I put it all in Disney in October 2012...and I got a lot of grief from memebers

[haha]

NW, you are clearly a stud!

Ha

 

[Jmo1969]

Why I stopped using stop loss orders - Michael Sincere's Long-Term Trader - MarketWatch

When using stop loss orders you sell at the next available price not the level where you place your stop loss. Very different....

 

[Zathras]

Agree with NW.
One of my stocks is up over 500%. One stock is a gamble, it could go up, or down.
To put everything on one stock is incredibly risky and foolish.
However, it could pay off very well. That doesn't mean it was a wise move.

 

[Fermion]

You put it all into Disney last year instead of Tesla? Very foolish!

 

[eta2020]

It looks like you earned maybe 37% versus lets say 25% growth of S&P 500 while taking
insane risks.
If it was me and I was to sell DIS now and roll it into IVV I would had lost to taxman all 12% of extra earnings. And selling DIS and rolling that money into broad index funds is exactly what I would......

 

[NW-Bound]

In case anybody missed the message in my earlier post, it was not about me bragging of my stock picks. All of what I wrote was the truth, but it was not the entire truth.

Let me point it out to you.

The OP wrote "I put it all in Disney in October 2012...and I got a lot of grief from members"...

Lemme see...

From Oct 5, 2012 to Oct 25, 2013, DIS is up +30.75%.

I do not own DIS, but how does it compare to some stocks that I own? I am talking about the ones on top of my list, not the ones at the bottom of course. For the same period, the performance of some of my stocks is as follows...

1) One winning stock

As I specifically pointed out, I was going to tell about my best stocks, not the worst ones. I did not tell you about some mining companies I own that are down -12% in the last 12 months. As I own many stocks, there are bound to be some that do very well. Even a monkey throwing darts 100 times will likely hit a ten bagger or two.

So, a person beating S&P500 with a single stock does not impress me. One has perhaps 50/50 chance of doing that. Now, a prudent person who beats the average while diversifying among 20+ stocks is someone I respect more.

-> Point: Anyone can get lucky.​

2) Period of performance

Because the OP was talking about the 1-yr performance of DIS, I made an apple-to-apple comparison with some of my stocks. With a single click on Quicken, I could sort all my positions by their 1-yr performance. I had to go down a way to get something that has performance less than DIS. Look at this AVX (AVX Corp). It gained 28.40% in the last 12-months, but only 13.20% in the last 3 years. What that means is that AVX dropped in the period of 2010-2012, and only recently climbs out of a hole. As I have held this stock for a while, it has been dragging down my portfolio long-term performance.

-> Point: It's long-term performance that counts.​

I have been doing more active investing since 1998. Prior to that, I was all in MFs. I quickly learned how quickly one stock could jump, either up or down, based on an earning report, or an event that seriously impaired its future earnings. The latter included accidents, lawsuits, loss of a large contract, etc...

In another thread, I told of one of my positions that dropped 10% at the open from the previous day's close. It kept on dropping through the day, and ended up closing near 15% down. Why? Among the reasons, its reported quarterly earnings were 81 cents, which missed the expectation of 83 cents. By the way, this is one of the S&P 500 companies.

Recently, one of my ETFs, this one a biotech ETF, dropped a sizeable percentage. I checked into it, and found out that one component of that ETF got reamed. This company closed at $17.19 one day, and opened at $5.59 the next morning. Why? The FDA put a hold on the clinical trial of its major drug.

As I have been an active investor since 1998 when I ventured from being an MF shareholder, I have learned to be careful when I have a recent portfolio outperformance, because it may not be lasting. And my portfolio does not consist of a single stock.

PS. By the way, one of my stocks that beat DIS in the last 12 months is LOW. Yes, Lowe's hardware chain which does not have a monopoly and has to share the market with Home Depot. If Disney owns some markets like the OP said, why is it not doing even better than boring Lowe's?

 

[REWahoo]

Disney? Pfffttt...

I put it all in Beaver Nuggets...and got no grief from meme-burrs at all.

 

[VaCollector]

I keep thinking of our good forum guy VA Collector when I read stuff like this. Thank goodness for being able to learn from collective wisdom.

...still....trying....to....forget.....and every time that I think that it's getting better....BOOOM! I sure wish they'd find SOMEBODY else to pick on...heck...ANYBODY!

 

[redduck]

But I'm laughing all the way to the bank so far, so neaww.

I don't understand, what do you do at the bank when you get there? And, on your way to the bank are you laughing out loud or just to yourself? Anyhow, if you find the laughter is uncontrollable, I think there might be medicine for that sort of condition. The down side is, it makes you drool. So, then you could drool all the way to the bank. Laughing, drooling--your choice.
Hope this helps.

 

[Fermion]

Uhg, mining stocks. I just sold a mining stock that lost 80% of its value from where I bought it. I don't quite understand how they could stay in business at $400 gold for years but can't make money at $1300 gold. Well, I do...fuel and labor are up way more than inflation indicates.

As they say though, you don't have to make it up in the same stock that you lost it, and that account is up 39.4% YTD even with the 80% loss in that $##@ miner.

 

[NW-Bound]

Mining stocks mean different things to different people. I have a friend who likes to buy these small Canadian gold miners. These are penny stocks which look like mom-and-pop operations. Not for me! The mining stocks I own are big international miners of industrial metals like iron, copper, aluminum, with sales as high as US$70 billion/yr.

Many of these are currently paying dividends of 3 to 4%.

 

[nun]

Wow you bought DIS in October 2012. If you'd done it 5 years ago instead of 1 year ago you'd have made a lot more money, sounds like you missed the boat.

 

[Fermion]

Mining stocks mean different things to different people. I have a friend who likes to buy these small Canadian gold miners. These are penny stocks which look like mom-and-pop operations. Not for me! The mining stocks I own are big international miners of industrial metals like iron, copper, aluminum, with annual sales as high as US$70 billion/yr.

Many of these are currently paying dividends of 3 to 4%.

I own FCX too

They did drop from the 40s to the low 30s however when they decided wrong or right to diversify into oil

 

[Danmar]

Notice that the OP waited 7 months to tell us about his trade. Typical of this type of poster. More interested in bragging or controversy than a rational, intelligent discussion.

 

[ziggy29]

Wow you bought DIS in October 2012. If you'd done it 5 years ago instead of 1 year ago you'd have made a lot more money, sounds like you missed the boat.

Then again, you can say that about almost any stock you didn't buy in late 2008 or early 2009...

 

[nun]

Then again, you can say that about almost any stock you didn't buy in late 2008 or early 2009...

My point exactly. Why is the OP so happy given that he could have made so much more money.

 

[tinlizzy]

I noticed DIS at $16 at the bottom of both 2002 and 2009. I told my son that I will probably always look at DIS now to gauge how low is low - but I hope never to see another crash....

I bought RCL at $8.06 in 2009 and sold it for $49.20. I put that money into Netflix in 2011 and lost $12K of that gain! Not to be deterred, I decided that I just wasn't skinning the cat correctly and bought McKesson in April 2012. In Dec. I decided to get out with a 12% gain and buy VTSAX. MCK is now up 59% YTD 2013 but I still feel good about my decision. It was too stressful.

 

[redduck]

I keep thinking of our good forum guy VA Collector when I read stuff like this. Thank goodness for being able to learn from collective wisdom.

VA Collector:

But surely you're feelin' the love.

 

[free2020]

Thanks for the posts. As mentioned above, I view DIS as a mutual fund without any fees, and they pay a dividend. They own the only sports network which just got exclusive rights to a college football playoff which will be bigger than the Super Bowl in my opinion. They are opening a Shanghai park which will service the worlds largest population and introduce them to their products. They own the most successful and profitable movie franchises ever made with new films on the horizon. I expect shares to hit 75$ this year and up to 95$ next year.

Prior to this move I had 300K in a diversified fund with a manger for the prior 2 years, made about 5-7% in a market which doubled during that time, and I paid him fees. No more of that.

So I moved it all to a Schwab account and did my due diligence. Bought 5500 shares of DIS and 15000 shares of CELGZ which should pay very well in the very near future. I think the best line I've ever heard is from Warren Buffett, "if you're going to take a swing, try to hit a home run". Since I'm still in my 40's with my finger on the sell button if things go down, then yes, I took a chance.

Good luck to you all, I'm hoping this thing continues to pay off.

+1 ...for calling out the total waste of fee-paid managers
+1....the reference to Warren Buffett's view of concentration

I'm new to this board and searched for and landed on this topic of concentrated investing. While I am not going to dismiss broad diversification if it's in one's comfort zone, being a concentrator myself, I would ask that people not dismiss this approach either.

Concentration has worked for many, many people. In fact, many m(&b)illionaires got there through concentrating their money, like owners of farmland, small business, real estate etc. They owned and operated their own concentrated investments and reaped $$ success. Warren Buffett has been appealing to our investing senses that buying a piece of paper called stock should be treated the same way, that is you buy it (lots of it) and own forever. The important difference is that since you don't "operate" the business like farmland, investment real estate or small business, you still behave like you own the whole thing. This is why it is really important to buy into businesses that operate like true owner-operators and also treat you as a true partner. When you find a business that has a long history of running a successful business this way and you thoroughly understand the business and are comfortable with your understanding of it's prospects and risks, go ahead and concentrate. The dumbest thing you'd be doing is to go on trading your fractional ownership just because someone (Mr. Market) else says the business is worth something now and something else later.

If someone got burned by concentrating their money on the wrong business, the responsibility lies with the person(not understanding the business), not the business or the approach of concentration.

I should add that businesses that pass my qualification for extreme concentration are very, very few in number. Berkshire Hathaway is one for me. What concentration has allowed me is to spend my limited time on understanding what I own and on hobbies. I sleep very well at night!