How is this NOT a US Stock bubble??

[GenXguy]

According to this WSJ article, the index was down 20% using intraday levels in Oct 2011:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/calling-bull-on-the-longest-bull-market-1534940689

Calling Bull on the Longest Bull Market

"The S&P 500 itself fell 19.4% from its postcrisis closing high to the closing low of October 2011, although even here we can split hairs. Use intraday highs and lows and the index was down 21.6%, for a new bear market. Certainly to many investors it felt like a renewed panic, and nothing like a bull market.

Whether today marks a record is open to doubt either way. Based on closing prices, there was no bear market from 1987 until 2000 in the S&P 500, making that by far the longest bull run. Based on intraday prices, there were bear markets in 1990 and 1998, but that run was still longer than the run since 2011."​

 

[OldShooter]

And this bull/bear stuff is important because ... ?

 

[pb4uski]

mystery to me!

 

[John0019]

Sorry mentioned it as a side note in post #99 about not believing all this 11 year bull run hoopla (i.e. in general people believing just because of this supposedly longevity meaning time to go down)...maybe should have started a new thread. New to posting here so I'll ask for forgiveness.

 

[OldShooter]

Sorry mentioned it as a side note in post #99 about not believing all this 11 year bull run hoopla (i.e. in general people believing just because of this supposedly longevity meaning time to go down)...maybe should have started a new thread. New to posting here so I'll ask for forgiveness.

No criticism of anyone's post intended. It just struck me that people seemed to be getting pretty intense about this.

The bull sculpture on Wall Street is quite attractive, but all of the bull/bear discussion makes no sense to me. Maybe it is a mild attempt at market timing. Or maybe the pundits and newsletter sellers get people whipped up about it so they can maintain an audience.

Mr. Market will do what Mr. Market decides to do. No one has ever figured out how to predict this and no one ever will. Bull, bear, CAPE, ouija, P/E, astrology, ... Pretty much all have shown the same predictive value.

 

[Dtail]

Well let's look at it this way.
If the drop in Dec 2018 was let's say 21% and lasted 3 months, would we be speaking of the start of a new bull market and thus the continued bear market fearfulness would dissipate somewhat and folks would feel more comfortable with the current higher stock valuations.

 

[John0019]

No criticism of anyone's post intended. It just struck me that people seemed to be getting pretty intense about this.

The bull sculpture on Wall Street is quite attractive, but all of the bull/bear discussion makes no sense to me. Maybe it is a mild attempt at market timing. Or maybe the pundits and newsletter sellers get people whipped up about it so they can maintain an audience.

Mr. Market will do what Mr. Market decides to do. No one has ever figured out how to predict this and no one ever will. Bull, bear, CAPE, ouija, P/E, astrology, ... Pretty much all have shown the same predictive value.

+1

Agreed. Btw, I prefer to keep much simpler...coin flip.

 

[Digger1000]

Since Sept 1,2018 the S&P is up 16%. So in 17 1/2 months the S&P has gained 16%.

 

[leftyfrizzell1963]

Apple just posted an announcement that earnings will be lower due to the CV. Could this be the start of a major downturn tomorrow morning?

Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays, weak demand in China because of coronavirus - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/app...ne-supply-and-suppressed-demand-in-china.html

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Apple just posted an announcement that earnings will be lower due to the CV. Could this be the start of a major downturn tomorrow morning?

Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays, weak demand in China because of coronavirus - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/app...ne-supply-and-suppressed-demand-in-china.html

Dow futures down about 100 points (as of the time I'm typing this). S&P 500 futures down 13 points. Yawn.

As someone who's been selling the recent rallies, I keep getting whacked in terms of how much the market is ignoring the virus impacts and other deteriorating indicators. Perhaps it is as simple as "don't fight the fed" where in this case it is every central bank in the world.

 

[NW-Bound]

It is indeed hard to tell what is a bubble or not.

It is not a bubble if the masses keep buying and bidding the market up, P/E ratio be damned.

When they suddenly all head for the exit door, trampling each other on the way out, then it is a bubble.

The masses always rule. You cannot argue with the majority.

 

[Fermion]

Apple just posted an announcement that earnings will be lower due to the CV. Could this be the start of a major downturn tomorrow morning?

Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays, weak demand in China because of coronavirus - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/app...ne-supply-and-suppressed-demand-in-china.html

I doubt it. This market only goes up. I imagine we don't turn the corner until DOW 30,000 maybe even 40,000.

 

[LRDave]

I doubt it. This market only goes up. I imagine we don't turn the corner until DOW 30,000 maybe even 40,000.

=/= Whee(?)

 

[audreyh1]

Apple just posted an announcement that earnings will be lower due to the CV. Could this be the start of a major downturn tomorrow morning?

Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays, weak demand in China because of coronavirus - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/app...ne-supply-and-suppressed-demand-in-china.html

Yeah the new AirPods Pro are not available until March 17! Seems like that could extend.....

 

[OldShooter]

In a year or two all this virus stuff will have been forgotten. In Apple's case, most of the "lost" sales have simply been shifted forward a month or more. All of this is simply noise that entertains the traders as they play their zero-sum games.

 

[NW-Bound]

Stock futures drop after Apple's warning came out.

I find it strange that the market did not anticipate that Apple would have immediate financial hiccup in the next quarter.

Honhai/Foxconn has had trouble restarting the two factories where it builds Apple products. I knew about this, and I am not even an Apple shareholder.

 

[kgtest]

Stock futures drop after Apple's warning came out.

I find it strange that the market did not anticipate that Apple would have immediate financial hiccup in the next quarter.

Honhai/Foxconn has had trouble restarting the two factories where it builds Apple products. I knew about this, and I am not even an Apple shareholder.

I am a shareholder. Foxconn also had problems with its screen manufacturers not keeping up with demand, which to me was a bigger worry...but they still charged ahead with earnings...eventually.

 

[RobbieB]

It's not a bubble until it pops!

 

[NW-Bound]

And it does not pop until people start selling.

Don't anyone sell now!

 

[NW-Bound]

Regarding HonHai/Foxconn factories that make iPhones, it was reported last week that one factory restarted with 16,000 employees, and the 2nd one with 20,000 employees.

What's impressive was that the above numbers are only 10% of the normal work force. These factories have 200,000 employees each!

And it was said further that these employees were mostly people who chose to spend the New Year holiday in the company dormitories instead of going home as is the custom.

And so, the re-integration of returning employees is tricky if you care to not infect the few healthy employees you currently have.

 

[RobbieB]

Ewww, who wants a virus phone?

 

[NW-Bound]

There ya go!

Between decline of supply and lack of demand, would anyone wonder why Apple's earnings will not take a hit?

But why is this talk here in the bubble debate thread, instead of in the thread about the market impact of the virus?

 

[Running_Man]

As long as the Federal Reserve continues to halve the long term treasury rate every decade stock prices will maintain, though I think the impact is less over time. What would the market do if long term US treasury interest rates doubled every decade for the next 40 years next? Bicycling is easy with a 20 mile an hour wind to your back.

 

[audreyh1]

There ya go!

Between decline of supply and lack of demand, would anyone wonder why Apple's earnings will not take a hit?

Funny - futures are negative, but pre-market trading on Apple is not. Maybe Apple would have been above $350 by now if not for the Coronavirus and earnings hit already baked in.

Who knows.

Edited to add - now it’s down big pre-market!

 

[kgtest]

Funny - futures are negative, but pre-market trading on Apple is not. Maybe Apple would have been above $350 by now if not for the Coronavirus and earnings hit already baked in.

Who knows.

Edited to add - now it’s down big pre-market!

Something strange I've noticed the past year or so. MOST days Pre-market opens down...we always eek it out in the green. I don't exactly track this but it seems like that is the case lately. I never use pre-market as a leading indicator of how the day will end because of that observation. Also, I never time the market so there is that.