Dow losing almost -1000 Friday .. when will it end? Do we get a V recovery?

F.I.R.E User said:
S&P 500 is what matters right?
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I kinda think it’s my personal portfolio that matters.

The S&P is a decent proxy for the market, but it is only 500 stocks and no international. Still, that’s pretty much what I pay attention to after I look at how my brokerage account did.
 
F.I.R.E User; said:
S&P 500 is what matters right?
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The S&P500 is too heavily weighted in a few stocks. It’s not a good proxy for the market anymore.
 
Jerry1 said:
I kinda think it’s my personal portfolio that matters.

The S&P is a decent proxy for the market, but it is only 500 stocks and no international. Still, that’s pretty much what I pay attention to after I look at how my brokerage account did.
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True but most of us have invested in SP 500.
 
If this last dip shakes you up.....what did you expect ? Forever returns of 20% with no downside potential? This is nothing.

Long term or go home. I am 80% invested in the SP 500 because long term it will beat the heck out of anything I would pick to buy ( I tried and failed). Bonds suck and cash is a good ballast.

Lets all get back to work and let things happen. This is nothing to worry about.
 
Stormy Kromer said:
If this last dip shakes you up.....what did you expect ? Forever returns of 20% with no downside potential? This is nothing.

Long term or go home. I am 80% invested in the SP 500 because long term it will beat the heck out of anything I would pick to buy ( I tried and failed). Bonds suck and cash is a good ballast.

Lets all get back to work and let things happen. This is nothing to worry about.
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Long term is fine if you're in your 30's or 40's. A lot of people here are older than that. The S&P 500 has gone around 18 years before it recovered at one point in the past when factoring in dividend reinvestment and adjusted for inflation. It was like a decade in doing so in more recent history.
 
GenXguy said:
Long term is fine if you're in your 30's or 40's. A lot of people here are older than that. The S&P 500 has gone around 18 years before it recovered at one point in the past when factoring in dividend reinvestment and adjusted for inflation. It was like a decade in doing so in more recent history.
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The Triumph of the Optimists historical and multi-county analysis says that in the long run stocks always do better than bonds, but the long run may be as long as 40 years.

"While a country has only one past, there are many possible futures. The likely rewards from equity investment are worth having over the very long haul. Yet the risk of shortfall is always present, even over lengthy investment horizons. Investors should not assume that favorable equity returns can be guaranteed in the long term; nor should they assume that stocks are safe so long as they are retained for a holding period of at least twenty years." - http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/2781_triumph_of_the_optimists.pdf
 
Montecfo said:
Well I think it would affect it at the rate debt rolls. Not $32T all at once.

And if you notice the long bond is not at a high rate, suggesting the market believes as I do that inflation will be tamed rather quickly.

But if Fed needs to raise rates a lot and quickly to tame inflation, it can.

And if we have learned anything over the past 2 years it is that lack of money to pay interest, while a problem for you and me, is not a major hurdle for government. Unfortunately.
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It seems pretty likely that long bond rates are kept artificially low, but all of various central banks maneuver. The only people helped by higher T-bond rates are savers, and I think the 15-year war on savers that Fed has been waging has pretty much eliminated that group.

I am curious has anyone actually bought individual 10-30 year treasury bond with the intent to hold them to maturity in the last year or so? Or even a long-term Government ETF like TLT?

I honestly don't know anyone who has, nor why anyone would loan Uncle Sam for 30 years at below 3%?

However, it is very obvious why the central banks of US, Japan, most of Europe would benefit by keeping long-term interest rates low.
 
clifp said:
It seems pretty likely that long bond rates are kept artificially low, but all of various central banks maneuver. The only people helped by higher T-bond rates are savers, and I think the 15-year war on savers that Fed has been waging has pretty much eliminated that group.
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Well we know the largest buyer, the Fed, is out of the market now and looking to unwind. Market knows this and rates have moved higher all along the yield curve.

So while I hear that argument, the market knows the Fed will be a net seller and has set rates where they are. You have to give that some weight in my opinion.

I think the market is reflecting that demographically, we are growing at 1-2 percent AND the likelihood of a rate dampening recession has grown.
 
I'm down 11% YTD

When I allow it, this upsets me. I remember - my "high" number in my main stock account last year was 1.7mm. And it dipped to 1.5's-1.6's a few times and each time I said to myself - if it hits 1.7mm again I'm getting totally out. Ended the year at 1.735 mm - -- - and I was so proud of myself for the first time - not panic selling and sticking with it.

Frankly my "core" boring picks - stuff like Coke and Proctor are impressive!! Only when I veered from my discipline - stuff like "Matterport" and a little "Nvidia" did I feel the pain. I admit I did just a bit of market-timing. Sold ALL my Apple at $168. Sold ALL my Amazon at $2600. Sold ALL my Coke at $65.80

Well here I am back in the 1.5's. I did keep about $275K in reserve..........because I have, and continue to believe that paper assets are 50% real, and 50% scam - and trick is to wait for the scam to drop the disguise. I've started to use some of the $275k.....

*$10,000 Verizon 46.35

*$10,000 DVY. 123.40

*$20,000 DISNEY - 120.00 (and it dropped still)


Stuff I'm close on:

Apple if hits $150 -

QQQ if it hits $305

Coke: $62


All of the above are for the purpose of holding - 4 years at least.
 
If it don’t end soon I’m afraid my wife might have a heart attack! I told her to just quit looking every day but no good!
 
aja8888 said:
I just found my old Monopoly game, and it's got all the parts. Can I use that money to buy Bitcoin? :confused:
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I would advise against it. Monopoly is a product that actually has some value (in this case, providing entertainment). Can't say the same for bitcoin. Buying bitcoin using Monopoly money would be a bad use of Monopoly money in my book.
 
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luckydude said:
I would advise against it. Monopoly is a product that actually has some value (in this case, providing entertainment). Can't say the same for bitcoin. Buying bitcoin using Monopoly money would be a bad use of Monopoly money in my book.
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:LOL::LOL:
 
Y’all keep on laughing and I’ll keep on buying limited-supply Bitcoin - and with U.S. dollars, too, which are produced out of thin air in an endless supply. We can check in ten years from now to see who was playing with Monopoly money.
 
Markola said:
Y’all keep on laughing and I’ll keep on buying limited-supply Bitcoin - and with U.S. dollars, too, which are produced out of thin air in an endless supply. We can check in ten years from now to see who was playing with Monopoly money.
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No offense. I wouldn't buy bitcoin with toilet paper but that's just my opinion. To each his own. Good luck and hope it works out for you.
 
luckydude said:
No offense. I wouldn't buy bitcoin with toilet paper but that's just my opinion. To each his own. Good luck and hope it works out for you.
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If inflation keeps up, toilet paper may be worth more than than a dollar.
 
Markola said:
Y’all keep on laughing and I’ll keep on buying limited-supply Bitcoin - and with U.S. dollars, too, which are produced out of thin air in an endless supply. We can check in ten years from now to see who was playing with Monopoly money.
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I see no problem with gambling, its totally legal in many parts of the country.

Investing is totally different than gambling though.

If you're going to buy tulip bulbs, buy them for your enjoyment, not as an investment.
 
pb4uski said:
I see no problem with gambling, its totally legal in many parts of the country.



Investing is totally different than gambling though.



If you're going to buy tulip bulbs, buy them for your enjoyment, not as an investment.
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It’s the small, 3% high-risk component of my portfolio. The mods don’t like us talking about it though at present so, out of respect for the culture here, that’s all I’ll say.
 
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Markola said:
It’s the small, 3% high-risk component of my portfolio. The mods don’t like us talking about it though at present so, out of respect for the culture here, that’s all I’ll say.
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On the first part, that's good and who knows how it would work out... there may always be some greater fool out there. I guess the problem is that anyone reading your previous post wouldn't know the context that it is such a small percent of your total portfolio and might go big into it based on what you wrote. Really their probem, but context is important.

On the second part, I don't think the mods care at all, though I don't think crypto is generally very popular with most members.
 
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Markola said:
The mods don’t like us talking about it though at present so, out of respect for the culture here, that’s all I’ll say.
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I think the crypto mod rule is at Bogleheads, not here. Not 100% sure though.
 
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