For those DIY'ers who invest mostly in individual stocks

I have a couple of rules for individual stock investing, but that said it is 60% of my portfolio. First one, is that I keep any individual stock to 2.5% or less of my portfolio with the only exception being Berkshire. Afraid that one has crept up to 10%.

I use SA to get some ideas and for general humor, but I use Morningstar, Fidelity and Morgan Stanley reports as my primary source of due diligence. I am a buy and hold investor so I rarely buy anything that is not 4 star on morningstar and then i diligently read any updates they issue.
 
I subscribe to the Value Line Survey The basic rules for inclusion as a potential pick for inclusion in my portfolio are:

1) Must be rated in the top 25% of all Value Line stocks for Financial Strength and Safety – So a rating of B+ or better for Financial Strength and 2 or better for Safety.
2) Must pay a dividend with a reliable record of dividend growth
3) Price Stability must be in the top 65% of all companies
4) Earnings Predictability must be in the top 65% of all companies
5) Timeliness of 3 or higher with a strong preference to stocks rated 1 or 2.

This provides me with an ongoing list of stocks I feel are suitable for investment in, from there I research the stocks, the industry, listen to coference calls to get a feel for the aptitude of the company leaders and narrow my list from there, but the stock I purchase are 99% of the time meeting that qualification.

Selling will occur if :
1) Value Line reduces the Financial Strength at all or if Safety falls below 2. A cut in Safety ranking is a strong reason to sell a stock in and of itself but is not automatic. The good thing about Value Line is noone is pressuring them on these ratings and so you have a much quicker look at possible deterioration than will ever happen with a major rating industry.

2) Timeliness rating falls to 4 or lower. This is a good rule that prevents major losses.


3) Dividend is cut or expected increase unexpectedly does not occur.

There are other more subjective guidelines I follow. The reason for most of the rules is to obtain a dividend stock that no matter what the market is doing will be bringing a dividend home that will grow in excess of inflation.

All of the criteria are by using only the Value Line Survey, for myself as I stated reading the most recent Edgar filings and trying to listen to management on a earnings call enlightens one on the soundness of management plans. There is never a shortage of suitable candidates.


As an example WD40, WDFC a midcap stock. This stock has been on my approved list since 2012 when it yielded nearly 3 percent. Since then the dividend has increased 9 percent annually, while the stock price has increased 600%, in the meantime their profit margins have improved smartly, though there are near term concerns with the supply chain issues in the world today. Today the stock yields 1.2%, The timeliness is 2; Safety is a "1" having been increased from a "2", Financial Strength an A, with Price Stability, Growth Persistence, and Earnings Predictability all over 90.

It is a company that is practically free of debt with about one years earnings worth of debt, while still reducing share count by 20 percent over that time through the natural flow of business and not be leverage, leading to a very sound financial company.
 
microcap club. motley fool. simply wall street. industrial and trade mag reading. downloading filings and holdings from edgar for mutual funds/investment shops.

I buy the story and the people for smaller companies. price to sales once they get bigger. I only use PE for mature companies.
 
For years, 90% of my portfolio is passive index investing mutual funds which is designed for a secured retirement. The other 10% are in high risk stocks or derivatives.

In late 2019, I decided to change my entire 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries after the yield curve invested and after we had an historical bull market. Sure enough, I avoided the early 2020 COVID-19 market crash and I started buying equities at bargain prices using my treasuries. Those same equities are now at record levels so I am currently drawing down my equities. Yes, it sounds like market timing because it is. However, you have to understand my mindset: Equities make 10% while treasures make 4% on the average. if the crash did NOT occur, I am behind 6% but still ahead 4%. Since the market did crash, I ended ahead 35% if I had remained passive. In other words it was either +4% or +35% outcome but other investors believed that I was risking 6% of potential equities growth.

My latest investment is VCMDX because I now believe inflation will occur. VCMDX involves commodities and derivatives. I used to invest in individual stocks using broker's recommendations and Morniningstar but I decided to take a "strategic" approach.

VCMDX provides a hedge against inflation while bonds provide a hedge against a bear market but does NOT provide a hedge against inflation. So far, VCMDX is up +46% (1 year performance). My "strategic" approach seems to be working well. This is because everybody is now talking about inflation. When a lot of people believe inflation will occur then it is likely that it will. I am ready to dump my VCMDX in a heartbeat when I see signs that inflation is slowing down significantly based on prices on commodities that I have been tracking.
 
My question to you is; can you provide a brief a synopsis on your methodology for researching and choosing your stocks?

I know this is a loaded question. There can be so much to consider. My question is two-fold. By what resource do you perform your investigation and what aspects of the "fundementals" do you deem most important?

Any resources that you may point me to to help answer my two questions would be greatly appreciated as well.

😀 TSLA 😀

97% of the market is "available" for the change.
 
Investment Resources

There are nearly unlimited metrics to consider when evaluating individual stocks. I tap into several sources that analyze and recommend stocks consistent with my personal investment objectives, then manage my own portfolio the leverages their time/information/skills:

https://www.simplysafedividends.com/
https://seekingalpha.com/author/the-dividend-kings/
https://www.fastgraphs.com/

... and the slew of analysts who professionally follow each stock I select (accessed via my stock brokerage).

Regards,
John T.
 
I use the stock study tools offered by the parent organization for many investment clubs, Better Investing. They help you find consistently growing companies, and estimate what is a fair price. Their magazien discusses what clubs are holding, and their website offers things like weekly stock screens.

https://www.betterinvesting.org/

Over the years I've built up a collection of stocks that might be worth considering. Before I make any purchase, I go old school: I read the most recent 10-K and proxy statement, and listen to the most recent conference call. I do read many of the sources mentioned, mostly for entertainment.
 
I mainly use stockstack.io to find stocks, follow the market, and get news, and then investor relations page/ EDGAR company search to dive deeper.

I used yahoo finance before, but wanted something with less distractions (and no ads!).

Other than that, seeking alpha sometimes (but data can also be fetched from stockstack with api key).
 
My question to you is; can you provide a brief a synopsis on your methodology for researching and choosing your stocks?

I know this is a loaded question. There can be so much to consider. My question is two-fold. By what resource do you perform your investigation and what aspects of the "fundementals" do you deem most important?

Any resources that you may point me to to help answer my two questions would be greatly appreciated as well.
I mostly just dabble nowadays but when I was trading regularly. I used Fidelity's online screening tool to narrow down the list of stocks that meet the conditions I've set for fundamentals and then use Metastock (free version) to analyze the technical aspects of the stock. I also look at their SEC filings.

My approach is based mostly on Seth Klarman's book "Margin of Safety". It's out of print but you may be able to find a copy online.
 
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I'm more into the "hold" part of buy and hold. CAT is my oldest holding, bought October, 1986 at split adjusted $4.78 ($206.74).

I monitor my holdings (about 70 individual stocks) by major S&P industry groups, occasionally add to groups that are underweighted. Quick to sell anything at a loss, or that chronically underperforms. But haven't had to sell as I've had enough cash/income and don't want to pay the taxes on the gains. Frequently use highly appreciated and overweighted areas for charitable giving.

At age 67 I pretty much confine the infrequent new purchases to Dividend Aristocrat type companies.

I use many of the resources listed by others. Used to like Forbes, but it really seems to have gone downhill in the last few years. Barrons is probably my most frequented stock related reading now.
 
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