Gambling on beef prices

Like buying stock in Tyson Foods or Cargill?
 
A cow?

More seriously, the four major beef producers are Tyson, Cargill, National Beef and JBS.
 
So, betting that the wildfires in Texas are going to cripple beef production for quite some time?
 
This seems kind of like gasoline. I knew gasoline was going to go up in price from the $3 low and sure enough it has, but I didn't really know any way to profit off of that. You really can't store enough for long enough to profit off of it.
 
My thought is that the fires would cause prices to go down. I suspect they’ve lost pasture/feed area and they’ll have to dump the herd on the market because they can’t feed them. I guess that’s the nature of the market. One person thinks it going up and the other thinks the price is going down. Only one gets to win.
 
I had a rancher sell calves this last week and got average $3.10 a pound for steer and $3.05 a pound for heifers. Some lighter weights went for 4$ a pound. An 800 pound steer selling for $2480.00. A guy wonders why meat in the store is so high.

Sorry no help with question but prices are sky high for cattle.
 
Are you talking feeder calves, fat cattle, stock cows :confused: Are you talking on the board of trade for this week, next month or the fall of 2025?

Some questions for you. What is the price of cattle today ? What was it last year ? Cow much is feed prices ? How many cattle are on feed ?

I raised cattle, raising them was easy compared to marketing them.

I read somewhere that 90% of the people that "invest" in commodities lose.

Every me I thought I was right, I wasn't. Good luck to you.
 
street said:
I had a rancher sell calves this last week and got average $3.10 a pound for steer and $3.05 a pound for heifers. Some lighter weights went for 4$ a pound. An 800 pound steer selling for $2480.00. A guy wonders why meat in the store is so high.

Sorry no help with question but prices are sky high for cattle.
Click to expand...

Wow! As usual it looks like I'm a little late...
 
Those free range cattle around here are more valuable than I guessed.
Not cheap to transport, or process into burgers and steaks either.

Think I'll keep buying my meat at the local grocery.
 
lawman said:
Wow! As usual it looks like I'm a little late...
Click to expand...
That is on the hoof. The real expenses are yet to come in slaughtering, shipping, marketing etc...

Crazy prices. That ranch sold over 300 calves in the range from 650 to 800 lbs. Nice pay day of ~half million bucks after stock yard expenses taken out!!
 
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Stormy Kromer said:
Are you talking feeder calves, fat cattle, stock cows :confused: Are you talking on the board of trade for this week, next month or the fall of 2025?

Some questions for you. What is the price of cattle today ? What was it last year ? Cow much is feed prices ? How many cattle are on feed ?

I raised cattle, raising them was easy compared to marketing them.

I read somewhere that 90% of the people that "invest" in commodities lose.

Every me I thought I was right, I wasn't. Good luck to you.
Click to expand...

Come on stormy don't be so negative.....but the answer to the original question is ,there isn't
 
Stormy Kromer said:
Sorry, I lost money raising cattle, I was trying to help a friend from betting on commodities.
Click to expand...

I too lost money raising cattle..Made money raising St. Croix hair sheep.. From what I've learned about commodities I think that is good advice...Thanks
 
lawman said:
I too lost money raising cattle..Made money raising St. Croix hair sheep.. From what I've learned about commodities I think that is good advice...Thanks
Click to expand...

There is a lot of expenses to cattle ranching. If you have all the hay ground and pastureland and don't have to buy or rent and do everything yourself, it makes it a lot easier.

No buying new fix and work on all equipment etc. helps the bottom line.
 
IMO, investing in commodities is not for 99.9% of us, including me.

I know of one person who made significant money in commodities. He was one of the smartest most disciplined men I ever worked for. In 6 months of trading he made enough money to quite work for a nearly two years and go back to school for his MBA. I asked him why he stopped trading commodities if he did so well. The answer was simple, “ I wanted to stay healthy and live past 50”. IOW, he was a nervous wreck during that 6 months. The stressful lifestyle was not sustainable at many levels including his personal health and the health of his family life.

For those who do well trading commodities, all I can say is you are my better.
 
Last edited:
street said:
I had a rancher sell calves this last week and got average $3.10 a pound for steer and $3.05 a pound for heifers. Some lighter weights went for 4$ a pound. An 800 pound steer selling for $2480.00. A guy wonders why meat in the store is so high.

Sorry no help with question but prices are sky high for cattle.
Click to expand...

The current price difference between beef and other meats like pork and chicken is amazing.
 
Jerry1 said:
My thought is that the fires would cause prices to go down. I suspect they’ve lost pasture/feed area and they’ll have to dump the herd on the market because they can’t feed them. I guess that’s the nature of the market. One person thinks it going up and the other thinks the price is going down. Only one gets to win.
Click to expand...

Our friends who have family with cattle farms in the wildfire area said their cattle survived but their pasture/feed areas were burnt out. They are not dumping the cattle on the market, but paying to bring in hay and feed for them. That probably will reflect in them trying to get higher prices for the cattle to cover the extra expense. Only the market will tell what happens.
 
street said:
There is a lot of expenses to cattle ranching. If you have all the hay ground and pastureland and don't have to buy or rent and do everything yourself, it makes it a lot easier.

No buying new fix and work on all equipment etc. helps the bottom line.
Click to expand...

We have free range cattle around here. Sometimes even on the back roads. I'll guess this is a relatively cheap way to raise them. Let them wander free and eat grass on the hillsides. :)
 
street said:
I had a rancher sell calves this last week and got average $3.10 a pound for steer and $3.05 a pound for heifers. Some lighter weights went for 4$ a pound. An 800 pound steer selling for $2480.00. A guy wonders why meat in the store is so high.

Sorry no help with question but prices are sky high for cattle.
Click to expand...

old medic said:
Yes, the wife did..... Got several T-bones and Sirloins for $2 a lb.
Click to expand...

Considering a live steer/heifer is (guess here) about 1/2 meat and the rest is bone/guts/etc..
It's amazing I can buy beef for less than $6 lb.
 
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