Happy dreams ... and yours?

[Lsbcal]

With all the negativity I am trying to think more positively for next year. I am reminded that the markets have a history of doing quite well in the 3rd year of a presidential term. The stats since 1933:

Year after the election: +6.7%
Second-year: +5.8%
Third-year: +16.3%
Fourth-year: +6.7%

Discussion of this is here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/presidentialelectioncycle.asp

The election cycle theory is predicated on the view that a shift in presidential priorities is a primary influence on the stock market.

The theory suggests that markets perform best in the second half of a presidential term when the sitting president tries to boost the economy to get re-elected.

Data from the past several decades seem to support the idea of a stock surge during the second half of an election cycle, although the limited sample size makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions.

So go ahead and add your happy thoughts to this thread.

 

[38Chevy454]

Divided control in congress means stalemate, which is generally considered positive by Wall St. That's what we will have for year 3 and 4. The big variable is inflation and when that will stop being so detrimental to the economy. Hopefully it reduces some.

 

[W2R]

With all the negativity I am trying to think more positively for next year. I am reminded that the markets have a history of doing quite well in the 3rd year of a presidential term. [...]
So go ahead and add your happy thoughts to this thread.

OK! Good topic.

Something that makes me very happy, is knowing that happiness is not linearly related to income or available spending money. In other words, if I had twice as much spending money, would I be twice as happy? I mean, really, get real!!! Lots of free time makes me happier than lots of BTD purchases. You too, if you really think hard about it.

So, if you can't afford to go on that trip-of-a-lifetime this year, just think about the extra free time you will have instead! So little time, so much fun to be had.... At least that's the way I look at it. "The best things in life are free", as the saying goes.

I'm having fun spending time with Frank, and playing not only my usual video game but also another one I bought for $16.

And then, I'm curious about the Idaho student murders, reading news releases about them and trying to keep up to date about what happened. Those poor families and friends of the victims! It's interesting to read about the forensics involved and how investigators have approached this real life mystery.

My dear Daughter (who lives in Oregon) is using her extra time to learn Spanish! That's something I always wanted to do, but haven't. How can we live in a country with so many Spanish speaking people, and yet not know the language? That's crazy. So, maybe I'll put that on my list of free things to do.

 

[Lsbcal]

Yes, time is running down for all of us.

I don't have to worry about the cost of exotic travel because it's become much more difficult post-Covid. Spent Saturday in the ER with DW who came down with some bug.

A reminder to enjoy life. There are so many things to learn about and people to enjoy it with.

For me $'s = security. More will not open up the world any further. I enjoy trying to get more without working too hard at it.

 

[GravitySucks]

I try to take a bit of a longer view.
Jan 1 2020 S&P was around 3225.
I consider what the Government and the Fed did from then to Jan 1 2022 artificially goosed the markets to help keep civilization from collapsing and now, even after the Bull ran through, the S&P is higher than end of 2019 including inflation.
I thought I was in good shape 1/1/2020 so I see no reason to fret now. Take a slightly longer view. Ididnt buy any stocks when S&P was over 4000, why do I feel I lost money from that point?

Wish I sold on the bump, wish I moved from bond funds to bonds. Guess I got greedy. Shoulda, woulda, coulda. Still got more than I started with.

 

[COcheesehead]

I heard awhile back if you don’t like your returns this year, widen your view. So when I look back to my retirement date of July ‘20 or back further to January 2020. I am ahead even with taking out 2.5 years of expenses. That makes me feel good. I planned for bad things to happen and they did, but the SORR monster hasn’t eaten me yet. I did not have to delay my retirement. We built a house, travel, enjoy life. This year is all about taking advantage of something many of us wished for - better fixed income yields. Lock ‘em in.

 

[Kabowest]

In year four of retirement and I still have more than I started with. Is more better, sure, but I still have more than I need. I'll be a grandfather for the first time in 2023, so big positive there in my world!

 

[aja8888]

Thoughts about next year are kind of cloudy for us.

We are both in our late 70's and are worrying more about health issues than the stock market casino. I have moved a high percentage of our IRA portfolio into fixed income and now have enough interest and dividends coming in to cover our RMDs without depleting the principal.

The brokerage account is a mix of municipal bonds, CDs, one MLP, and cash (SWVXX). We kind of live off this and a healthy SS amount. No changes planned here.

I am still doing ROTH conversions, although a bit less than years ago.

DW is in month two of not being at home due to a serious lung infection. She should be released by 12/28 from skilled nursing. After suffering from COPD for 7 years now, I suspect she is entering "end stage COPD", which is not good news.

Travel for fun and "experiences" is no longer easy to do so we are now officially home bodies.

I'm lucky as I am a healthy 79 and can take care of DW, to an extent. Next year will be a new experience at home.

I am looking forward to a 7% 10 year treasury bond and I will back up the truck and fill it. I'm dreaming, of course!

 

[foxfirev5]

In year four of retirement and I still have more than I started with. Is more better, sure, but I still have more than I need. I'll be a grandfather for the first time in 2023, so big positive there in my world!

That's the important stuff. Congrats and enjoy the new GK

 

[daylatedollarshort]

DW is in month two of not being at home due to a serious lung infection. She should be released by 12/28 from skilled nursing. After suffering from COPD for 7 years now, I suspect she is entering "end stage COPD", which is not good news.

Travel for fun and "experiences" is no longer easy to do so we are now officially home bodies.

Sorry to hear that and I hope her prognosis ends up better than expected.

 

[street]

In year four of retirement and I still have more than I started with. Is more better, sure, but I still have more than I need. I'll be a grandfather for the first time in 2023, so big positive there in my world!

That is awesome and congratulations!! I'm a step grandfather for one beautiful little girl now. I also will be a first time GF for a baby girl in February. It will be a great year whatever the market does. I think less and less about money an more about living life than I ever have.

 

[aja8888]

In year four of retirement and I still have more than I started with. Is more better, sure, but I still have more than I need. I'll be a grandfather for the first time in 2023, so big positive there in my world!

Somehow I missed that you will be a first time grandfather! Congrats!

 

[jollystomper]

In year four of retirement and I still have more than I started with. Is more better, sure, but I still have more than I need. I'll be a grandfather for the first time in 2023, so big positive there in my world!

Congrats on becoming a grandfather soon!

I agree about the long term. Since retiring in 2018 and living the lifestyle we want, we still have noticeably more. Even at the worst of the pandemic we were just down %5 from my retirement level. The only ones who would be "unhappy" are our heirs, but they don't know so their ignorance is our bliss .

 

[bbbamI]

I like happy thoughts. Sometimes they are hard to come by and I have to remind myself we are very fortunate. We have everything we need and most of what we want. Material things are less important; we could spend much more, but the desire is not there.

Regardless of what life throws at us, thank heavens we're FIRE'd and don't have to w*rk. That thought alone allows us to sleep good every night.

 

[RobbieB]

Went out to the boat today to finish up the forward auto bilge.

Saw a Sea Lion fishing at the marina even before I got to the boat. Water dogs make me happy -

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I have a lot of TIPS which will never make us super rich but make enough to avoid pushing a shopping cart under the bridge. The TIPS, along with SS and pensions, more than cover all our expenses. While I try to optimize the rest, I don't worry if the nominal bonds aren't keeping up with inflation or the stocks have gone down. We're more concerned about staying healthy in our old age these days.

Like W2R, we're cheap dates so it doesn't take much to make us happy. Not having to work, not having to worry about money, being close with our kids, still being able to hike (slowly these days), belonging to a few clubs for social activities and enjoying the local parks, museums, theater groups, breweries, etc. is really enough to keep us happy.

 

[mattbaxx]

I have my happy dreams, and boy do I need them.

What weighs me down: my needy mother entering year 3 in (undesired by her) assisted living; entering year 2 of being too involved in my father's widow's finances; my parents-in-laws moved into our house in August.

Happy dreams: One wonderful wife of 37 years; three delightful children and two terrific sons-in-law; DD#1 delivered our first grandchild 13 days ago, and DD#2 brings us the second in April. Beautiful spots in an overall excellent (but challenging) life.

 

[kgtest]

I took the opportunity to put more $$ into the market this year then I ever have before. When people sell, I buy. I was happy about being able to accomplish so much by maxing DW 403b, My Solo 401k, DW Roth, My Solo Roth 401k, My Roth, and now looking to pull the trigger on a mega backdoor roth (conversion). I learned a lot about investing and even more about taxes for corporations this year. I didn't realize just how favorable the tax code is to S-corporations. I almost feel like I am cheating.

Also maxed HSA, and made some contributions to all 3 kids 529s and our brokerage accnt.

 

[skyking1]

My wife and I did well on our 12 day drive across the country, and that led to dreams of more road trips to come.

 

[Kabowest]

[/B]

.. I think less and less about money and more about living life than I ever have.

It has taken me a few years to reach that way of thinking, but I'm finally there!

Congrats to you too!

 

[Lsbcal]

Watched Cramer this AM. He is starting to believe in a soft landing. McCulley who has a good reputation as an economist I think is also talking soft landing. So that May low in equities of -25% could have been the bottom if they are right.

Cramer for entertaining comic remarks:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/jim-cramer-says-the-economy-is-stabilizing-and-can-avoid-a-recession.html

 

[Koolau]

[/B]

That is awesome and congratulations!! I'm a step grandfather for one beautiful little girl now. I also will be a first time GF for a baby girl in February. It will be a great year whatever the market does. I think less and less about money an more about living life than I ever have.

I agree about money becoming less and less important.

We actually got to spend a good deal of time with our 3 yo grand daughter this summer. Precious time indeed. Looking forward to next summer already. We have several grand sons but we rarely get to spend much time with them and haven't gotten to know them very well.

 

[pacergal]

spending time with family is always my Happy spot.

 

[Lsbcal]

I'm reposting this here from another thread:

I like to look for data patterns. Could history repeat itself? The year 1994 was a well known bad bond market year. But stocks took off at the beginning of 1995 and the 3 month Treasury rise had flattened out. The Fed Funds rate tended to flatten out in early 1995.

Of course the reasons were probably quite different. No pandemic or Russian invasion or bursting inflation. Here is a writeup on the 1994 bond market: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_bond_market_crisis

Chart with the right axis showing Tbills and the left SP500, short term investment grade (VFSTX) and total bond market (VBMFX).

Could be 2023 will be a great year.