Should I Sell?

[jollystomper]

We are ready to sell and move pass Tesla.

Sell and use the loss for TLH against other gains.

You can always get back into the stock beyond the wash sale period,, if you think it may do better over the next 10+ years.

 

[Dash man]

My most successful individual stocks are companies I purchased years ago. LLY is my biggest percentage gainer. COR (formerly ABC) made us the most money. MSFT outperformed after not doing much for years. AVGO was a pick my wife heard about at work we checked out. Diversifying from COR made us very successful and able to retire early. None of these were high flying stocks in the news daily for any reason at the time we bought them. Just solid companies with strong fundamentals that continue to grow and pay dividends today. We have another dozen solid stocks that pay good dividends and grow.
Look for solid companies that will be around for a long time.

 

[m3bs]

I believe EVs will have a place in the market, but won’t be the entire market. Post 14 sums up my thoughts. I would have sold before now. EVs have already become commodities, not worthy of premium valuation just because they are EVs.

I think Tesla will remain a significant player in that market, but that over time the valuation will approach that of the legacy car makers. One thing to consider is that none of those manufacturers have figured out how to sell EVs at a profit, so Tesla still has a competitive advantage. Even if the legacy makers fail completely with EVs, China will be ready and willing to fill the void. BYD is already putting the squeeze on Tesla in their home market, and it’s only a matter of time before they break into the US market.

Now, if I could only figure out what to do with my NVDA…..it’s been a heck of a ride!

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Assuming you had never bought any Tesla in the past, if you looked at it today do you think you would be tempted to buy at this price? I've always looked at this as the key factor. Sunk cost is irrelevant.

THIS.

While I'm less than perfect at this, this technique is fundamental to investing. One should look at their holdings, and ask "If I didn't own it, would I buy it?" If the answer is yes, keep it (and maybe add). If the answer is no, consider strongly selling it.

If a stock had a fundamental reason you bought it, and that thesis remains true, then stick with it...but with eyes wide open as to how your thesis might be WRONG.

However, even with the above we need to be careful to separate our emotions regarding an investment, or who is leading it, or if they have said or done something we agree/disagree with outside the realm of that business. It fogs our decision making, and making emotional decisions on stocks is a good way to lose money.

Disclaimer: I've traded TSLA a few times over the last couple years, and sold 2/3's of my relatively small position on the earnings announcement (but before it fell through the floor). What I sold was at a profit. What remains is at a loss (about 12%). The stock is too speculative (for me) to have a large holding even if I thought TSLA was going to rule the world. I think as of now EV's are running into a strong headwind, and that will hurt the stock for "a while". If it sells down to the low 100's (where I bought it the first time), I will assess.

 

[target2019]

"Elon Musk has made bad choices and has done his best to ruin this company."

You're down almost $12,000.

Tax loss harvest to your advantage? Read balance sheets?

 

[street]

I personally wouldn't sell. Hang on if you don't need the money, I would believe stocks will increase per share down the road.

 

[Chuckanut]

Here is the thing to remember about analysts: An analyst who could make accurate predictions would not be an analyst. They would be lounging beside the pool on their megayacht, sipping from a drink decorated with an orchid, and making a trade once in a while when the checkbook got low. There are really only two kinds of analysts: those who have tried and failed to live on their successful predictions and those who are afraid to try.

But ... there are so many analysts and so many opinions over the spectrum that there will always be those who turn out to be right. Those will be considered the genius analysts. Temporarily.

IIRC, many analysts predicted Tesla would go belly up by the end of 2019. Short sellers were having a field day. Tesla would go bankrupt or be taken over for pennies on the dollar by an established automotive company. There is a lesson buried in that story.

 

[marinauser]

Not sure why anyone thinks that you can tax loss harvest in a 401k rollover. That money will all be taxed as ordinary income as you withdraw. Selling the stock just means that you have less money to withdraw eventually. The real question for me is what percentage of the OP's overall assets is the Tesla? If 2% I would probably hold it. If more than 5%, I would probably sell and learn a lesson - no more individual stocks recommended by "advisors". If the OP just is not interested in really learning about investing and managing their money, then I would probably agree that they should just move to a simple fund/EFT allocation or a target date fund from Schwab.

 

[marinauser]

I am not sure why anyone is talking about tax loss harvesting in a 401k rollover - IRA? Selling at a loss in a rollover account is simply to avoid further losses. All of those assets are taxed as ordinary income as they are withdrawn. If the Tesla stock is less than 2% of OP's assets, I would probably just hold on. If more, I would probably get out of it just because it doesn't sound like the OP is comfortable with the stock. I wouldn't be in individual stocks and I would not be looking for advise. The OP may be better just adopting a target date fund in the retirement/drawdown phase or a simple 3 or 4 fund/ETF portfolio.

 

[Texas Proud]

I’ll be devil’s advocate and give a reason to hold, or even buy more.

Tesla has built a global manufacturing infrastructure and continues to expand. While the US and European traditional auto makers are struggling to design and manufacture competitive EVs in volume, Tesla has achieved that and effectively has the top share of heart and share of mind. The Tesla charging design has already become the standard in the US.

Elon Musk has indicated Tesla is committed to being the industry leader in auto related AI. This is no easy task and may be just bluster, but if they achieve that they may become a much more valuable enterprise.

I’m not interested in a debate, just want to post a different point of view.

An interesting take on the stock... but Musk has threatened to start up another company for his AI dreams...



I would put the possibility of an AI bonanza on the same level as a biotech that is looking to cure some kind of cancer... you might get lucky or you might go bust...

 

[jollystomper]

Sell and use the loss for TLH against other gains.

You can always get back into the stock beyond the wash sale period,, if you think it may do better over the next 10+ years.

Not sure why anyone thinks that you can tax loss harvest in a 401k rollover. That money will all be taxed as ordinary income as you withdraw. Selling the stock just means that you have less money to withdraw eventually. The real question for me is what percentage of the OP's overall assets is the Tesla? If 2% I would probably hold it. If more than 5%, I would probably sell and learn a lesson - no more individual stocks recommended by "advisors". If the OP just is not interested in really learning about investing and managing their money, then I would probably agree that they should just move to a simple fund/EFT allocation or a target date fund from Schwab.

I am not sure why anyone is talking about tax loss harvesting in a 401k rollover - IRA? Selling at a loss in a rollover account is simply to avoid further losses. All of those assets are taxed as ordinary income as they are withdrawn. If the Tesla stock is less than 2% of OP's assets, I would probably just hold on. If more, I would probably get out of it just because it doesn't sound like the OP is comfortable with the stock. I wouldn't be in individual stocks and I would not be looking for advise. The OP may be better just adopting a target date fund in the retirement/drawdown phase or a simple 3 or 4 fund/ETF portfolio.

My fault. That is what I get for posting while NFL games are on my mind. You are correct.

I would sell, as the Op stated they were uncomfortable, and I view a 401K as a long term vehicle and prefer index funds in them, less risk than trying to pick stocks in my view.

 

[target2019]

Not sure why anyone thinks that you can tax loss harvest in a 401k rollover. That money will all be taxed as ordinary income as you withdraw. Selling the stock just means that you have less money to withdraw eventually. The real question for me is what percentage of the OP's overall assets is the Tesla? If 2% I would probably hold it. If more than 5%, I would probably sell and learn a lesson - no more individual stocks recommended by "advisors". If the OP just is not interested in really learning about investing and managing their money, then I would probably agree that they should just move to a simple fund/EFT allocation or a target date fund from Schwab.

I am not sure why anyone is talking about tax loss harvesting in a 401k rollover - IRA? Selling at a loss in a rollover account is simply to avoid further losses. All of those assets are taxed as ordinary income as they are withdrawn. If the Tesla stock is less than 2% of OP's assets, I would probably just hold on. If more, I would probably get out of it just because it doesn't sound like the OP is comfortable with the stock. I wouldn't be in individual stocks and I would not be looking for advise. The OP may be better just adopting a target date fund in the retirement/drawdown phase or a simple 3 or 4 fund/ETF portfolio.

Yeah some of us are not as astute as we used to be.

A loss in any account is still a loss when you sell. We don't know the total portfolio balance, so it's impossible to make a complete analysis of TSLA stock impact.

Everyone has had a similar experience with a holding. After all, nothing goes up forever.

I'm still thinking of MichaelB's recommendation. Only time will tell. Tesla could end up sacking EM and soaring to new heights.

Oh well. Another day, another pill.

 

[Montecfo]

Does anyone remember the young dude who had $2m net worth and $1.8 of it was Tesla? I seem to recall suggesting he diversify. He was against doing so. He has been quiet for a while.

I think Tesla is a transformative company but in an industry built on government largesse and which is hoping to grow based on government coercion. I doubt that will end well.

To love Tesla you had to believe it was going to transform battery tech. This has not happened so some of the air has come out of the balloon. And people are beginning to realize the early adopters have already bought one and EVs are a tough sell for average drivers.

Unless it seems like a "buy" here then you should probably follow your instincts and sell.

I do not and have not owned this stock except possibly via mutual fund exposure.

 

[CRLLS]

A lot of comments above seem to be driven by Musk's persona, one way or another. What would the future of Tesla be if Elon were to die tomorrow. Would the company continue on their current path, fall to pieces or thrive like nothing before? Decide if you are investing in a person or a company and make a decision one way or another. By holding TSLA you are virtually selling it today and then rebuying it today because you think it will grow from today's price. You may be right, or you may be wrong. Time will tell.

I am not invested in TSLA stock directly. I do own TSLA in the sense that I hold SP500. TSLA is currently #10 in the SP500 holdings. If it were me, I would sell TSLA and reinvest in SP500. I do not hold individual stocks. I learned many years ago that I cannot match the SP500 over the long haul. YMMV

 

[aja8888]

Does anyone remember the young dude who had $2m net worth and $1.8 of it was Tesla? I seem to recall suggesting he diversify. He was against doing so. He has been quiet for a while.

I think Tesla is a transformative company but in an industry built on government largesse and which is hoping to grow based on government coercion. I doubt that will end well.

To love Tesla you had to believe it was going to transform battery tech. This has not happened so some of the air has come out of the balloon. And people are beginning to realize the early adopters have already bought one and EVs are a tough sell for average drivers.

Unless it seems like a "buy" here then you should probably follow your instincts and sell.

I do not and have not owned this stock except possibly via mutual fund exposure.

Excellent post and a key point not mentioned too often is that the key to EV success long term is battery technology. Currently, the tech has been all lithium based configurations and range for these vehicles is governed by the battery size and weight and efficiency of the mass (car) moving forward. So, in essence, EV's (in general) range roughly 300 miles on really good days....all of them.

Just pounding out cars with a 300 mile range will not be the success story. What will make headlines will be advanced battery tech where energy density is increased significantly and weight is reduced. It seems like scads of companies are "working" on advanced battery technology, but success stories are not heard about.

 

[Cortina]

I did not read the detail of every reply , but I would not do anything with ALL of them . Why not take it in chunks (bits) ? - of either 50% OR 25% ... and sell those . Revisit in say a years time or whatever , and review what has happened .. then take another action. Down the road , you may find yourself wanting to buy them back again ?
Whatever it is - you can't see the future , so it's a "gamble" either way. Clearly the man who buys the shares you sell - thinks he is making a smart move ... you can't both be right !!

 

[Slater]

up 4.19% today, up 14.56% for the year, up 817% last 5 years....
your comment about who recommended the stock to you, sounds like advise from a random acquaintance / friend & not an actual financial adviser?

 

[JT90505]

Do you trust Elon Musk

I'm kind of confused by most of the replies you have received. For context, I hold no individual stocks and have overwhelmingly invested in very low cost index funds.

The confusion stems from my understanding that Tesla is *not* valued as an EV company, and the future of EV's has a relatively small impact on Tesla's stock price. It is valued as a robotics/AI company, and current price movement *may* be due to a power play by Mr. Musk to gain more voting control of the company with an implied threat of shifting his robotics interests to one of his many other companies. Of course, this could be totally wrong, which is why I don't gamble on individual stocks.

Tesla AI day 2022 quote from Mr. Musk: “Tesla is not a car company.”.

 

[Slater]

correct....

 

[Chuckanut]

Short sellers tried to talk down Tesla in 2019. Despite the predictions of many about Teslas’s imminent demise, it survived. Maybe that’s happening again? I don’t know.

 

[OldShooter]

A good company is not necessarily a good investment. You have to consider the price. The lesson from centuries of bubbles is that prices get wildly out of line and participants lose fortunes.

 

[Musica40]

Hoem Depot
Prudential
T Rowe Price
Valero
J P Morgan
Merck
Starbucks
CVS
Walgreens
Unum
Phillips 66


Tesla, CVS, Walgreens and T Row are down from my original purchase. Combined they have lost $50K. I do have some winners and overall my IRA is up over $40K. It was a rollover from a 401K.

 

[Kalm]

Should I sell Tesla Stock?

Hi. First off Tesla is not just an EV company but more of software company that manifests in automobiles. This distinction is important in that while most traditional automobiles devalue due to age, Tesla cars improve with added functionality through regular software updates. Musk never intended Tesla to grow to the size of GM and gave the EV design to other auto companies in the hopes of rapid adoption of the EV technology. With that said, as a Tesla stock owner who has benefitted quite well from starting with a small position in 2009 and has grown ones shares through stock splits etc, I would sell no more than 1/2 my position and retain the other half. No one has a crystal ball so managing the upsides as well as the downsides are built into this strategy. If Tesla continues to do well, well then you have 1/2 the position to play with. If the stock continues to decline, then you have taken profits before experiencing this risk. This strategy has served me well over the years as I am now fully retired and manage my own portfolio.

I myself am huge fan of Mr. Musk and knowing what success he has had with Tesla, SpaceX as well as Project Omega (generative AI), I plan on sticking with him. Good luck.

 

[cyber888]

I will bail on Tesla and put all my money on Amazon. Amazon just skyrocketed yesterday and today.

Elon Musk is too destructive - He wants to get $55 BILLION salary from Tesla, to the detriment of public share holders. That's not $55 million, but $55 Billion.
If you look at Audi, BMW, Mercedes, and Japanese and Korean cars, they are all selling EVs now and some with better features and battery life than Tesla. Tesla has so many competitions now.

 

[Texas Proud]

Hi. First off Tesla is not just an EV company but more of software company that manifests in automobiles. This distinction is important in that while most traditional automobiles devalue due to age, Tesla cars improve with added functionality through regular software updates. Musk never intended Tesla to grow to the size of GM and gave the EV design to other auto companies in the hopes of rapid adoption of the EV technology. With that said, as a Tesla stock owner who has benefitted quite well from starting with a small position in 2009 and has grown ones shares through stock splits etc, I would sell no more than 1/2 my position and retain the other half. No one has a crystal ball so managing the upsides as well as the downsides are built into this strategy. If Tesla continues to do well, well then you have 1/2 the position to play with. If the stock continues to decline, then you have taken profits before experiencing this risk. This strategy has served me well over the years as I am now fully retired and manage my own portfolio.

I myself am huge fan of Mr. Musk and knowing what success he has had with Tesla, SpaceX as well as Project Omega (generative AI), I plan on sticking with him. Good luck.

I keep hearing about Tesla being a software company but I do not see evidence of it... the vast majority of the income is selling cars and getting money from the gvmt... what pct. of sales is from software?



And the resale value of the car does not hold up to your statement... they devalue more than an ICE from what I have read...


I can buy a 2018 Model S for less than my 2018 Genesis... and the Genesis was cheaper back then...



You got in early and have a great profit... but I would ask how much lower are you from the high? It has been going down... high was $414 but now $188.... at least what I see on the graph...