LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

The positive of today is that the bond ETF shares I sold dropped lower by the close and the things I bought closed higher. So I am not any worse off than if I had done nothing. Well, at least until tomorrow.

 

[Senator]

Does this mean you're going to rob a 7-11 or that you are going to shoot yourself?

Guns and bullets are the universal currency... The Glocks are great. I will probably sell a few, but I can see where a person could use 5-6 anyway.

Redduck, didn't you see another thread where he posted about just buying 10 Glocks? Me hoping he's not going on a rampage.

Absolutely no rampage. I know they do not spoil. I plan on doing some shooting at the range after I retire. I have quite a few guns that I have never shot, and need to. Taking a 2-day defensive handgun class at FrontSight in October.

I did "pull the trigger" and buy my September ETF allocation a bit early. 57 shares of IVV at $192.50. It looked like a great buy, until it wasn't. In the long run, it doesn't matter what timing you use, just as long as you make regular investments.

My AA is mostly stocks, with ~10% in cash. The rest is split ~40% equities, 60% real estate equity.

My dividends should be ~$1,500+ a month upon retiring, and this purchase will help that along. I think I will regret working this OMY, but getting out at 56, making well more than my salary at work with the rental income, is still not bad. It gives me time to mentally prepare for my retirement.

I prefer the market to be up, but we were long overdue for a correction. Nothing has fundamentally changed from a week ago. What was good a week ago is still good today. Market history says to keep the faith and press on.

And I welcome any bounce, including a dead cat bounce.

 

[utrecht]

Sold weekly SPY 188.5 puts for $2. Made the trade a bit too early when SPY was trading at 193

 

[Fermion]

But you never were an indexer, were you?

50% of our net worth is in a 401K invested in two Vanguard US value and growth funds.

15% is in our paid off house

15% is in cash

5% in IRA

The last 15% is what I trade in taxable and I have well over half of that in index funds. I just meant I am not buying more index funds on a dip, I am buying certain stocks that are better than the index.

 

[LOL!]

Futures are looking great Tuesday morning. I'm thinking about submitting some limit orders before the market opens to try to catch unsuspecting folks into buying shares from me at inflated prices. If the orders are not executed, then I will just sell at the prevailing prices.

So if anybody is awake, should I go 10% higher from here since futures are up at least 4%? Or 6%? 8%?

 

[Senator]

Futures are looking great Tuesday morning. I'm thinking about submitting some limit orders before the market opens to try to catch unsuspecting folks into buying shares from me at inflated prices. If the orders are not executed, then I will just sell at the prevailing prices.

So if anybody is awake, should I go 10% higher from here since futures are up at least 4%? Or 6%? 8%?

If the market gaps open, it is likely to fill the gap. Odds are, the open will be the strongest opportunity to sell, for today. Go with a market order, protected by a limit amount just under the market. (i.e. put your limit order just under market)

 

[LOL!]

Ah, you mean place a marketable limit order just at the open when one sees a few trades.

I can submit some ridiculous orders beforehand and modify them as needed, too.

 

[LOL!]

OK, did sell at the open and market tended downward, so I got 1% more than a few minutes later.

Since the things I bought yesterday are up 2.5% to 5%, I will be placing more orders to unwind all those trades. For those following this action, I will not be selling the exact same shares I bought, but I will sell substantially identical shares that are already long settled in the same accounts or in different accounts. This is because the purchases were in tax-advantaged accounts that were not margin accounts.

A specific example: I bought VTI yesteday and sold shares of VTI purchased earlier in the year. I pay no commissions and there are no tax consequences in this tax-advantaged account.

 

[utrecht]

Sold weekly SPY 188.5 puts for $2. Made the trade a bit too early when SPY was trading at 193

Normally when I sell weekly puts, I almost always hold til expiry and whatever happens happens. Odds are severely on my side because so much of the premium is time value. In this case because of severe volatility I may close early. Right now the puts I sold for $2 are worth $1.57. If I can buy them back for $1 today I will. If I cant I will see what tomorrow holds.

Also day traded BBY at the open. I day trade stocks in the first 30 mins after the open when they release earnings. These are very large trades relative to my other trades and I am looking to scalp 0.5% or more profit in a few mins. Made 1% this morning in 2 mins. I shorted BBY at 34.30 and bought to close at 34.

 

[Fermion]

I made mid 4 figures on Gilead (bought Monday, sold today) but not nearly the amount I would have made if I had gotten up 5 minutes earlier and not gone to the bathroom first.

Lesson learned. Always check the market before sitting on the throne.

 

[utrecht]

I was going to buy back the weekly puts I sold if they dropped to $1 but changed my mind. Instead, I turned them into a spread. When SPY was at about 194.10 the 188.5's were worth $1. Instead of buying them back and taking my profit, I bought an equal number of weekly 184.5's for .50 giving me a 188.5/184.5 spread. Now my max profit is $1.50 if SPY closes above 188.50 on Friday.

 

[NW-Bound]

I start to nibble a bit on Emerging Market stocks. Just a bit. I sold these earlier and buying them back cheaper now makes this market timer happy, even if I sold far below the top, and may be buying them back too soon.

The world economy situation is still very unsettled, so there is no hurry. There will be more chances.

 

[LOL!]

I had an action plan of 6 sell trades that I wanted to do today, but with market prices fading, I have completed only 0.5 leaving 5.5 of them still to do. I think I will just wait another day or so.

I guess this post is my effort to try to talk the market back up this afternoon.

 

[NW-Bound]

Speaking of market timing, I prefer not having to do it and just sit on my stocks and live my life happily without concerns.

But the problem is caused by other investors, who clamor for stocks in good times, then dump them when they are in fear. So, what's for me to do, other than to oblige?

I am not that successful at selling at the top, nor calling the bottom, but I always try my best to sell some when people are clamoring, and buy when they were stampeding to get out. Would that not be a civic duty?

If you make money trading, you are actually helping the market to restore balance. If you lose money, you are destabilizing it. I want to be a good citizen and to be helpful.

 

[utrecht]

I had a bad feeling the big selloff at the close was coming which is why I spread my weekly SPY trade. I really didnt think it would be THAT bad though. There hasnt been a down day after a huge gap up at the open since 2008 and that is a REALLY bad sign.

 

[Fermion]

It was an amazing drop at the end. I tried getting back into the exact Gilead position I had sold this morning but it didn't fill. Tomorrow is another day. Due to my machinations today, I gained $6500 in a $120,000 account on a day where the DOW ended down $200. Still a drop in the bucket compared to overall net worth losses but it does for some reason cheer me up.

 

[LOL!]

If the market gaps open, it is likely to fill the gap. Odds are, the open will be the strongest opportunity to sell, for today. Go with a market order, protected by a limit amount just under the market. (i.e. put your limit order just under market)

The "strongest opportunity" turned out to be true, so THANKS very much for responding to my post this morning.

I did a video capture of my trading platform screen for the minute or so bordering the market open, so that I could see later what happened at the opening cross. It was quite enlightening to me, so I learned something that I didn't know, too.

 

[NW-Bound]

... I gained $6500 in a $120,000 account on a day where the DOW ended down $200. Still a drop in the bucket compared to overall net worth losses but it does for some reason cheer me up.

Hey, every bit of gain helps.

I went out for an errand, come back just now and see that the dead-cat bounce fizzled out and the market ended in the red again. My meager international charity attempt to help the emerging markets was woefully inadequate, and that ETF petered out.

Good thing I did not fire off my ammo in single shots and not machine gun bursts. Isn't this fun or what?

 

[Mulligan]

Hey, every bit of gain helps.

I went out for an errand, come back just now and see that the dead-cat bounce fizzled out and the market ended in the red again. My meager international charity attempt to help the emerging markets was woefully inadequate, and that ETF petered out.

Good thing I did not fire off my ammo in single shots and not machine gun bursts. Isn't this fun or what?

NW, I have to man up an admit I caved. I sold 10k of Total Stock today after I said I would hold my ground. I would have sold a helluva lot more but I have to stay under my AGI to get my 2k tax credit. I use average cost basis so every sell still is a capital gain. I am putting the pencil to the paper and see if I can squeeze $5k more. If I could just sell the more recent purchases I could also sell losers but I don't want to create a tax mess.
I knew I was a light weight so kept my total amount in common stocks at 25%. But if I knew how weak I really was I would have already been 100% in utility preferreds.


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[Fermion]

Mulligan, I would not go 100% in anything. Maybe there is some danger in the utility preferreds you are not seeing or has not been seen before (some policy change or shift).

 

[NW-Bound]

NW, I have to man up an admit I caved...

So, it was you! You, you, who sold out to the devil.



Just kidding.

A guy's got to do what he's comfortable with. Perhaps tomorrow, I will regret not joining you.

Nah! I lost 50% in the tech rout of 2000-2003. In 2008-2009, I lost 37%. So far, there's nothing in the fundamentals to indicate a repeat of the previous two market sell-offs. But if there is, well, been there, done that.

If "this time is different", I still have my class C for housing of last resort. Me worry?

 

[Mulligan]

Fermion, I 100% agree with you a normal investor shouldn't. But I don't use my investments to live on. I trust my pension fund manager to professionally run my retirement as I know I couldn't handle it! I only invest in transmission and distribution utilities. No power... They are all "fenced in" from parent company with guaranteed ROE. In fact the ones I have most of my money in are getting a bonus ROE from the Feds for improving infrastructure. The grid will always need to be protected and they are already circling the wagons concerning "off the griders". They don't care who they get the power from whether it be nuke, wind, coal, or solar as they are "pass through" entities. And as 1% of the capital structure wedged in between bonds and stocks there is a lot of common divis that have to dry up before they can come after me.
That being said I definitely understand where you are coming from!


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[Mulligan]

So, it was you! You, you, who sold out to the devil.



Just kidding.

A guy's got to do what he's comfortable with. Perhaps tomorrow, I will regret not joining you.

Nah! I lost 50% in the tech rout of 2000-2003. In 2008-2009, I lost 37%. So far, there's nothing in the fundamentals to indicate a repeat of the previous two market sell-offs. But if there is, well, been there, done that.

If "this time is different", I still have my class C for housing of last resort. Me worry?

You in the long run, NW are the smart one. I just cant help it. I can go drop $1k on a bet in Vegas and lose it and not bat an eye as it comes out of my gambling fund. But losing $1k in the stock market? It really
pi$$es me off!!! I cant help it....

But yet....After I get off the Vanguard suspension list in October, I will dutifully contribute my $500 a month again.

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[NW-Bound]

I am completely the reverse. The few times I went to Vegas, it was to look around and not to gamble. I believe the most I ever dropped in a slot machine was $10 one such visit, and I just wanted to lose all those quarters quickly for the game to be over. If I lost as much as $100, I would be pissed, but I didn't lose because I don't gamble. Note they used real quarters then, not playing by electronic cards.

On the other hand, the market has been doing me well even though I am not a good market timer. Looking at my stash now, even with a $200K hair cut and what I have spent, I can see that there's no way I could have saved up that much money (I kept no records of my savings through my work life), so much of it must have come from the market.

Maybe one of these days, it "will be different this time", and my life will be irreversibly changed (cue the class C motorhome ). But for now, I just try to do what has worked, that is to buy low, and sell high.

 

[Mulligan]

I am completely the reverse. The few times I went to Vegas, it was to look around and not to gamble. I believe the most I ever dropped in a slot machine was $10 one such visit, and I just wanted to lose all those quarters quickly for the game to be over. If I lost as much as $100, I would be pissed, but I didn't lose because I don't gamble. Note they used real quarters then, not playing by electronic cards.

On the other hand, the market has been doing me well even though I am not a good market timer. Looking at my stash now, even with a $200K hair cut and what I have spent, I can see that there's no way I could have saved up that much money (I kept no records of my savings through my work life), so much of it must have come from the market.

Maybe one of these days, it "will be different this time", and my life will be irreversibly changed (cue the class C motorhome ). But for now, I just try to do what has worked, that is to buy low, and sell high.

I agree with you, but loss aversion has really hit me hard in retirement. Having a nice pension probably doesn't help that attitude either I imagine. Besides Im stuck with the fund anyways. I am not losing my 2k tax credit over capital gains and paying those taxes on top of the loss of the tax credit.
As far as the gambling goes, NW....It is only sports betting I have been to Vegas 50 times and still haven't put a penny in a slot. I have been betting way longer than I have been investing. I had to talk the principal out of a spanking when the teacher busted my gambling ring. She noticed the line in front of my desk exchanging quarters and dollars. I was the bookie!


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