Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[W2R]

Yep. Never buy windows for energy saving. You may save, but not much. Buy them for other reasons.

I already have windows. They let the sun in and keep the rain out. If/when they stop doing either of those things, I'll consider buying new windows.

 

[Gumby]

When we moved in to our house 30 years ago, it was already 135 years old, and the windows, which were original to the house, were just beat. We replaced them after 17 years of ownership (when we finally had saved the money to do it). While I'm sure we improved the energy efficiency of the house, that's not why we replaced the windows. And, at $1000 a window for 33 windows (back in 2008), I'm sure the payback period in energy saving will far exceed our lifespan.

 

[jimbee]

Wait, that can't be. I keep reading here that inflation is over.

Any examples of that from this site you can cite? Thanks in advance.

 

[audreyh1]

There has been loads of discussion about how the last 6 months had only 0.16% inflation, and many have expressed the opinion that inflation peaked a while ago (over 6 months ago) and will continue dropping. We’ll see how it plays out over the next few years. Once entrenched, inflation doesn’t usually go away so easily, one reason the Fed speaks with a hawkish tongue these days. But these have been extraordinary times, so who knows.

 

[Gumby]

Inflation is defined as the change in CPI over some period of time. The headlines usually report what that has been over the past year, but inflation can be measured over any period of time. In mathematics, it is a first derivative of the price function - dx/dt - where x is CPI and t is time (d is delta or change). The instantaneous inflation rate is the slope of the curve of the CPI graph at any point in time. When that slope is zero, that just means prices are steady. It does not mean that they have returned to a previous level. So, yes, prices are higher than they were a year or two ago. But that means inflation has occurred in the past, not that it exists right now. For prices to return to previous levels, you would need negative inflation (i.e. - deflation).


People can feel whatever they want, but math is math.

 

[Sunset]

Our auto insurance is coming up for renewal.
No accidents, no tickets.
We do the mileage type so it a base rate plus per mile driven, and we do maybe 5K->7K miles per year.

Compared to 1 year ago the base rate is up: 55% and the mileage rate is up 30%

 

[pb4uski]

I already have windows. They let the sun in and keep the rain out. If/when they stop doing either of those things, I'll consider buying new windows.

I need to have you talk with my DW and straighten her out.

 

[GenXguy]

Our auto insurance is coming up for renewal.
No accidents, no tickets.
We do the mileage type so it a base rate plus per mile driven, and we do maybe 5K->7K miles per year.

Compared to 1 year ago the base rate is up: 55% and the mileage rate is up 30%

I just recently got a renewal. It was a bigger jump this year. No claims, same older car.

The homeowner's insurance is the one I worry about. It's been going up much faster than the government inflation figures, something like 25% over the last couple years alone. It will be a few months before I get that this year. No claims ever.

 

[bobandsherry]

Our auto insurance is coming up for renewal.
No accidents, no tickets.
We do the mileage type so it a base rate plus per mile driven, and we do maybe 5K->7K miles per year.

Compared to 1 year ago the base rate is up: 55% and the mileage rate is up 30%

FWIW, my parents had similar coverage (pay by the mile) and miles driven. There's shot up. They could get a "regular" type of policy, no longer based on the "per mile" for 2x the # of miles they currently drive and for less. My assumption, taking your input as well, is insurer's underestimated the cost per mile (supposedly should have been based on their prior claims experience).

Also FWIW, received my renewal for my auto policy, surprisingly it was $2 less.

 

[JoeWras]

The homeowner's insurance is the one I worry about. It's been going up much faster than the government inflation figures, something like 25% over the last couple years alone. It will be a few months before I get that this year. No claims ever.

This is one of those things that can frustrate you about the CPI. There is no "Home Insurance" line in the CPI. There is a "tenant's insurance" line, which is basically insurance on contents, which is only a portion of a typical homeowner policy.

The portion of insurance that covers the structure is baked into the "Owner's Equivalent Rent" of the CPI, which is very, very hot. But you can't extract insurance out of that. Too bad.

 

[Winemaker]

My auto premium went down almost $100. Three vehicles, my 2019 Tacoma lease went to a 2022 Tacoma purchase, and there was a $4800 encounter with a deer on driver's side fender on my third day of ownership with 125 miles on it.

 

[wmc1000]

We also converted to LED lighting throughout and added a variable speed pump to our pool. We have a roof that faces south azimuth of 210 degrees and 22 Kyocera panels with 22 Enphase microinverters to generate 11 megawatts. Our system was installed in 2012. Panels are more efficient today and so are the inverters. You should run an analysis of your area with PVCalcs or other online tools to see if it's even feasible. For us it was the best investment ever. In 2012 we paid a net $15,876 (after the 30% tax credits) to save $3623 per year on electricity. That was like buying a CD with a tax free return of 22.8% per year. Electricity rates have moved up significantly since 2012 so the savings are even higher. Solar only makes sense if you can position your panels south on your property and you live in an area where there is plenty of sunshine free of shadows.

Thanks for the input - even though we use 2.5 times your electricity our 2022 total cost was only slightly higher than you at $3733! Went to PVcalcs and it appears we could do a 20Kw system which would offset a high percentage of our use but basically in reverse order of when the use occurs so with our REMC it pays a net billing rate so we would get a little over 50% back on excess generation in summer using all generation plus more in winter - best guess is we would save maybe $1500 per year and net cost after credits for this size system would be in the neighborhood of $40,000 with a payback of about 25+ years even considering electric rate increases.

Appears for us it is better to maximize energy savings as opposed to offsetting use as 25 years may be beyond our life expectancy as we are both 70 this year.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Once again, "Personal Inflation" is subjective. For us it has not been a blip in the radar that was even worth worrying about. I doubt that it has been life changing for many on this forum. Simply another thing to chat, discuss, and for some maybe complain about. In fact, we are celebrating higher fixed rate returns, 8.7% SS increase, so all good. Has it REALLY change anyone's quality of life? Not ours. Now worrying about Covid increasing violent crime is a different story.

 

[aja8888]

I need to have you talk with my DW and straighten her out.

It only makes financial sense to replace windows in a house when the surrounding frame structure is rotted or so badly shrunk, re-caulking won't help stop all the drafts. Changing from single pane to double pane glass is good for noise abatement but leaking is generally from the seals at the frame interfaces.

Three of my ROMEO buddies wives have talked them into expensive window replacements ($30 K +) in 20 year old houses because that's what other wives are bragging about at the Garden Club luncheon meetings.

Even with leaking windows, payback periods are measured in decades. Gumby's post is right on.

 

[Chuckanut]

I already have windows. They let the sun in and keep the rain out. If/when they stop doing either of those things, I'll consider buying new windows.

Of topic, my apologies, but adding the cell style window blinds in my house sees to have reduced heat loss quite a bit. It’s like having another layer of insulation between the cold windows and the inside of the house. And a lot cheaper than new windows.

Back on topic….

Food seems to be going back up, gasoline has jumped about 25 cents a gallon in January.

 

[Fermion]

I was looking at some salmon and it was $23 a pound, Ribeye was $19 a pound. Maybe it just seems like things are still going up because they remain high, but I don't like salmon enough to pay $23 a pound for it...

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I was looking at some salmon and it was $23 a pound, Ribeye was $19 a pound. Maybe it just seems like things are still going up because they remain high, but I don't like salmon enough to pay $23 a pound for it...

Fresh unfrozen Salmon here is $9.69 a pound. Up $1 from last month. It does tend to fluctuate a little.

 

[target2019]

Comcast (internet + basic TV) is $118, up from $110. That's a 7.3% increase.

 

[Fermion]

The premium for our 34 foot sailboat increased by 12%. It is still one of the cheaper rates last time I shopped around but that is still a pretty big jump.

I know the insurance company probably has higher expenses with wage inflation and such but our coverage numbers did not increase.

I guess it is possible that claims which do not reach the cap are still on average higher because repair costs have gone up across the board? Or the insurance company is just greedy...

 

[audreyh1]

Fed raises 1/4% point as expected.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point and gave little indication that it is nearing the end of this hiking cycle.

Aligning with market expectations, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee boosted the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point. That takes it to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%, the highest since October 2007.

The move marked the eighth increase in a process that began in March 2022. By itself, the funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight borrowing, but it also spills through to many consumer debt products.

From https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/fed...html?__source=google|editorspicks|&par=google

 

[explanade]

Comcast (internet + basic TV) is $118, up from $110. That's a 7.3% increase.

They've been raising prices just about every year, even before higher inflation.

 

[audreyh1]

There is another thread where people post their personal inflation experiences

Examples of Current Inflation - add yours! https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/examples-of-current-inflation-add-yours-114205-54.html

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Fed raises 1/4% point as expected.


From https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/fed...html?__source=google|editorspicks|&par=google

With 2 more anticipated. Eager to listen to the meeting at 2:30.

Update:

After listening to his speech at 2:30pm, it makes me chuckle that he said they were considering another 2 increases to the FFR, and a targer rate of 5.25%, yet I heard about 4 questions ..... so far that asked how many increases there would be.

 

[JoeWras]

It only makes financial sense to replace windows in a house when the surrounding frame structure is rotted or so badly shrunk, re-caulking won't help stop all the drafts. Changing from single pane to double pane glass is good for noise abatement but leaking is generally from the seals at the frame interfaces.

Three of my ROMEO buddies wives have talked them into expensive window replacements ($30 K +) in 20 year old houses because that's what other wives are bragging about at the Garden Club luncheon meetings.

Even with leaking windows, payback periods are measured in decades. Gumby's post is right on.

This right here. And also plus on Gumby comment. Don't replace windows for club talk.

Powell is emphasizing service inflation component. Still listening...

 

[Koolau]

Yep. Never buy windows for energy saving. You may save, but not much. Buy them for other reasons.

Yeah, I got tired of straining my back trying to open the old windows - not to mention pinching my fingers when the darn things finally gave and went flying up (or down.)

The new ones were one-finger operation. They had these cool built-in stops that allowed the windows to stay open a few inches without being subject to manipulation from the outside.

Because they were so easy to operate, I often opened them in the cool of the evening in summer, turned on window fans upstairs which cooled the house and then only used the AC the next day to kill any extra humidity. Saved a lot of money.

Did the same thing in fall - allowing the day's warm air in and sealing out the cold at night. Used properly in this fashion, my SWAG is that we actually did pay for the windows BUT it required daily (morning and night) physical manipulation of the windows to accomplish the savings. Well worth it and very green. I never actually calculated any savings, so YMMV.