LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[NW-Bound]

Can you get your wife to do that?

 

[Fermion]

Can you get your wife to do that?

Not for free.

 

[hesperus]

Just got back from our hike and saw that market dropped an additional couple hundred points from where I left it. I should have put my orders in this morning for close of day

At least I can find some relief that with a mid seven figure portfolio, I was under six figure losses for the day.

 

[Bnk1]

In my opinion, the Fed has been propping up this market for years, with QE1, QE2, etc.. I don't think it is a coincidence that the S&P 500 has been basically flat since the last QE ended in October 2014. I see very little upside potential for this market in the near-term, and I think we have a lot further to fall. The huge drop in commodity prices (especially oil) and the problems China is having only add to the current volatile situation, IMO. If I had some spare cash that I wanted to put into the market, I would wait a while and see how this plays out before jumping in. I may be all wrong, but it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months or more.

I'm going to watch this one from the sidelines, for now anyway.

I'm with you on this sentiment opinion. I went to All Cash this past Wed after the Fed minutes were released and trading became volatile. Sold at the pop around SPY 209. Saved me over $200k of paper losses but I agree more room to fall. 1850 S&P could come quickly. That's where I would start buying if 1950 doesn't hold on Monday


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[papadad111]

On Friday I moved as follows:

Out of cash. into:

$100k into Russell 2000 fund (401k)
200K into VTI
30k into ERX. 3x bull oil

It was promising to see the wash out late in the day on triple witching and hitting a real 10 percent by the books correction on Friday. Best of all, it was all bears on CNBC !!

I don't think we're in store for a black Monday but if yes, I will do yet some more buying. It's no 1987 crash yet but a buy oppy if it does fall another 5-10 percent.

Long term buy and hold on all this except ERX which is a total net/value play gamble that is at 6 year lows.

The other buys are all are solid dividend yields despite what mr market throws at us near term.

I'm about 8 percent cash / bonds now, more fully invested in equities than I normally like. Usually I like 80/20 AA but been waiting for a real 10 percent pullback for 4 years to buy more equities and I had previously missed some dividends.

 

[Fermion]

I'm with you on this sentiment opinion. I went to All Cash this past Wed after the Fed minutes were released and trading became volatile. Sold at the pop around SPY 209. Saved me over $200k of paper losses but I agree more room to fall. 1850 S&P could come quickly. That's where I would start buying if 1950 doesn't hold on Monday


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If you saved $200k losses by selling, that was a lot of money you have had invested. The tax man wants to talk with you around April 2016

 

[Fermion]

If the market rout continues on Monday, I am focusing on just two stocks and abandoning the index for further investing. Apple and Gilead.

Two of the best values in the market and both getting sold off along with the real crap.

Apple is no Nokia and has more money in the bank than a small country.

Gilead makes $15B a year profit on 29B in revenue.

Poor people buy the best phone and poor people get sick.

 

[aja8888]

If the market rout continues on Monday, I am focusing on just two stocks and abandoning the index for further investing. Apple and Gilead.

Two of the best values in the market and both getting sold off along with the real crap.

Apple is no Nokia and has more money in the bank than a small country.

Gilead makes $15B a year profit on 29B in revenue.

Poor people buy the best phone and poor people get sick.

Ditto...they are bargains at even these prices.

 

[34rlsa]

If you like AAPL at this level... why not sell November puts at say $95 and reduce your cost even more?

 

[Fermion]

If you like AAPL at this level... why not sell November puts at say $95 and reduce your cost even more?

$4.27 isn't a bad return on a $91 investment actually (for ~3 months).

That is 4.7% or 20% annualized.

Then again, a greedy person might think they could buy Apple at $105 and sell it for $120 in November, making a 14.2% return or 68% annualized. Plus they get a small dividend.

 

[utrecht]

I'm with you on this sentiment opinion. I went to All Cash this past Wed after the Fed minutes were released and trading became volatile. Sold at the pop around SPY 209. Saved me over $200k of paper losses but I agree more room to fall. 1850 S&P could come quickly. That's where I would start buying if 1950 doesn't hold on Monday


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I call BS on this. There have plenty of days "when trading became volatile", but this is the one particular day you decided to sell everything? Then you waited until after you saw that we had the worst back to back days in over 5 years to come here and post about your absolutely perfect timing? Call me skeptical, but Im not buying it.

 

[LOL!]

I call BS on this.

Yes, the spirit of this Newsletter is to post trades before they occur or at least within minutes of the trade orders executing.

 

[samclem]

I call BS on this. There have plenty of days "when trading became volatile", but this is the one particular day you decided to sell everything? Then you waited until after you saw that we had the worst back to back days in over 5 years to come here and post about your absolutely perfect timing? Call me skeptical, but Im not buying it.

FWIW, Bnk1 mentioned on 19 Aug that he/she went to all cash that day. Not in this thread, so that makes it trickier . . .

When I first started investing in the mid-80s, I subscribed to a (by mail) newsletter with a number of model portfolios of low-cost MFs. They had a great track record. After the big 1987 "Black Friday" crash, I looked at the next newsletter and found that they'd reduced their equity positions a lot during the days before the decline. How convenient. And how were subscribers supposed to confirm that? And how were we to know to sell our positions like they had? At that point I figured out how their model portfolios and timing had done so well, and I came a step closer to indexing.

 

[Running_Man]

Yes, the spirit of this Newsletter is to post trades before they occur or at least within minutes of the trade orders executing.

Technically you don't actually post trades as a trade requires the time volume and price and you only provide price and time.

 

[Bnk1]

FWIW, Bnk1 mentioned on 19 Aug that he/she went to all cash that day. Not in this thread, so that makes it trickier . . .

When I first started investing in the mid-80s, I subscribed to a (by mail) newsletter with a number of model portfolios of low-cost MFs. They had a great track record. After the big 1987 "Black Friday" crash, I looked at the next newsletter and found that they'd reduced their equity positions a lot during the days before the decline. How convenient. And how were subscribers supposed to confirm that? And how were we to know to sell our positions like they had? At that point I figured out how their model portfolios and timing had done so well, and I came a step closer to indexing.

Yes check the other thread where I was posting my actions in nearly real time... Quite lucky to be sitting on 2.95M cash right now after others on here were trying to convince to get back in!! Sometimes you just have to follow your gut and experience and luck doesn't hurt . I'll post screenshots if necessary to protect my reputation but the other thread should detail sufficiently the actions I have taken.


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[Fermion]

Yes check the other thread where I was posting my actions in nearly real time... Quite lucky to be sitting on 2.95M cash right now after others on here were trying to convince to get back in!! Sometimes you just have to follow your gut and experience and luck doesn't hurt . I'll post screenshots if necessary to protect my reputation but the other thread should detail sufficiently the actions I have taken.


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How much tax will you owe or did the 2.95M not participate in the runup we have had the past few years?

 

[Bnk1]

How much tax will you owe or did the 2.95M not participate in the runup we have had the past few years?

My taxable account is essentially a trading account so I have perhaps $20k of gains so far in 2015 as I sold before drawing Down on positions. So I do not have years of capital gains to settle ...


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[LOL!]

Well, it looks like I bought too soon. Unless someone convinces me otherwise, I think I will buy too soon again later today.

 

[LOL!]

OK, I started buying. Bought more EWX (tell me I'm crazy).

 

[utrecht]

I sold Jun'16 SPY 191 puts for $16.70 when the VIX hit 45

 

[LOL!]

Bought same amount of VTI as on last Friday. I will take a rest now until closer to the market close.

 

[utrecht]

I sold Jun'16 SPY 191 puts for $16.70 when the VIX hit 45

This was meant to be a long term trade. My plan was told hold to expiration since I seriously doubt SPY will be below 191 next June, but it recovered so fast that I bought the puts back at a 20% profit. Sold the puts for $16.70. Bought back at $13.40. 20% of the max profit of a 9 month trade in 2 hours was hard to pass up. I'll re-enter this trade if we sink again later in the day.

 

[LOL!]

Bought more VTI (total US stock market index) and submitted an order to buy VFIAX (S&P500 index fund). I just used proceeds from selling bond funds which are up today.

If things keep dropping then I think I will probably keep buying every day until I am allocated 100% to equities. If things go up even 2%, then I am selling.

And I haven't even started to do any tax-loss harvesting exchanges, but have made sure not to buy anything that would interfere with TLH exchanges in the near future.

 

[Fermion]

I actually sold 200 shares of VTI for $100.50 when the market recovered, then near the end of the day I entered a call spread on Gilead by buying 20 Jan 2016 $90 calls and selling 20 Nov 2015 $105 calls for $9.50.

I think we are at enough of a bottom that this trade will profit me way more than holding onto the VTI. At $105 the trade is a 55% profit by November.

 

[NW-Bound]

I was back in town after the market close, and just now look at my positions. Had I have Internet access, I would most likely follow the market but not making any buy or sell.

On Friday, the ETF that hit my buy limit order by dropping 9% went on to drop another 12% today. I am not going to throw good money after bad.

If the market rout continues on Monday, I am focusing on just two stocks and abandoning the index for further investing. Apple and Gilead.

But you never were an indexer, were you?