Not loving the up and up of the markets

[Lawrencewendall]

The stock to short is the one I just bought!

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

I don't know but it feels like a sideways stock market. I mean the SP500 was up last year like 9%. 2015 was completely flat. This year up over 6% but maybe we will get some kind of catalyst that will either move the market big time to the upside or downside. Who knows? This is why I dollar cost average since I do not ever know which way the market will turn. It feels like a sideways market to me, but in reality it is up so far this year. A slow grind higher.

 

[W2R]

I don't know but it feels like a sideways stock market. I mean the SP500 was up last year like 9%. 2015 was completely flat. This year up over 6% but maybe we will get some kind of catalyst that will either move the market big time to the upside or downside. Who knows? This is why I dollar cost average since I do not ever know which way the market will turn. It feels like a sideways market to me, but in reality it is up so far this year. A slow grind higher.

True, it does seem slow on some days like yesterday when my portfolio only went up a little bit. Still, it almost always seems to go up instead of down. I think dollar cost averaging is a very reasonable way to handle the uncertainty. I have done a lot of that at various times in my life.

Remember 2008-2009? Those changes seemed so fast, as our portfolios dropped. I'm so glad we aren't going through that, at least not yet. I'm ready, though, whenever it happens again the next time. The market has been awfully good since I retired (in late 2009) and surely this can't continue forever.

 

[pb4uski]

Just rebalanced. I find I am rebalancing more frequently as a guard against a sharp correction... keeping my cash topped up to my target of 5%. In this most recent rebalancing I sold international and emerging market equities which have had strong runs and actually bought domestic equities and domestic bonds.

 

[NW-Bound]

If I could be sure that the market was going to be flat, I could get 12% return a year by writing covered calls on the S&P. I have been doing that, but not on the entire stash.

 

[W2R]

If I could be sure that the market was going to be flat, I could get 12% return a year by writing covered calls on the S&P. I have been doing that, but not on the entire stash.

I am sure you are right.

Have you ever heard that old saying, "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride!"? Well, I think it applies. If we knew what the market was going to do, every one of us would be very, very rich.

The same is true for media finance gurus, which is why I don't believe any of their predictions about what the market will do.

 

[Scuba]

hahahaha , too funny, i have the same luck

[emoji23]

 

[ulvazell]

Don't worry. Stocks should be imploding in about a week. I recently came into a wad of cash which I am fixing to plow into the market. That usually does the trick.

It should rain tomorrow too as I'm about to wash my car... LOL

 

[easysurfer]

I'm waiting for the market to tumble.

Not that I want the market to and I'm not going to change my investing strategy any no matter what happens. But looking at all the turmoil in the world reminds me of a game of Jenga. Don't know when, but somethings got to give and when that happens, will be a good tumble .

 

[Fedup]

I finally looked at my account, I'm actually have higher AA ratio for stocks then I thought I had. I've been relying on Vanguard to tell me my cash position. But I'm getting nervous, it seems too easy to make money.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

I'm waiting for the market to tumble.

Not that I want the market to and I'm not going to change my investing strategy any no matter what happens. But looking at all the turmoil in the world reminds me of a game of Jenga. Don't know when, but somethings got to give and when that happens, will be a good tumble .

One would think we would be due for a big tumble in stocks. It doesn't necessarily have to be that way. We could go sideways for years. Earnings could take off and the market could lose its multiple. My solution to all this is dollar cost averaging.

 

[easysurfer]

One would think we would be due for a big tumble in stocks. It doesn't necessarily have to be that way. We could go sideways for years. Earnings could take off and the market could lose its multiple. My solution to all this is dollar cost averaging.

Agree. Doesn't have to be that way. That's why I'm a buy and hold, rebalance to AA and DCA investor too. But my gut says Jenga .

 

[W2R]

I'm ready for anything. Or at least I think I am.

Friday the sum of my (conservative) investments plus bank accounts was the highest it has been since I bought my house. Only $36K below my all time high, just before that on 4/24/2015. I would be thrilled if this bull market kept up long enough to reach that all time high again.

But at this stage, it wouldn't be surprising if we had another crash soon.

 

[Corporateburnout]

A market downturn is to be expected if you invest in stocks. Maintaining an AA that reflects one's risk tolerance and having enough cash on hand for two to three years of living expenses is the prudent action to take.

Having said that, it will be a different experience for us in retirement than in 2008 when we were still accumulating and buying stocks on a discount.

 

[DrRoy]

I'm waiting for the market to tumble.

Not that I want the market to and I'm not going to change my investing strategy any no matter what happens. But looking at all the turmoil in the world reminds me of a game of Jenga. Don't know when, but somethings got to give and when that happens, will be a good tumble .

I'm a contrarian. Pessimism is good.

 

[W2R]

What a nice boost we got from today's market surge upwards! I love it.

I ordered some sandals that I don't even need, just on a whim. Hey, how many chance in life do we have to celebrate market highs like this? Might as well dance a step or two.

 

[Lsbcal]

What a nice boost we got from today's market surge upwards! I love it.

I ordered some sandals that I don't even need, just on a whim. Hey, how many chance in life do we have to celebrate market highs like this? Might as well dance a step or two.

Oh no, this is clearly a market top. Sandals you don't need? What were you thinking W2R?

 

[RobbieB]

I keep trying to order sandals that I don't need but they are out of stock on my size.

 

[W2R]

Ha ha!! I know, it's so nutty for someone like me to just order sandals like that when I already have some. These are supposed to be really soft and comfy (as opposed to my Birkenstocks which are definitely not), so we'll see.

Robbie, I'll bet if you look on Amazon you'll find a different kind of sandals that you don't really need, that are in your size? The world is filled with a plethora of sandals we don't really need, in as many sizes and colors as there are stars in the sky.

On top of everything else, my cholesterol meds just went generic! My doctor has insisted on a type that were not available in generic, until this month. I am saving $104/month compared with the non-generic. Things like this never happen when the market is crashing. So now I guess the stage is set for the Big Crash.

I am SO ready for the crash, if/when it comes. C'mon, Mr. Market! Hit me with all you've got. Go ahead, I DARE you.

 

[Another Reader]

"I am SO ready for the crash, if/when it comes. C'mon, Mr. Market! Hit me with all you've got. Go ahead, I DARE you."

Uh-oh....

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

"I am SO ready for the crash, if/when it comes. C'mon, Mr. Market! Hit me with all you've got. Go ahead, I DARE you."

Uh-oh....

I read today that the market fell at least 20% twice since the bull market began in March 2009. The first time was from April 2011 to November 2011. The second time was from May 2015 to Feb 2015. If this is true, then we had two bear markets since the March 2009 bull market began. It also means that the current bull market did not begin until February 2015. We may get corrections , but we may not get an epic downturn.

 

[W2R]

I read today that the market fell at least 20% twice since the bull market began in March 2009. The first time was from April 2011 to November 2011. The second time was from May 2015 to Feb 2015. If this is true, then we had two bear markets since the March 2009 bull market began. It also means that the current bull market did not begin until February 2015. We may get corrections , but we may not get an epic downturn.

Well, here's a graph of the Dow from March 2009 until now. Sure, it's not a straight inclined line upwards but I wouldn't (and didn't) get all upset at this progression from then until now.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

Well, here's a graph of the Dow from March 2009 until now. Sure, it's not a straight inclined line upwards but I wouldn't (and didn't) get all upset at this progression from then until now.

Oh , I will take it! It has come a long ways for sure. If a big downturn does happen, I will continue on as always, as I can do no other. I didn't mean to put a downer on things, I just like to look at things as they are.

 

[audreyh1]

I read today that the market fell at least 20% twice since the bull market began in March 2009. The first time was from April 2011 to November 2011. The second time was from May 2015 to Feb 2015. If this is true, then we had two bear markets since the March 2009 bull market began. It also means that the current bull market did not begin until February 2015. We may get corrections , but we may not get an epic downturn.

No, that didn't happen. I would remember!

We've had a few corrections, but nothing exceeded 20%.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

No, that didn't happen. I would remember!

We've had a few corrections, but nothing exceeded 20%.

You could be absolutely right. I do not know. Mark Hulbert from market watch says the stock market fell twice at least 20% since 2009. I am not saying it did. Mark Hulbert quotes Ned Davis research saying the stock market had two bear markets since 2009.