The difference between chair failure and unanticipated events in the market is two-fold: 1) you don't fall very far when a chair fails, and 2) there is no mechanism to get paid large quantities of money when a chair fails.
The arguments about whether somebody had prior knowledge and determinism aren't as interesting to me as whether or not the payouts on the bets are truly asymmetric to the costs and how those payouts are captured.
First, I don't agree with your two points in the first paragraph: 1) "you don't fall very far . . . " (Remember, I always look for th extremes of possibilities first--not at the middle ground first, which is the most likely event area.) If I had osteoporosis (brittle hips) and sat down 'without consideration' in that chair, it is very possible that falling a short distance could crush my hip, put me in a rest home, and I would wither away and die a short time later. This would be a black swan event--to my mind--and body too
. Possible but not likely, given all the circumstances mentioned all occurring in proper sequence. All I'm saying here is that distance to the ground is absolute, but risk to the experiencer is relative, that for an old man an eighteen inch fall could be very serious. For a middle age one, not worthy of any consideration. (Risk is assigned to events by humans and in a relative way, dependent upon what they know about an event or its possibility and what they know about the environment.)
2) "no mechanism to get paid large quantities of money" Again, not absolutely true, although significantly different than you may have been thinking. Do you remember many years ago they often sold little insurance policies that paid off if, for instance, you lost a finger or hand or arm or eye, etc? Depending on what was lost, you could collect a predetermined amount for each part or combination of parts. Anyway, the possibility exists that some similar type of odd or mundane events have certainly been insured in the past and will be in the future--and that such possibilities exist for the potential chair sitter. But again not likely. But . . . we all have medical insurance that covers expenses, and may be forced to pay out huge sums to hospitals or rest homes. Sometimes enormous sums jump over our heads and into the pockets of others. We may not pocket the money, but we are definitely the beneficiaries, Large quantities of money are at our beck and call if events warrant it. In addition, we may have home owners insurance that might cover a guest that falls off one of our chairs. We have all these risks covered ourselves already or have products available to cover such risks, white swan or black swan induced.
Enough said on that paragraph.
In your second paragraph, you identified exactly where your interests lie. You said " . . . are the payouts truly asymmetric to the costs and how those payouts are captured." That really is the question that I'm investigating also. George Soros made a whopping huge amount of money on the British pound in the 1980s (?). He bet against it holding its value and was so confident in it happening that he leveraged up--way up. Jackpot for him and his friends. A negative black swan occurred that made the rest of his life very easy. But, again it always comes down to knowing things beforehand, finding that asymmetrical event, and then acting on it with enough confidence. He did it with consciousness and his mind first and with the data he gathered. He then put it all together in a specific, reality based way. As far as I am aware, he and friends were the only ones to know about this beforehand. This non-knowing by others creates much of this asymmetic risk skew in such situations. Knowledge is incredibly powerful.
I don't want to get all Buddisty here . . . so I won't.
But in response to your implied second paragraph question: in order to get that prior knowledge yourself, you need to know the mechanics of how it happens in others and where they go to find it so that this information can be applied to your own . . . um . . . quest
(as I see things). It's now mine too.
I need to take a break from this stuff and read Taleb. and a few other things. Thank you. This is turning into a wonderful process for me. PM me if you want.