino table games.

When you can gain or lose $2000 in a day in stocks, putting $0.25 in a slot machine to have a tiny chance at winning a progressive "jackpot" of $51 just isn't fun.

I now walk into a casino just to use the bathroom and eat at the cheap buffet on our RV trips.

 

[Dash man]

I only use limit orders for the day when buying or selling. I only sell for tax loss harvesting and buy when the company's stock fundamentals are sound, but some news or other cause for a swing in the price makes it look like a good time to buy. I set the limit a few cents below the market price at the time and I usually end up buying the stock on the next slight dip during the day. Sometimes it doesn't trigger the buy and I just look for the next opportunity. I typically buy dividend stocks for the long haul. We've already received over $5K this month, with much more to come.