Is the Motley Fool "Stock Advisor" really worth it?

[strobot]

Basically, the title. Anybody have any experience using the Stock Advisor with MF? Is it really as good as advertised? I have a hard time believing it. Would love some feedback on this and examples from individuals that have ACTUALLY used it - not second-hand information.

Thanks!

 

[Sunset]

I followed them for a while back in 2000, it didn't end well.

 

[travelover]

People that know to pick stocks successfully, do so and don’t have to write newsletters to make a buck.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

They are just out to make money. Pass.

I recall noticing a slew of their suggestions being off base.

 

[strobot]

They are just out to make money. Pass.

I recall noticing a slew of their suggestions being off base.

Which ones? Do you have examples? Thanks!

 

[njhowie]

They are just out to make money. Pass.

I recall noticing a slew of their suggestions being off base.

As much as that may be the case, they have been right on some very big winners over time - most notably Amazon. Way back in the early days, just after the IPO when they were nothing more than an online bookstore and the shares were maybe $20, The Fool founders did an extensive piece on Amazon, and put forth the case where they would become the online Walmart. It was really an excellent piece and quite forward looking/thinking at the time. It's obviously played out exactly as was envisioned, if not better.

 

[tdv2]

I have a hard time believing it.

Is it worth it? I think you answered your own question correctly.

 

[strobot]

I find it hard to believe nobody on this site has used it. Interesting, though!

 

[Bigdawg]

As much as that may be the case, they have been right on some very big winners over time - most notably Amazon. Way back in the early days, just after the IPO when they were nothing more than an online bookstore and the shares were maybe $20, The Fool founders did an extensive piece on Amazon, and put forth the case where they would become the online Walmart. It was really an excellent piece and quite forward looking/thinking at the time. It's obviously played out exactly as was envisioned, if not better.

Squirrel-Nut
Coin flip
etc...

 

[Aerides]

I find it hard to believe nobody on this site has used it. Interesting, though!

Shouldn't be hard to believe. The community here generally doesn't pay for financial advice, because it's not backed up with results. Time and again, study after study, active management does not outpace passive. Those that do individual stock picking generally do their own research.

 

[target2019]

I find it hard to believe nobody on this site has used it. Interesting, though!

A broken clock is right twice a day. Throw enough darts and some hit center.

Most early retirees and those with the dream have figured out a basic formula. Regular index investing + Time = Happiness. Sure there are some who hit it nice with APPL, AMZN, etc., but the discussion usually turns to the index fund or ETF part of the portfolio.

Have you read any Bogle or Bernstein?

 

[Montecfo]

I have never subscribed but here is a good way to try them out: take one of the teaser emails a s go to www. Stockgumshoe.com and they have probably figured out the stock. Then follow that stock and see of it works out.

Full disclosure, I did this. I had seen the teaser several times about Motley Fool's number one pot stock, which had gained a thousand percent over x amount of time or whatever the teaser was. I got really curious because I know most of the pot stocks have not done really well.

Well, according to stock gum shoe, the stock was Shopify (SHOP) which I did buy, and it has done fantastically well.

But I didn't subscribe to the stock advisor, I guess I liked the stock gumshoe method better. Also used it to unearth another one of their big teaser ideas which was The Trade Desk, which I have not bought, but was familiar with and it has been an amazing stock.

 

[Blue531]

I used the Motley Fool Stock Advisor from 2015 to 2018. It was at the beginning of my self education into the stock market. David Gardner is the overall better stock picker on that board. It helped me get my feet wet, but I cancelled after three years once I felt comfortable enough to pick stocks on my own. It had a bit of useful knowledge on there, but not any you couldn't get free online elsewhere. They provide analysis and reasoning to their stock picks. Overall, I would say it isn't worth it. I would say a replacement for that would be to immerse yourself in the market and to read about various investing styles and investment strategies. It takes time to understand your own tolerance level when it comes to picking individual stocks I'd say. Some are okay with with smaller returns and some want more aggressive returns. The more we understand investing, the better we can decide for ourselves, not that we will ever have all the answers. You can finding promising stocks in many other ways online that are free with research and various criteria. I use Barchart and Finviz, read up and research a lot and listen to others who research as well on you tube. Bood luck to you!

 

[SecondCor521]

I was on the MF message boards way back when it was probably really an emerging tool for them to grow their subscriber and marketing base (different username because I was married at the time). In true cheapskate fashion I left when they started charging and came here (as many did).

What amuses me greatly about this service is that originally the MF schtick was that you didn't need advisors, they didn't outperform the market, and you could do all the research and education yourself. They regularly made fun of stock advisors and even named their enterprise on that premise - somehow they inverted foolish to refer to the fact that a stock advisor would call you foolish for going it alone, which made you a Fool, which really meant wise. Now here they are doing exactly what they said was foolish and claiming it is wise. Maybe that was their real schtick all along to differentiate themselves from all the other stock advisors.

From what I can tell (and honestly I don't think the MF folks in general are smart enough for me to investigate much), they are probably decent stock pickers but they cherry pick and/or slant their data in a positive direction in various ways.

 

[garyt]

People that know to pick stocks successfully, do so and don’t have to write newsletters to make a buck.

I hear this all the time and it kind of bugs me. If I'm the world's greatest stock picker and I sell my advice, don't I now have more money to invest in those great stocks? Plus, other people investing in my stocks helps their share price.
And that subscriber money is a sure thing. It's being diversified.

 

[NgineER]

Which ones? Do you have examples? Thanks!

DDD 3D systems was pushed a couple of years ago - bought some while it was still going up based on their teaser letter and then exited on the way down - made a couple of dollars, but would not consider it a home run.

 

[NgineER]

I have never subscribed but here is a good way to try them out: take one of the teaser emails a s go to www. Stockgumshoe.com and they have probably figured out the stock. Then follow that stock and see of it works out.

+1

Did the Stockgumshoe site. Did it with Shopify also, but dropped out earlier after only 300% gain - If i still had it I would have made a lot more...

 

[garyt]

I find it hard to believe nobody on this site has used it. Interesting, though!

I have. I didn't blindly follow their advice but used their recs as a starting point to do my own due diligence. I bought Netflix at $34 on their rec, so you know that worked out well for me. I still hold some of the MF recs I bought
I haven't been a subscriber in years, can't really remember but it's probably been 10 years? So you could do a back test on some of the stocks I'll mention. After the first year they were offering me re-ups at $49 which I felt was worth it. They are very much buy and hold, almost never sell.

Winners I had off the top of my head that I got from them:
Netflix which was huge
Activision Blizzard also huge
Cintas CTAS which is up 1600% since 2009
RGEN made 300% and sold shouldn't have
GOOG
Intel INTC
Mastercard MA huge for me 1000%?
Texas Instruments
Apple

Some others I owned and made a few bucks on before selling:
Polaris PII
Aflac AFL
Cndn Natl Railroaqd CNI
Gilead GILD
Gartner IT
MSM
Nike NKE
Robert half RHI:


Losers: National Oilwell Varco NOV great for awhile
Borg Warner BWA maybe not a loser but a laggard
Kinder Morgan KMI
Under armour UA high flyer for awhile, I think I still was up a bit when I got out

Others that I made a little on : PEP, HAS, FDX

So they did pretty well for me. I sell my losers quickly and hold my winners so I have no complaints. I should try them again to see where they are today, but I'm not really buying equities anymore now that I'm retired.

Edit to add: Costco was also a rec as was BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings and I think FB. I'll add more if I think of them. They definitely had some losers, most of which I never invested in thankfully. David Gardner was more of the home run guy while Tom was the more conservative guy.

 

[OldShooter]

People that know to pick stocks successfully, do so and don’t have to write newsletters to make a buck.

Exactly. Either they don't have any faith in their own recommendations or they have tried the recommendations and they don't work.

The test would be an audited chart showing every recommendation they have have made and how it turned out. Such a chart would probably be delivered by a flying pig.

 

[garyt]

DDD 3D systems was pushed a couple of years ago - bought some while it was still going up based on their teaser letter and then exited on the way down - made a couple of dollars, but would not consider it a home run.

Forgot about that one, I bought it too and it was a high flyer for awhile. Like you, I sold on the way down and still made some good money.
Just checked, wow has that company tanked! I wonder if MF ever put out a sell on it.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I was on the MF message boards way back when it was probably really an emerging tool for them to grow their subscriber and marketing base (different username because I was married at the time). In true cheapskate fashion I left when they started charging and came here (as many did).

What amuses me greatly about this service is that originally the MF schtick was that you didn't need advisors, they didn't outperform the market, and you could do all the research and education yourself. They regularly made fun of stock advisors and even named their enterprise on that premise - somehow they inverted foolish to refer to the fact that a stock advisor would call you foolish for going it alone, which made you a Fool, which really meant wise. Now here they are doing exactly what they said was foolish and claiming it is wise. Maybe that was their real schtick all along to differentiate themselves from all the other stock advisors.

From what I can tell (and honestly I don't think the MF folks in general are smart enough for me to investigate much), they are probably decent stock pickers but they cherry pick and/or slant their data in a positive direction in various ways.

Truth

 

[WhenIsItTime]

I did Hidden Gems years ago. I bought their picks for a while and then got more selective. I liked their write ups as plain-English way to learn about companies. They kept a scorecard vs S&P 500 and beat it for several years I followed. I thought fee was worth few hundred a year initially.

Problem - (1) of small portion of my portfolio in individual stocks, I prefer to hold less than <40 and hold long term. The newsletter approach tends to accumulate unique picks over time. (2) The message boards were all blindly in love with the picks. (3) I had examples where I disagreed with them and we grew apart.

Was fun/engaging for a while.

 

[r3saving]

I've used both Motley Fool Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers since 2009 though I've recently let Rules Breakers go in favor of reducing risk (index funds) now that I've retired.

If looking to make a quick buck or for "trading" advice, it's not that sort of service. They are an LTBH idea service and they never advocate trying to time the market. They also don't claim all of their picks winners; their full score cards are visible for any service(s) to which you subscribe. The secret sauce is the message boards where there are a lot of very smart people with both bull and bear arguments for the various picks.

In any event, I know for certain that they do honor the 30 day money back guarentee so if you subscribe, read the material, look around and find it's not for you, cancel and get your money back. No harm in that. I personally find the service to be educational and it certainly has been profitable. I still hold many of my earliest picks from the services to which I subscribed.

Good luck whatever you decide.

 

[38Chevy454]

Not a member, but see their teaser articles all the time. Read some of them for entertainment. My analogy impression is they want to win the game by hitting several home runs. Maybe I am more conservative, but my view is win the game by hitting a lot more singles and few doubles. I am also big about diversification, not an individual stock holder once I retired. I'll take steady small step success over large steps less often.

 

[garyt]

Exactly. Either they don't have any faith in their own recommendations or they have tried the recommendations and they don't work.

The test would be an audited chart showing every recommendation they have have made and how it turned out. Such a chart would probably be delivered by a flying pig.

Again, I think that's silly. If you have a skill why not monetize it? An electrician makes a fine living doing electrical work, but what's wrong with him putting "how to" videos on youtube to make even more moneyy off his knowledge? Same concept.