Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[Boho]

And yet, with this knowledge, you still dragged behind the market benchmark, with a 2.70% gain versus 5.33% for the market.

Just wait until you see next month's numbers. I dropped significantly today and I could easily see the SEC make the drop worse.

I'd personally cyber-hand the winner the prize. The rules are the rules. What I'd take from the results if I lost may be more than realization that "I lost" but you can take as little as you choose.

 

[Boho]

I just noticed everyone's tanking today. Your memo is my OSIS.

 

[exnavynuke]

When I was a "trader", there was a reason I had defined "exits" for both winning and losing scenarios. Allowing every pick to be a potential 100% loser makes it very, very, very, very, very, unlikely that you will have long-term success. Having positions with almost 50% losses open shows that you have no real risk management in your strategy. Without risk management you're almost assured to have a failing strategy. I've never met or heard of a long-term successful trader (as in positive, not necessarily beating the market) that didn't incorporate risk management planning and I've known/talked to a LOT of traders over the last couple decades.

 

[easysurfer]

I just noticed everyone's tanking today. Your memo is my OSIS.

The beauty of passive, index investing is when the market tanks, the index follows suit .

One of the reasons why I wanted the contest to go three years. So, we could illustrate different market conditions and how well (or not well) contestants adapt.

 

[Boho]

Allowing every pick to be a potential 100% loser makes it very, very, very, very, very, unlikely that you will have long-term success. Having positions with almost 50% losses open shows that you have no real risk management in your strategy.

I got out of Rite Aid when it dropped because I didn't see a likely up side but if something looks cheap I'll hold. Doesn't matter if I already lost 50% on it. DRAD is such a stock and I'm holding.

OSIS is a tougher one. It could take another two big hits but they're one-offs (a lawsuit and an SEC penalty.) The company seems to be doing well despite that. In real life I'd be thinking about selling but it's just a contest so I'm not going to worry about it. I believe in the company anyway, it's just that we only have two more years to the contest. They could drop another 25% at the end of the year and require more than a year to recover, or they could settle their lawsuit and be given a modest penalty by the SEC and recover quickly.

 

[easysurfer]

Boho, with the SP500 Stock Market Index in free fall the past couple days, shouldn't you be able to you reach in your special powers and rock, paper, scissors your way to zoom past all these dirty indexers in the contest?

Oh in case you haven't notice, I am being sarcastic .

 

[Boho]

Boho, with the SP500 Stock Market Index in free fall the past couple days, shouldn't you be able to you reach in your special powers and rock, paper, scissors your way to zoom past all these dirty indexers in the contest?

Oh in case you haven't notice, I am being sarcastic .

I think I dropped about $300 today and nunnun dropped about $40,000.

 

[easysurfer]

I think I dropped about $300 today and nunnun dropped about $40,000.

I moved up a notch from 13th to 12th place. Only dropped about $25K.

 

[Boho]

It was basically a drop over nothing. I probably should have bought. Worst case was we'd get some new FBI people and problem solved.

 

[Boho]

I was the smallest loser yesterday. I do better than the competition in a down market, just as I figured.

 

[ERD50]

I was the smallest loser yesterday. I do better than the competition in a down market, just as I figured.

It's a little hard to accept that as any sort of 'trend' - you have only a few holdings, and this is just one sample. There have been several dips from peaks since the contest began, if you plotted your portfolio against VTI, do you actually go up every time the market dips? Even though you had different holdings? Do you think this is predictable from this one event?

And probably more importantly, a strategy that only does better than the market when the market is down (w/o predicting the 'down days') is a recipe for failure (as we can see by your portfolio and standing so far). Are you actually betting the market will be down from it's start at the end in ~ 2 years, or that you have a huge multiplier on "down" and a lesser multiplier on "up"?

This isn't the "Beat Boho if the market is down Contest".

And the market is up 1.2% for the day as I type. Just sayin'.

EDIT: Hah, I just saw your wording more closely - you did 'less bad' on a down day (smallest loser). You have a lot of catching up to do.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

And the market is up 1.2% for the day as I type. Just sayin'.

So far my gains for today are about $10,000 above nunnun's. I expect to do at least as well as nunnun even in up markets but that's not evident by the totals so far.

 

[ERD50]

So far my gains for today are about $10,000 above nunnun's. I expect to do at least as well as nunnun even in up markets but that's not evident by the totals so far.

That's one way to put it!

A more direct way would be "Boho is losing, so far.".

The "totals so far" is all that matters. Your "expectations" do not matter. I'm sure you "expected" to be in the lead the whole time. Days don't really matter, the cumulative is what matters.

Oh well, see you at the end of the month...

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

That's one way to put it!

A more direct way would be "Boho is losing, so far.".

The "totals so far" is all that matters. Your "expectations" do not matter. I'm sure you "expected" to be in the lead the whole time. Days don't really matter, the cumulative is what matters.

Oh well, see you at the end of the month...

-ERD50

A lot matters in making predictions that you're discounting. The last day of the contest, when all you want to know is who won, is the only time the account totals are all that matters.

 

[ERD50]

A lot matters in making predictions that you're discounting. The last day of the contest, when all you want to know is who won, is the only time the account totals are all that matters.

Sure, as far as the contest goes, the last day is all that matters.

But I doubt anyone is going to be impressed by a picker who trailed for most of the contest, and then just had a pop right at the end. That's going to be looked at as luck.

I'll be far more impressed with anyone who managed to get ahead and stay ahead, even if they don't come out #1.

But we shall see. I highly doubt we will see your performance show a consistent improvement.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

But I doubt anyone is going to be impressed by a picker who trailed for most of the contest, and then just had a pop right at the end.

Of course. That's what I'm saying. I sell fast for small profits and I've been inching up pretty consistently for months with over 100 trades. My pops were downward for unusual reasons that are somewhat avoidable. I no longer load up on hard to liquidate stocks and now I know how to get around the inability to cancel market orders (don't place market orders).

 

[Boho]

I feel like I should use a volatility index or something to tell me when to start trading again. I don't know if I could identify good deals in a weird market.

 

[sengsational]

K$|counts|best|worst

Player|Rank|Value of All|Value of:Open|Cash Balance|Average Cash
comsecga|

1​

|

$1,493K​

|

$1,594K​

|

$-101K​

|

$-21K​

|
up98down34|

2​

|

$1,405K​

|

$1,398K​

|

$7K​

|

$149K​

|
Fermion1|

4​

|

$1,319K​

|

$721K​

|

$598K​

|

$687K​

|
exnavynuke|

3​

|

$1,318K​

|

$1,608K​

|

$-289K​

|

$-389K​

|
Totoro_ERF|

5​

|

$1,295K​

|

$1,312K​

|

$-18K​

|

$138K​

|
DieWurst|

6​

|

$1,190K​

|

$1,190K​

|

$0K​

|

$10K​

|
kite_rider|

8​

|

$1,154K​

|

$812K​

|

$342K​

|

$728K​

|
sengsational|

9​

|

$1,150K​

|

$1,143K​

|

$7K​

|

$32K​

|
nunnun|

7​

|

$1,149K​

|

$1,134K​

|

$16K​

|

$11K​

|
lbymfreddie|

10​

|

$1,126K​

|

$1,115K​

|

$11K​

|

$85K​

|
RISP|

11​

|

$1,117K​

|

$1,116K​

|

$1K​

|

$55K​

|
cfahey27|

12​

|

$1,105K​

|

$1,102K​

|

$4K​

|

$568K​

|
nvestysly|

13​

|

$1,068K​

|

$1,067K​

|

$2K​

|

$499K​

|
easysurfer|

14​

|

$1,067K​

|

$953K​

|

$115K​

|

$309K​

|
RiskyBusinessC2|

15​

|

$1,031K​

|

$807K​

|

$224K​

|

$652K​

|
Clone2|

16​

|

$1,010K​

|

$1,006K​

|

$3K​

|

$846K​

|
Spudd|

22​

|

$1,005K​

|

$1,008K​

|

$-2K​

|

$266K​

|
longshot345kv|

21​

|

$1,000K​

|

$0K​

|

$1,000K​

|

$1,000K​

|
garyweis|

20​

|

$1,000K​

|

$0K​

|

$1,000K​

|

$1,000K​

|
Gayl|

19​

|

$1,000K​

|

$0K​

|

$1,000K​

|

$1,000K​

|
MizRosie|

17​

|

$1,000K​

|

$0K​

|

$1,000K​

|

$1,000K​

|
lawrencewendall|

23​

|

$979K​

|

$1,621K​

|

$-641K​

|

$-513K​

|
BohoII|

24​

|

$976K​

|

$564K​

|

$412K​

|

$341K​

|
trashcan12|

26​

|

$915K​

|

$836K​

|

$79K​

|

$121K​

|
Fermion|

27​

|

$623K​

|

$359K​

|

$264K​

|

$711K​

|

|

Current Open|Long Trades|Short Trades|Option Trades|R/T Trades|R/T-Unique Stocks

6​

|

27​

|

4​

|

0​

|

11​

|

10​

|

4​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

1​

|

1​

|

16​

|

1​

|

0​

|

9​

|

4​

|

4​

|

12​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

3​

|

4​

|

7​

|

0​

|

0​

|

1​

|

1​

|

3​

|

8​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

6​

|

6​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

28​

|

108​

|

0​

|

0​

|

41​

|

31​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

4​

|

20​

|

0​

|

0​

|

6​

|

3​

|

11​

|

31​

|

6​

|

1​

|

11​

|

7​

|

4​

|

5​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

20​

|

23​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

3​

|

18​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

5​

|

2​

|

13​

|

4​

|

3​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

8​

|

90​

|

2​

|

3​

|

50​

|

31​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

8​

|

19​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

5​

|

227​

|

0​

|

0​

|

123​

|

63​

|

7​

|

9​

|

0​

|

0​

|

2​

|

1​

|

2​

|

2​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

0​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
SHOP|

$162K​

|

90%​

|
MNKD|

$281K​

|

131%​

|
NVDA|

$279K​

|

31%​

|
FAS|

$152K​

|

43%​

|
PII|

$94K​

|

37%​

|
VWO|

$95K​

|

19%​

|
ANET|

$109K​

|

58%​

|
SCMP|

$25K​

|

37%​

|
VOO|

$67K​

|

13%​

|
BOFI|

$234K​

|

48%​

|
BXC|

$43K​

|

62%​

|
AAPL|

$37K​

|

8%​

|
DE|

$20K​

|

40%​

|
VTI|

$38K​

|

11%​

|
EDF|

$9K​

|

2%​

|
DE|

$13K​

|

3%​

|
CNCE|

$66K​

|

31%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
SDYL|

$6K​

|

10%​

|
ANW|

$25K​

|

4%​

|
MNKD|

$18K​

|

133%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|

|

Ticker Stock|Gain Loss|Gain/Loss Percent
GIMO|

$-59K​

|

-21%​

|
O|

$11K​

|

4%​

|
ECYT|

$-37K​

|

-23%​

|
SOXL|

$-36K​

|

-7%​

|
DB|

$11K​

|

6%​

|
VEU|

$27K​

|

14%​

|
BABA|

$1K​

|

3%​

|
ICON|

$-23K​

|

-70%​

|
VTI|

$67K​

|

13%​

|
TEVA|

$-163K​

|

-51%​

|
XOM|

$-31K​

|

-15%​

|
MU|

$19K​

|

12%​

|
GE|

$-21K​

|

-39%​

|
BND|

$-9K​

|

-3%​

|
TICC|

$-1K​

|

-18%​

|
CAT|

$-5K​

|

-1%​

|
BB|

$-101K​

|

-20%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
none|

$0K​

|

?%​

|
FTR|

$-82K​

|

-41%​

|
RAD|

$-163K​

|

-26%​

|
DES|

$-104K​

|

-66%​

|
CLSN|

$-295K​

|

-60%​

|

Just getting back in front of the computer after vacationing.
The image is something from Excel, but I need a better way to graph over time. Can somebody find a web site where you can paste data like this:

:01/16/2018:01/20/2018:01/26/2018:02/14/2018:
garyweis:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:
sengsational:1130585.42:1152227.72:1184748.97:1149753.58:
Fermion:695045.02:704365.02:679905.02:622595.02:
Spudd:1075213.39:1095757.89:1123126.41:1005155.77:
easysurfer:1099152.9:1105666.83:1120288.4:1067290.2:
lawrencewendall:993172.93:1003154.97:1014930.96:978910.57:
BohoII:1031378.33:1017533.16:1031513.8:975626.78:
RISP:1095914.37:1130133.38:1164462.08:1116926.48:
exnavynuke:1414295.57:1453035.57:1519505.57:1318310.57:
Totoro_ERF:1329467.57:1369697.57:1411477.57:1294737.57:
nunnun:1188637.07:1203438.67:1228660.91:1149447.45:
DieWurst:1232888.83:1254769.61:1289343.29:1190476.68:
trashcan12:958767.68:964999.41:978660.92:915412.42:
lbymfreddie:1095750.24:1106728.52:1130696.24:1126417.14:
comsecga:1342355.41:1366196.21:1521167.01:1492889.61:
up98down34:1327642.51:1340800.01:1406387.51:1405446.01:
Fermion1:1258449.67:1288449.67:1328109.67:1318749.67:
RiskyBusinessC2:1040745.69:1051385.69:1074675.69:1030596.2:
cfahey27:1140360.4:1154900.4:1150221.4:1105449.4:
nvestysly:1108913.03:1117131.51:1152681.05:1068096.73:
MizRosie:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:
kite_rider:1125945.76:1154073.26:1189569.76:1153796.96:
longshot345kv:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:
Clone2:1066923.7:1079165.9:1072189.2:1009520.35:
Gayl:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:1000000.0:

 

[Boho]

I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest. There would be fewer volume issues with a lower starting value. What's the average amount forum members have in the market IRL? I see no reason people would tend to have $1,000,000 just because they're interested in early retirement.

 

[REWahoo]

I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest.

 

[ERD50]

And the beat goes on....

-ERD50

 

[harley]

I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest. There would be fewer volume issues with a lower starting value. What's the average amount forum members have in the market IRL? I see no reason people would tend to have $1,000,000 just because they're interested in early retirement.

Here's a poll that was done in 2016. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/whats-your-net-worth-81854-2.html 70% had between 1 and 5 Million. Next?

 

[easysurfer]

I think $1,000,000 was too high for this contest. There would be fewer volume issues with a lower starting value. What's the average amount forum members have in the market IRL? I see no reason people would tend to have $1,000,000 just because they're interested in early retirement.

The contest isn't rigged against you. Really, it is not .

I'm sure betters who didn't win in the Kentucky Derby also say there should be fewer horses running .

 

[Boho]

Here's a poll that was done in 2016. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/whats-your-net-worth-81854-2.html 70% had between 1 and 5 Million. Next?

Net worth is different. Would a person with a million dollar home tend to have a million invested too?

 

[sengsational]

When the contest started, I liked that it was $1M because then I could trade a lot and commissions wouldn't be much of a factor. But I must admit, I didn't think it was a realistic amount...probably none of us would not be "playing" with that much money. I got cornered by volume restrictions once, early on in the game. Then I learned that trading in the afternoon worked much better, and haven't had a problem since. But my bets are spread out across a lot of positions and I'm trading more like every month than every day.