The Bull Run will continue for years .. Cabot article

[W2R]

I absolutely, positively agree that this time it's different from all other times and that nothing will change until it changes. And, if this is the sort of thing you like, you'll like this sort of thing. On the other hand, we have 5 fingers.

+1000

 

[donheff]

As boomers age they become more conservative. I think that’s a trend worth watching.

Not all of us. In fact, almost all the lefties I know from the 60s are still pretty much the same, albeit some of them a bit more affluent and self satisfied.

 

[joeea]

Saw an article and I agree the bull run will continue for awhile.. another 10 years or so perhaps.

10 years?

Patterns are fun. Round numbers too.

What are you doing now to take advantage of your 10 year prediction? I assume you are 100% in stocks?

 

[kgtest]

If the unemployment rate wasn't at an all time low, I would worry. One thing that concerns me is the amount of consumer debt we have right now. It's dominoes right... people take there money out of the market for three reasons (that I know of)...


1. They need the money
2. Fear and Panic
3. RMD


I only worry about #1 and #2, and usually 1 is the driver of 2 even if uncorrelated. FOMO, or 'everyone is doing it mentality'. I almost don't even fear #2, because eventually those folks realize they are ACTUALLY missing out by being OUT of the market. Eventually if you pulled the money for fear and panic, you would look around and say, okay where else can I beat inflation...and back in goes the dough.


Okay maybe there is a #4, death.

 

[sengsational]

"Things are going great, and they're only getting better
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades"

I saw a live performance of this couple in grad school. Being an optimist, this really hit home with me.

 

[NW-Bound]

I was done with grad school in 1980, and missed this altogether. I only discovered this couple and their one-hit wonder a few years ago.

The song is actually sarcastic, as explained by Pat McDonald.

 

[IMATERP]

When I see thread starters like this - it simply reminds me that we are one day closer to the next "bear market."

The important thing is to recognize that I am comfortable with my investment allocation in any type of market.

I

 

[beowulf]

“people take there money out of the market for three reasons (that I know of)...
1. They need the money
2. Fear and Panic
3. RMD”

I agree with numbers 2 and 3, but #1, especially for posters on RE, is questionable. Lots of us are retired (not sure as to the percentage) and using our savings, including IRAs, has been part of our plan all along. We don’t “need” to travel, buy things we always wanted but couldn’t afford as we were in the savings mode, or just enjoy life to its fullest. Unless someone desires to enrich their children with a large inheritance, it’s a lot better to enjoy life while you have it. It’s sort of like Scrooge in the Christmas Carol - he was so obsessed with building and holding his own wealth that he avoided spending on anything until it was almost too late. If you’re not going to start spending down in your 60s or 70s, when will you? Sure, those who retired in their 30s, 40s and 50s may be in a different position, but I believe very early retirements are a small percentage of our posters. My view may be heresy to some here, but each to his or her own.

 

[pb4uski]

If the unemployment rate wasn't at an all time low, I would worry. One thing that concerns me is the amount of consumer debt we have right now. It's dominoes right... people take there money out of the market for three reasons (that I know of)...


1. They need the money
2. Fear and Panic
3. RMD


I only worry about #1 and #2, and usually 1 is the driver of 2 even if uncorrelated. FOMO, or 'everyone is doing it mentality'. I almost don't even fear #2, because eventually those folks realize they are ACTUALLY missing out by being OUT of the market. Eventually if you pulled the money for fear and panic, you would look around and say, okay where else can I beat inflation...and back in goes the dough.


Okay maybe there is a #4, death.

#5 Rebalancing.... took some out just last week.

 

[Free To Canoe]

What financial beanstalk? Where did you get the beans? Will,it grow in Vermont or ...I can move, no problem.
What haven’t I heard of this before? Why have you guys been holding out on me? Is it because I raise chickens?

Oh no. Now the word is out. Now even chicken raisers from Vermont will want in on the action.

 

[Release The Hounds]

https://cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/bull-market-likely-years-run/

Saw an article and I agree the bull run will continue for awhile.. another 10 years or so perhaps. The Tech sector will continue to power growth.

I’ve heard the doom and gloom saying the Baby Boomers will take out tons of money from the stock market..and the market will collapse lol. On the other hand, aside from the military and government workers who are still getting pensions, Private pensions are a thing of the past and younger people are plowing their retirement savings into the stock market or index funds. And I think many boomers’s kids will inherit their 401k, instead of blowing all of it.

QYou

 

[Rianne]

There seems to be enthusiasm as trade issues are being ironed out. The market seems to like the environment it's in, as long as it doesn't get scared off by some distracting event. The talking heads refer to the market as a person who has emotions.



if there's a major storm surge with catastrophic damage, the market could see rebuilding, surge in construction. The insurance sector would take a bite. I live in the corn/bean belt of the mid west. The farmers are upset today but might be happy tomorrow if trade is renegotiated. Rather than just looking at past years where numbers lost or gained, look at the events that caused the swings. We understand what happened in 2008 but are we making the right changes so that doesn't happen again?

 

[NW-Bound]

...We understand what happened in 2008 but are we making the right changes so that doesn't happen again?

“History does not repeat itself but it rhymes” -- Mark Twain

Throughout history, we have had bubble after bubble. If not tulip, than land, or homes, or dot-coms, or bitcoin. There's always something to stir up people's imagination and hope.

 

[Totoro]

My crystal ball is cracked, I can't read minds, and my Time Machine is broken.

What do we want? A time machine!

When do we want it? That's irrelevant!

 

[morriss003]

I remember people saying in 2005 that the bull market would run for another decade.

 

[Koolau]

My gut says that no bull will run that long - just because. Most records are broken by small increments - not large. Having said that, I don't see much on the horizon - save the FED doing what the FED does - that would bring on a recession any time soon. Having said THAT, I actually have no idea. My strategy is to keep on doing what I'm doing: Maintain my roughly 30% stock AA, keep collecting my modest pension and relatively generous SS check, taking my RMDs on time and living my life. Additionally, I'll hope against any black swans. YMMV

 

[Badger]

In my area people are continuing to build McMansions. Building is constant and I have yet to see anything less than 3600 sq ft with some as much as 6000 sq ft. Property is scarce so older houses are bought for >$600k and torn down to build new.



In the past 10 yrs the 28 houses on my block there are only 5 of us left with our old <1600 sq ft houses. Of the 5 left there are 2 already on the demolition list. Of the 3 remaining mine (the smallest) is valued at about $700k. I don't plan on selling but when the day comes it will also be torn down.



I wonder if there is going to be a repeat from a decade ago for many of these people. I don't have much confidence that people will remember. Too many grasshoppers.


Cheers!

 

[Koolau]

In my area people are continuing to build McMansions. Building is constant and I have yet to see anything less than 3600 sq ft with some as much as 6000 sq ft. Property is scarce so older houses are bought for >$600k and torn down to build new.



In the past 10 yrs the 28 houses on my block there are only 5 of us left with our old <1600 sq ft houses. Of the 5 left there are 2 already on the demolition list. Of the 3 remaining mine (the smallest) is valued at about $700k. I don't plan on selling but when the day comes it will also be torn down.



I wonder if there is going to be a repeat from a decade ago for many of these people. I don't have much confidence that people will remember. Too many grasshoppers.


Cheers!

Heh, heh. Guess the bull market has skipped my area - where I stay in the summer time. My house was built before the war - the civil war, that is. There are no plans to demolish it to build a McMansion (or anything else.) Now, in my adopted land, I know of properties selling for 2 Mil as tear downs. I guess it's all dependent upon where you live.

Let the bulls run! YMMV

 

[beowulf]

For $2M, I’d happily sell our 2400 sq ft, 42 year old house on a half acre to anyone. And they can tear it down, blow it up, build chicken coops on it or whatever. I’d even discount it to $1.75M.

 

[unclemick]

Not all of us. In fact, almost all the lefties I know from the 60s are still pretty much the same, albeit some of them a bit more affluent and self satisfied.

AND if born Before 1946 some just get wilder as time passes perhaps seeming to speed up.

heh heh heh - left handed, INTJ and born in SW Washington - anyone remember '47 States and the '------' of Washington?

And then the Saints and Washington Huskies lost their opening games. So toss some Curmudgeon seasoning.