Stock Market "Experts" told us in 2012 that the market was over valued!

[target2019]

They're not wrong, they're early. ��

That makes sense, since they were late on the last one...

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

Stock market experts? What experts?

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

Everyone knows the stock market can't go up forever. We have had corrections since 2009. But if anyone actually knew what they were talking about they would be able to tell us when the downturn would happen and the severity of it. They can't do it. Why? Because they don't know. Don't we all know as much?

 

[Tallman4123]

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

-Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

 

[Johanson]

I had a 46% return in my 401K in 2012. It's now worth double what it was at the beginning of 2012. My 401K has been all in equities since 1990 except for the past year when I've been moving part of my company stock in and out of cash on dips and spikes in share price. I'm about to get a little more conservative though.

 

[braumeister]

It's true!
Experts have more expertise than the rest of us, according to experts.

 

[unclemick]

So, financial media is continually publishing reports of imminent disaster or gloom and doom, and they all turn out to be nothing more than "Chicken Little"? Shocking. What shall we do? what

Buy the Haystack at the lowest possible cost and do nothing except 'just stand there.'

Of course you could wiki John C. Bogle and send him a Christmas or Birthday card once in a while.



heh heh heh - And if the male hormones got ya - there's always pssst Wellesley/Wellington value combo.

 

[haha]

We'll poo-poo this until reality reasserts, which may not be long.

Then many members will disappear.

Which likely makes a difference mostly to them, but they will wonder what happened.

I saw a recent article(can't remember where. They are all meaningless) This article gave all sorts of reasons why high Shiller ratio, high S&P to GNP ratio, high price to sales and little growth don't matter. Either these ratios are meaningless, or are justified by very low interest rates. This is all crap, as we will find out in the fullness of time.

Ha

 

[COcheesehead]

I guess we're gonna see something, sometime.
Shiller PE Ratio

Good read.

Almanac Trader — Market Cracks on Frothy Sentiment

 

[target2019]

Good read.

Almanac Trader — Market Cracks on Frothy Sentiment

I fixed the illustration.

 

[harley]

We'll poo-poo this until reality reasserts, which may not be long.

Then many members will disappear.

Which likely makes a difference mostly to them, but they will wonder what happened.

I saw a recent article(can't remember where. They are all meaningless) This article gave all sorts of reasons why high Shiller ratio, high S&P to GNP ratio, high price to sales and little growth don't matter. Either these ratios are meaningless, or are justified by very low interest rates. This is all crap, as we will find out in the fullness of time.

Ha

What is the "this" we are poo-pooing? I'm not trying to give you a hard time, just not sure which of the above comments you are referring to. The OP, who is mocking the experts opinion and implying that the market will continue up forever? Or the experts saying we are over valued? I agree with that one myself. Caution is healthy.

 

[HadEnuff]

I'm "cautiously pessimistic"...

 

[gerntz]

When the markets get the shakes of even talk of a slight interest rate increase, I think they're overvalued, more so big dividend stocks than growth ones.

 

[ls99]

Seems to me the media has a need to fill air and print columns. So they drag up experts, brokers etc. to spout off.

IMHO brokers don't care if the public buys or sells, as long as they can jolt them into buying or selling as often as possible.

 

[stlguy57]

Ginned up negative news sells......

 

[dixonge]

We'll poo-poo this until reality reasserts, which may not be long.

Then many members will disappear.

Which likely makes a difference mostly to them, but they will wonder what happened.

One of the reasons I'm back in the market this year is from going back to 2008-09 and reading posts here. A lot of people just stood pat, bought as many new shares as they could and rode it all back up. Seeing their confidence was amazing.

Besides, the Bogle-ish folks don't discuss market timing that much here, so why would they disappear?

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. John Maynard Keynes

 

[mathjak107]

you have to look at the whole picture . this bull market is going in to 8 years . typically we have a 20% -50% drop just about every 7 years .

so it is not as much as stocks are expensive as they are running out of steam at a bad time .

dividends are up almost 38% . we have quite a few major s&p 500 company's paying out more in dividends than they earned .

basically these company's are saying here is your money back we just can't grow it .

they are doing very little capital spending to improve future productivity or increase market share .

what money they tend to spend has been going for stock buy backs not growing the business's .

earnings were down overall the last 4 quarters , so now you have less earnings and more money being given back un-used , un-invested as dividends .

so at this stage you have to ask yourself is it worth 5 or 6% in returns for risking a 20-50% loss ?

that is the real issue with stocks and the questions the big stock traders are asking themselves . suddenly a treasury bond at 1.50% looks damn good lol