Stocking Picking Contest - v3.0

[easysurfer]

Won't be long now!

With more diverse indexes, I'm ahead of the lazy total market index in the ranking .

 

[NYEXPAT]

I stopped playing last week, as I thought it went inactive as the only real competition quit after getting blown up on his volatility trade?

 

[Running_Man]

I stopped playing last week, as I thought it went inactive as the only real competition quit after getting blown up on his volatility trade?

Isn't this a two year contest? Quitting after a month?

 

[easysurfer]

Spudd back on top.

 

[Qs Laptop]

I was culling my old bookmarks and had forgotten all about this. Looks like I won by attrition. Still, almost 72% return in a smidge over 2 years ain't bad.

 

[ERD50]

I was culling my old bookmarks and had forgotten all about this. Looks like I won by attrition. Still, almost 72% return in a smidge over 2 years ain't bad.

View attachment 39685

So did it drop others for lack of activity?

Would have been interesting to see the performance of some of the 'talkers'.

Looks like VTI would have gone from $100,000 to $153,788, so you beat the index by a good amount. But did anyone else?

-ERD50

 

[Qs Laptop]

So did it drop others for lack of activity?

Would have been interesting to see the performance of some of the 'talkers'.

Looks like VTI would have gone from $100,000 to $153,788, so you beat the index by a good amount. But did anyone else?

-ERD50

I don't know why players were dropped. Maybe they withdrew from the contest?

I checked in on the contest maybe once a week through last fall or so. Over the summer of 2020 the number of participants was dwindling. I would guess the last time I looked would have been November and there were three or four players remaining.

There were several people that were handily beating the index. When there were 9 or 10 players I was usually in the top 5 spots and started moving up in spring of 2020. There were a couple players that put money into weed stocks and they got burned.

 

[Qs Laptop]

Hey I found some screen grabs I had made of the contest. Each contestant started with $100K back in May 2019. I didn't start playing until, June, IIRC.

Anyway here is a screen grab of the WEEKLY standings on September 16, 2019. It shows the players total balance and the rankings are by how much the player had gained that week. To get overall standings from this image you would simply rank players' balances from highest to lowest. Notice there were 14 players.




Here is a screen grab of the overall standings as of December 5, 2019. Now there are 10 players.

 

[Qs Laptop]

Here is a screen grab from February 19, 2020, before the market nosedived. Nine players now.





May 21, 2020, six players.




Finally, here is a screen grab from September 15, 2020, or exactly one year from my first screen grab (above) from September 2019 when there were fourteen players. Only two players now.

 

[braumeister]

The player "CMunger" was me, so I was doing pretty well. I guess I was dropped since I wasn't making any trades. Don't even remember what I had invested in.

 

[Qs Laptop]

The player "CMunger" was me, so I was doing pretty well. I guess I was dropped since I wasn't making any trades. Don't even remember what I had invested in.

Since we traded the lead often in this contest I would sometimes look at your portfolio. I think your best winner was some sort of financial instrument ETF. Or possibly some sort of commodity ETF. I wish I could be more specific, memory is hazy.

 

[ERD50]

There were several people that were handily beating the index.

Well, if I were a betting man, I'd bet that roughly half were beating the index

... Finally, here is a screen grab from September 15, 2020, or exactly one year from my first screen grab (above) from September 2019 when there were fourteen players. Only two players now.


View attachment 39692

Thanks, looks like you were really leaving the index in the dust. I see a little over 18% gain for VTI using this tool:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VTI

So you were at $141K vs ~ $118K for VTI. Nice.

Running_Man was lagging at this point, ~ $109.5K vs the $118K for VTI.

I stopped playing last week, as I thought it went inactive as the only real competition quit after getting blown up on his volatility trade?

Isn't this a two year contest? Quitting after a month?

Interesting. I guess NYEXPAT doesn't consider VTI "competition"? I do!

I really wanted to see how some of these traders did against VTI. Wish I had followed the thread closer, maybe I could have taunted some of them into staying active


edit/add: So I see that NYEXPAT says he quit in early JUNE2020, the last screenshot you have of him is from February 19, 2020, and there he is in the red over 9%, while VTI was up over 17%. No competition?

-ERD50

 

[Running_Man]

Well, if I were a betting man, I'd bet that roughly half were beating the index



Thanks, looks like you were really leaving the index in the dust. I see a little over 18% gain for VTI using this tool:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VTI

So you were at $141K vs ~ $118K for VTI. Nice.

Running_Man was lagging at this point, ~ $109.5K vs the $118K for VTI.





Interesting. I guess NYEXPAT doesn't consider VTI "competition"? I do!

I really wanted to see how some of these traders did against VTI. Wish I had followed the thread closer, maybe I could have taunted some of them into staying active


edit/add: So I see that NYEXPAT says he quit in early JUNE2020, the last screenshot you have of him is from February 19, 2020, and there he is in the red over 9%, while VTI was up over 17%. No competition?

-ERD50

Yes taunting is why this forum exists, you are the best at it. RM

 

[steelyman]

Yes taunting is why this forum exists, you are the best at it. RM

Sumbuddy’s gotta be the best at sumpin’ [emoji3]

 

[ERD50]

Yes taunting is why this forum exists, you are the best at it. RM

T'was a joke.

But with a serious side, I really would have liked to see if we ended up with something like a normal distribution around the index. Because, you know, there aren't enough studies already!

-ERD50

 

[Qs Laptop]

Thanks, looks like you were really leaving the index in the dust. I see a little over 18% gain for VTI using this tool:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VTI

When I click on your link I get the VTI chart from Oct 14, 2020 through July 30, 2021. The contest started on May 2, 2019 and the screen grab where I had $141K was from Sept. 15, 2020. Plug those endpoints in and I come up with a 14.6% gain for VTI.

So you were at $141K vs ~ $118K for VTI. Nice.

I get $141K vs. $114.6K for VTI. Nice.

If you take it out to today VTI has gained 57% and I'm up 74.1%.

Had someone invested solely in Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund, FBGRX, a large cap growth fund, they would be up 105%.

 

[ERD50]

When I click on your link I get the VTI chart from Oct 14, 2020 through July 30, 2021. The contest started on May 2, 2019 and the screen grab where I had $141K was from Sept. 15, 2020. Plug those endpoints in and I come up with a 14.6% gain for VTI.



I get $141K vs. $114.6K for VTI. Nice.

If you take it out to today VTI has gained 57% and I'm up 74.1%.

Had someone invested solely in Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund, FBGRX, a large cap growth fund, they would be up 105%.

Sorry, I should have mentioned to adjust the scrub bar (tedious), I'm not aware of any way to save the dates in a link.

Not all that important, but I still come up with 18.64% for those dates? Am I off somewhere? I'll try a screenshot:

edit: FYI: If I adjust the scrub bar for those exact start-end dates, I get the same result in case that threw you off. 347 trading days, 02MAY2019 - 15SEPT2020 18.64% another edit: And remember, that chart is total return, divs ( ~ 1.9% for VTI?) are reinvested


-ERD50