Stock Picking ("Beat Boho") Contest

[easysurfer]

Stock and Fund Investors, show us your stuff ...

This is the thread for the "Beat Boho" stock picking contest. Click on the leader board link to sign up, see contest details and see who is up or down throughout the contest.

Leader Board: Stock Contest Status for "Beat Boho"


Last day to join is April 10, 2017.

Contest ends March 11, 2018.


Have fun participating and watching!


Note: Only virtual dollars used. Nothing on the line except your ego and bragging rights .

 

[Coolius]

Thanks for starting this thread, easysurfer.

Hope that this will be a fun activity to see how E-R members excel - or not - at investment selections and trading.

 

[easysurfer]

Thanks for starting this thread, easysurfer.

Hope that this will be a fun activity to see how E-R members excel - or not - at investment selections and trading.

You're welcome. Was Boho's idea to have the contest as it's own thread.

I hope it'll be a fun and educational experience too.

Glad the see the number of contestants growing.

 

[ERD50]

OK, admittedly totally silly and meaningless to draw any conclusions from a contest like this a few days in, but I just can't pass up the irony that our amazing stock&fund-picker-rock-paper-scissors-player-extraordinaire is dead last among the 12 players (and by a significant margin - the ten in the middle are within +/- 0.1%). Only the winner is farther out from the mean! What are the odds? Oh yeah, worse than a Rock Paper Scissors game!

-ERD50

 

[easysurfer]

We are just getting started out of the gates like in the Kentucky Derby. I'm next to bottom as of that chart, but the good news is only about $650 dollars separate the top to the bottom.

But Splitwdw's (maybe unintentional) strategy, of staying all cash might be hard to beat .

 

[Big_Hitter]

boho only down a few hundred...

 

[Boho]

I can't decide whether I like it that way so I can get far behind then beat everyone when I start trading or whether I should start trading stock now. I don't see myself being far behind for long though, so that won't work out. There's nothing flat out wrong with my portfolio. I doubt 11 out of the 12 people have better investments.

 

[RetiredGypsy]

In like Flynn.

 

[ERD50]

...
But Splitwdw's (maybe unintentional) strategy, of staying all cash might be hard to beat .

Well, there are certainly many one-year periods where cash far outperformed most investments. I would not make a one-time bet against cash in a one year game (though the averages are against it, so I would bet against it if I could place dozens of different bets).

I can't decide whether I like it that way so I can get far behind then beat everyone when I start trading or whether I should start trading stock now. ...

Ummm, holding back might be a strategy in a foot/car/horse race, but I fail to see how it can help a portfolio. Less to leverage later. But we shall see.

I don't see myself being far behind for long though,

You didn't see yourself being behind at all! This is easy, just pick good ones!

There's nothing flat out wrong with my portfolio. I doubt 11 out of the 12 people have better investments.

Well, the numbers say otherwise.

And yes, just a few days, so no real meaning (*). But the irony and excuses are just too good to pass up.

(*) in fact, even a one year look may not have much meaning. Any strategy can work for one year, or fail for one year. It's the long-long term that matters.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

As of a week ago I started believing I could beat the market if I trade and I still believe that. Before then I was all about the evidence of the superiority of index funds being less strong than people here say. Best I can figure is that my odds are better than 50/50 of beating an index fund, give or take, unless I trade and then it's no contest.

holding back might be a strategy in a foot/car/horse race, but I fail to see how it can help a portfolio. Less to leverage later. But we shall see.

I wasn't holding back as a strategy to help me win. I just wanted to see how my funds do if I don't touch them, and if I hold back there's more entertainment value if I come from behind, but I don't know what I'll do.

 

[Totoro]

Ok, I'll play! A bit limiting that we only can use three exchanges, that eliminates more than half my real portfolio, but oh well ..

[Edit] clunky interface and made a mistake right off the bat - oops. First order is nearly 100k, i wanted nearly 10k

 

[nun]

I bought VTSAX......that's it, I'm done for the year.

I'm dead last

Conclusion; indexing sucks.

 

[ERD50]

... Best I can figure is that my odds are better than 50/50 of beating an index fund, give or take, unless I trade and then it's no contest.

Ummm, but it is a contest! Are you saying you could win if you want to, but you don't really want to? This is crazy. C'mon, bring out the big guns! Trade away! Show us your stuff, don't hold back, you won't hurt our feelings.

-ERD50

 

[nun]

Is there a way to reinvest dividends?

edit.

I just found this on the site

How does this system handle dividends?
Dividends are not handled automatically, so you may need to Contact Us if you think you should have received a dividend. It will show up in your Trading History.

Not very "real world" if all you own is VTSAX. I'll just add whatever the dividend is after a year to my final total.

 

[NW-Bound]

I recall 20 years ago seeing contests like this being quite popular on the Web. Microsoft has one on the investor.msn.com site that I often read for stock news. Back then, the market was going gung ho, and people tried to beat each other in making money. Then, the tech bubble burst, and what the winner did was to manage to lose less than everybody else. It was not fun anymore, and the contest was discontinued.

I did not follow any contest, because I had my own stash to worry about and did not have time to worry about someone else's virtual stash.

But I will remember to check back here often, because I "know" many of the contestants. Boho is new here, and I do not know much about him, but he is an interesting guy.

 

[Fermion]

In these contests the only fun thing to do is go big or go home, so I am betting the whole shebang on JUNO in the hope that Gilead buys them out or they win a lawsuit against KITE

 

[Lawrencewendall]

I'm in!

 

[ERD50]

In these contests the only fun thing to do is go big or go home, so I am betting the whole shebang on JUNO in the hope that Gilead buys them out or they win a lawsuit against KITE

Yes!

It is that fact that gets me so aggravated when you hear about a contest like this in the news, usually from a grade school or high school class participation. The news will infer that the 'winner' was smarter than Wall Street or X% of 'pros', or whatever. But if I wanted to take a chance in a game like that, and there was some prize for 1st, 2nd, 3rd place, I'd also go "out there" and take on lots of risk. Ending up in the middle gets you nowhere. So risk it, you might win, but going average almost assures you 'lose' (the game - but that doesn't reflect real life).

But since in this case, losing big would be humiliating to me, I'll stick with my declaration (w/o bothering to formally enter the contest) that I'm all in with SPY. Easy to test after the fact.

edit --- BREAKING NEWS: Fermion just went from FIRST PLACE to LAST PLACE! (but it's early)

-ERD50

 

[exnavynuke]

Look at me out in first place now (with my complicated strategy of buying VTI)!

 

[Fermion]

edit --- BREAKING NEWS: Fermion just went from FIRST PLACE to LAST PLACE! (but it's early)

-ERD50

It is small cap biotech ERD50.

Expect Fermion to be last, first, last, first and then either broke or beating everyone by 100%

 

[ERD50]

It is small cap biotech ERD50.

Expect Fermion to be last, first, last, first and then either broke or beating everyone by 100%

That's exactly what I expect, and as I said, exactly the way to play the game to have a shot at 'winning'.

It wasn't a criticism, actually an acknowledgement that you know how to play the game. But I'd bet you wouldn't do that with your own money, on your entire portfolio.

hah! you are up to 4 out of 14, that's a fast moving stock! Although, it's looking like some of these portfolios are 100% mutual funds (not ETFs), so no price change until after market close.

-ERD50

 

[Coolius]

I'm just going to be playing the swing trading game with a few selected stocks.

Yes, if the objective is to win the game, I would put 100% on a counter with good buyout potential.

But I'm doing this as it closely parallels what I have in real life. Most of my portfolio being in income stocks, I play around with a portion of my assets just for some excitement in life.

 

[NW-Bound]

...But Splitwdw's (maybe unintentional) strategy, of staying all cash might be hard to beat .

Oh man! I hope the market does not crash, and the contest result gives more ammo to people who say one should keep it all under his mattress.

I've got actual, not virtual, money to lose.

 

[NW-Bound]

It is that fact that gets me so aggravated when you hear about a contest like this in the news, usually from a grade school or high school class participation. The news will infer that the 'winner' was smarter than Wall Street or X% of 'pros', or whatever...

Yes, in the heyday of the tech bubble of the late 90s, I saw on TV a thing like that too, where grade school kids were praised for their investment prowess. I thought the reporter was genuinely impressed too. It's scary.

 

[NW-Bound]

It wasn't a criticism, actually an acknowledgement that you know how to play the game. But I'd bet you wouldn't do that with your own money, on your entire portfolio.

Should the contest result be limited to active posters here? I mean we are all anonymous, but frequent posters have their reputation to lose.

Else, I would create two accounts. Account A, I buy the S&P options, and leverage it to the hilt on top of that. Account B, I short the S&P heavily.

At the end, I will reveal myself as the owner of the winning account of the two, and that it's the result of the most excellent strategy by NW-Bound.