Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[Gumby]

It would be fine by me if travel did not recover. Then it would be less expensive and less crowded, and I would enjoy that.

 

[JoeWras]

"The Era of UltraCheap Stuff is Under Threat" That's the title of a recent WSJ article. Free link here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-f...tyzl6bdvvp5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

It explores what is going on in Asia demographically. Not only are their fewer young Asians, but they also have become more world aware and don't want to work in factories. This is creating a lot of wage pressure. The article emphasizes garment making, but recognizes other markets too.

This is more a "long game" issue of inflation. But it seems to me like suddenly all these demographic factors are hitting us like a hammer. I guess COVID shook things up.

Asia, the world’s factory floor and the source of much of the stuff Americans buy, is running into a big problem: Its young people, by and large, don’t want to work in factories.

That’s why the garment factory is trying to make its manufacturing floor more enticing, and why alarm bells are ringing at Western companies that rely on the region’s inexpensive labor to churn out affordable consumer goods.

The twilight of ultracheap Asian factory labor is emerging as the latest test of the globalized manufacturing model, which over the past three decades has delivered a vast array of inexpensively produced goods to consumers around the world. Americans accustomed to bargain-rate fashion and flat-screen TVs might soon be reckoning with higher prices.

“There’s nowhere left on the planet that’s going to be able to give you what you want,” said Paul Norriss, the British co-founder of the Vietnam garment factory, UnAvailable, based in Ho Chi Minh City. “People are going to have to change their consumer habits, and so are brands.”

Now I would disagree with Norriss. If Africa can ever get its act together, there is another garment factory horizon. The problem is stability. It exists a bit. I've had clothes made in both Lesotho and Nigeria. So there is "somewhere" on the planet.

On a personal note, I was invited to Amazon's "Vine" program and for the first 6 months, collected almost nothing but landfill junk. I had a change of heart about my consumption and I'm really trying to be intentional about buying cheap stuff.

I'm not a clothing guy, the last clothes I bought were Levis 2 years ago (made in Lesotho). However, garment consumption is way up around the world and I'll leave it to you to find the stories about the mess we've made with discarded clothing ending up on African beaches. Most of this was "donated." Concerned about global warming? Don't buy so many clothes. Your donations aren't helping, even if only mildly used, many go in the trash pile.

 

[Aerides]

Concerned about global warming? Don't buy so many clothes. Your donations aren't helping, even if only mildly used, many go in the trash pile.

It's more about avoiding "fast fashion" - cheap stuff designed to last for months vs. years. No one feels bad throwing away a $4 t-shirt. And if you buy one, it will barely last 5 washes.

Shien, Amazon, Old Navy, heck even a lot of the stuff at Costso, and many many retailers, exist in this space.

And it means avoiding trends that suddenly everyone is wearing, and that come and go quickly. If a women is wearing a "cold shoulder" top I know she got it in 2019, and hasn't realized no one else wears those anymore. For women's clothing, other tell-tale signs are things like little added ruffles and details - they hide the lack of clean lines, of good construction.

I don't buy anything that I would not wear for years. That means I'm paying easily $70 for a nice T if not on sale. But the two T's I got in 2016 look new.

 

[JoeWras]

It's more about avoiding "fast fashion" - cheap stuff designed to last for months vs. years. No one feels bad throwing away a $4 t-shirt. And if you buy one, it will barely last 5 washes.

Shien, Amazon, Old Navy, heck even a lot of the stuff at Costso, and many many retailers, exist in this space.

And it means avoiding trends that suddenly everyone is wearing, and that come and go quickly. If a women is wearing a "cold shoulder" top I know she got it in 2019, and hasn't realized no one else wears those anymore. For women's clothing, other tell-tale signs are things like little added ruffles and details - they hide the lack of clean lines, of good construction.

I don't buy anything that I would not wear for years. That means I'm paying easily $70 for a nice T if not on sale. But the two T's I got in 2016 look new.

Yes, exactly! I'm an old bald guy. I know nothing of fast fashion.

My thing is work clothes, and buy durable stuff. After having a few cheap belts break, I got one from Duluth, and although it was 3x more expensive, it is a beast and can handle everything I hang from it. Has lasted me 3 years so far with nearly daily wear.

If this inflation continues and labor becomes scarce in Asia, we'll all be more careful with our clothing purchases.

 

[Chuckanut]

One thing I try to do is not buy items that can only do one thing. For example, a few years ago I stumbled across an electric hot dog cooker. That’s all it could do. If you saw a picture of it you would know why. OTOH, my insta-pot can be used for many things, from making yogurt to bean soup to even making a Mexican style casserole.

Of course there are exceptions, especially in the area of quality tools to fix the car or repair the broken pipe. You don’t use them often, but when you need them you really NEED them.

 

[Gumby]

My experience with "multi-purpose" tools is that they tend not to do any of those things well. I've got plenty of room, so I prefer to have quality, single-purpose tools.

 

[JoeWras]

My experience with "multi-purpose" tools is that they tend not to do any of those things well. I've got plenty of room, so I prefer to have quality, single-purpose tools.

Yep. They call it an oscillating tool or multi tool. Despite the "multi" name, it really only does one thing well: cutting.

It has a sanding attachment that is only good for corners. A good old hand sanding block does just as well.

 

[NW-Bound]

"The Era of UltraCheap Stuff is Under Threat" That's the title of a recent WSJ article. Free link here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/asia-f...tyzl6bdvvp5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Garments that people buy, wear once or twice, then throw away is the scourge of mass production to satisfy wanton consumption.

Of course it has created work for countless workers in 3rd world countries, but I wish there were other works for them to create durable goods that hold value and usefulness better.

 

[NW-Bound]

About inflation, Tyson just released its quarterly report, and it looked bleak for them: closing 4 more chicken or pork processing plants, and laying off workers including 10% of corporate jobs.

Reason cited: [FONT=&quot]the average price of pork dropped 16.4% year-over-year and chicken fell 5.5%.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Inflation?
[/FONT]

 

[aja8888]

About inflation, Tyson just released its quarterly report, and it looked bleak for them: closing 4 more chicken or pork processing plants, and laying off workers including 10% of corporate jobs.

Reason cited: [FONT=&quot]the average price of pork dropped 16.4% year-over-year and chicken fell 5.5%.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Inflation?
[/FONT]

Too many chickens and pigs around these days. Blame the farmers!

 

[Montecfo]

Pork is definitely cheaper. Had not noticed chicken.

 

[NW-Bound]

Since when do we have too many chicken?

Was it just last week that eggs were expensive because there were not enough chicken?

Chicken falling from the sky or what?

 

[aja8888]

Since when do we have too many chicken?

Was it just last week that eggs were expensive because there were not enough chicken?

Chicken falling from the sky or what?

I think the hens were on strike......thus, fewer eggs.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think the hens were on strike......thus, fewer eggs.

OK. Those chicken that refused to lay eggs are now on Costco spit roast.

PS. And speaking of pork, my wife just got some pork chops for $0.67/lb. Inflation?

 

[Gumby]

Garments that people buy, wear once or twice, then throw away is the scourge of mass production to satisfy wanton consumption.

Of course it has created work for countless workers in 3rd world countries, but I wish there were other works for them to create durable goods that hold value and usefulness better.

I recall a recent article about a gigantic pile of clothes in the Atacama Desert in Chile that can be seen from a satellite.

 

[CaptTom]

I'd look closer at those "lower" prices. Lower than when? Are they comparing prices to when the supply-chain issues were in full swing and lots of prices skyrocketed? Pork and chicken prices are certainly down since then. To me, pork looks about where it was before, and chicken maybe a bit higher.

That said, my idea of "before" could be 5 or 10 years ago. My sense of time isn't what it used to be.

 

[Koolau]

Y'all are lucky to be in such Megacorps .

That's for sure. My Megacorp had some advantages and a few good moves. Honoring age (aka experience) was not one of them. Sad, really. I saw some really good people with amazing skills simply moved further and further off stage until they would be like Milton Waddams in "Office Space "- Removed to some closet where no one could see them or hear from them.


We had a guy in Quality Control who literally wrote our plant sites QC manuals. He knew statistics forwards and backwards. Any time I had a question about a lab result or set of results, I'd ask "Bob." He'd whip out a piece of paper and graph the data and show me an "obvious" trend or discrepancy and help me know which lead to pursue.



But - eventually, this guy who had led an entire department was stuck in a corner at a desk with virtually no duties. I took full advantage of his experience and expertise. Folks couldn't understand where I came up with my "insights" on thorny problems. I'd say "I asked Bob to review the data." I'd hear back "Bob? What would he know about it?"


Bob eventually had a stroke (at age 58) and retired. He said it was the best thing that ever happened to him. He admitted that his being shuffled to the side had bothered him a lot. Seeing the "light" after his stroke put him on a path to a 25 year retirement. But, I hated to see my own, personal QC guy leave. You don't know what you've got 'til it's gone (Thanks, Joni!)

 

[NW-Bound]

Earlier, we talked about eggs and chicken.

I had to ask my wife, as I don't pay enough attention to grocery prices, nor can remember them.

I asked my wife about the most recent price of eggs. She said, "There was a deal for $0.99". Wanting to be sure, I asked "For a dozen?". She replied "Pfftt. For 18".

That's a data point for you armchair economists.

 

[Koolau]

Earlier, we talked about eggs and chicken.

I had to ask my wife, as I don't pay enough attention to grocery prices, nor can remember them.

I asked my wife about the most recent price of eggs. She said, "There was a deal for $0.99". Wanting to be sure, I asked "For a dozen?". She replied "Pfftt. For 18".

That's a data point for you armchair economists.

Keep in mind the "egg" thing was primarily due to Avian flu. Not the normal printing of too much money (though that adds to the problem) and other "usual subjects." YMMV

 

[GenXguy]

OK. Those chicken that refused to lay eggs are now on Costco spit roast.

PS. And speaking of pork, my wife just got some pork chops for $0.67/lb. Inflation?

Pork was brought up earlier in one of these threads. When I'm looking at buying pork loin chops, the best sales price I'm seeing is $4/lb. Same with butterfly porkchops. Regular price is even higher. Eggs vary, but I have picked up some regular priced large dozen eggs for around $1.50, which is still way higher than they were before all this inflation.

Everything at the grocery store seems so expensive compared to prepandemic. I'm paying about 46% more for the apples I get. Steak has gotten ridiculous. Sometimes I think I see a "fair" deal only to see it's for 8 oz. instead of pound! I almost never buy it anymore.

 

[NW-Bound]

Food is cheap where we are.

Just now, looking at local ads on the Web, cucumbers and small avocados are $1 for 4. Onion often $1 for 3 lbs. USDA Choice ribeye steak bone in, $8/lb right now but I have seen it lower. Top sirloin $6/lb. Sirloin pork chop $1.89, shrimp 26/30 $5, etc...

 

[Koolau]

Pork was brought up earlier in one of these threads. When I'm looking at buying pork loin chops, the best sales price I'm seeing is $4/lb. Same with butterfly porkchops. Regular price is even higher. Eggs vary, but I have picked up some regular priced large dozen eggs for around $1.50, which is still way higher than they were before all this inflation.

Everything at the grocery store seems so expensive compared to prepandemic. I'm paying about 46% more for the apples I get. Steak has gotten ridiculous. Sometimes I think I see a "fair" deal only to see it's for 8 oz. instead of pound! I almost never buy it anymore.

Pork prices vary by areas. Many areas are enjoying low pork prices right now. Enjoy (cheaper) pork while you can. I'm guessing farmers are selling off their too-costly herds(??) and future pork will be expensive. It's a fairly normal cycle in the livestock bidness. YMMV

 

[Montecfo]

Pork was brought up earlier in one of these threads. When I'm looking at buying pork loin chops, the best sales price I'm seeing is $4/lb. Same with butterfly porkchops. Regular price is even higher. Eggs vary, but I have picked up some regular priced large dozen eggs for around $1.50, which is still way higher than they were before all this inflation.

Everything at the grocery store seems so expensive compared to prepandemic. I'm paying about 46% more for the apples I get. Steak has gotten ridiculous. Sometimes I think I see a "fair" deal only to see it's for 8 oz. instead of pound! I almost never buy it anymore.

You should shop at Costco. Pork tenderloin, pork chops, loin chops $2.25-2.75 a pound.

We buy meat on sale at local food stores and it is still a good buy.

Boneless chicken breasts $1.99 a pound. Just an example.

 

[JoeWras]

Eggs were not the problem a few months ago and are not the solution now.

These wild swings are a reason they came up with "core" inflation, which discards rapidly fluctuating commodities.

A little perspective on CPI and relative importance:
- Eggs: 0.125%
- Pork: 0.328%
- Cheese: 0.244%

- Used cars: 2.752%
- Housing: 34.67%

 

[Winemaker]

Just got back from our annual wine/grape pilgrimage to Amador, Solano, and Napa Counties. Winery visits are down, wine sales down , restaurant sales up. Hotels and VRBOs sales down 30%. Owners were blaming wealthy folks going overseas after eased Covid restrictions. All legs on our Southwest flights were full.

The last leg of our flight home from Denver was delayed over 30 minutes because there were not enough "pushers" to transport wheelchair customers off of previous flight. The poor gate agent was working by himself and personally transported 8 wheel chair customers by himself. He had to go to the other gates to acquire enough wheelchairs. The captain actually came out and wheeled 2 wheel chair customers for pre-boarding. The company contracted for this service can't get enough workers and is failing miserably.