Thoughts on TESLA

[bobandsherry]

You are missing the similarities. Prior to 2015, Amazon was reinvesting every penny into building out a massive infrastructure to support their business. Speculation, at the time, was whether they would ever make a profit. Amazon skeptics also believed that the established retailers like Target, Walmart, Et al, could simply crush Amazon at their leisure by duplicating Amazon's efforts. Sound familiar? This caused many to avoid the stock until it was obvious that the plan was working.

Any growth company does that, however as I said before, their business models were completely different and divergent of the other. And I had confidence in what Bezos would say vs. my lack of confidence in anything Musk says. Bezos ran Amazon without a lot of the antics that Musk does today. So again, totally different companies and ran by totally different type of people.

If you had purchased two years ago, you would be no worse off, today. Does not seem too risky so far. Much of the pain and dramatic swings have now run their course and Tesla is on firm ground (two consecutive profitable quarters) with a 1 to 2 year lead on the competition.

You fail to recognize other alternatives. Just putting the $$$ into S&P index fund would have returned about 20%. So yeah, practically speaking one has lost out. And one should expect a better overall return with a higher risk investment.

Of course, time will tell. If you do not want to take any risk (or at least minimize risk), more power to you; I respect such a position. For me, a high potential return is worth taking a little risk (in moderation). To each his/her own.

Guess we agree on something

 

[ERD50]

You are missing the similarities. Prior to 2015, Amazon was reinvesting every penny into ...

You are very selective in your examples.

Some other companies have done that exact same thing, and gone broke. In fact, that is the profile of a going broke business - what else can they do but plow the money back in the business? A failing business doesn't have money for anything else.

Of course, it can also be the profile of a business that is setting itself up for future success. But we can't know which it will be at this stage.

....

There is more than a little amount of risk here. And with all the good news as you call it Tesla is still trading below price when this thread started two years ago.

If you had purchased two years ago, you would be no worse off, today. ...

That is exactly wrong. Any "investor" should know this. See bobandsherry's post for details.

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

More proof that Tesla is confounding legacy car makers in Europe. Thousands of Teslas are now pouring into their home market.

Just a small reminder too that the economics here are very different: one gallon of gas costs $6.4 here in the Netherlands, and electricity typically $0.24 Eur per kWh (retail at home), or even $0.12 at wholesale level.


So driving a mile costs ~1/3rd with electricity than gas. Before road taxes and other incentives.


Still, leasing a Tesla 3 here is still out of range here too for the masses. Prices should drop about 20%.


I'll wait for the Volkswagen ID. Neo most likely.

 

[bobandsherry]

You are very selective in your examples.



Some other companies have done that exact same thing, and gone broke. In fact, that is the profile of a going broke business - what else can they do but plow the money back in the business? A failing business doesn't have money for anything else.

I had same thought, but didn't want to spend time to research specifics.

That is exactly wrong. Any "investor" should know this. See bobandsherry's post for details.


-ERD50

You get it. I've made a couple of calculated buys as a trade (note that I said trade and not investment) on some dips, so my wallet is fatter from TSLA, but not putting money in for long term. I guess I should have just written options instead, wallet would have been fat enough to buy a Tesla. [emoji39]

It is so strange that despite Musk basically being deceitful with all his promises, there's still a strong group of people who continue to invest.

 

[oneill225]

I had same thought, but didn't want to spend time to research specifics.
You get it. I've made a couple of calculated buys as a trade (note that I said trade and not investment) on some dips, so my wallet is fatter from TSLA, but not putting money in for long term. I guess I should have just written options instead, wallet would have been fat enough to buy a Tesla. [emoji39]
It is so strange that despite Musk basically being deceitful with all his promises, there's still a strong group of people who continue to invest.

I'm not getting whatever it is you are getting. Someone who put money into Tesla two years ago (and left it there) would not have lost any money (at today's price). The fact that other investments did better over that time does not change that fact. The point is that, in hindsight, such an investment was not all that risky.

Good to hear that you believed Tesla would rebound on those dips. That will continue to be an opportunity going forward.

I recently put some money in for the long-term (or until I see Tesla failing to improve).

 

[Nick12]

In Davie FL near Miami a Tesla driver crashed his car, battery exploded as driver lost control and hit some trees. Body burned beyond recognition.Feb 24 last night.

 

[bobandsherry]

In Davie FL near Miami a Tesla driver crashed his car, battery exploded as driver lost control and hit some trees. Body burned beyond recognition.Feb 24 last night.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/davie/fl-ne-davie-tesla-crash-fole-20190225-story.html

 

[ls99]

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/davie/fl-ne-davie-tesla-crash-fole-20190225-story.html

Saw that, one article claimed rescuers could not open door, no doorhandle. Was a bit fast, est.75-90 MPH.
Ty Russell‏Verified account @TRussellCBS4

Investigators in Davie are looking into a crash involving a Tesla on S Flamingo Road near 10th. Police say officers tried to save the driver but couldn’t open the door because there was not a handle. Car burst into flames. Unclear what led to the single-car crash. @CBSMiami
Hope to read the post crash investigative report ... someday.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

In Davie FL near Miami a Tesla driver crashed his car, battery exploded as driver lost control and hit some trees. Body burned beyond recognition.Feb 24 last night.

70 or so people die a day in automobile accidents in the US. I noticed you didn't post about any of the other collision deaths that day.

One occurs in a Tesla and we race to the forum to post this news.

Certainly an odd obsession amongst a "handful of posters" to portray Tesla in a negative way.

 

[ERD50]

I'm not getting whatever it is you are getting. Someone who put money into Tesla two years ago (and left it there) would not have lost any money (at today's price). The fact that other investments did better over that time does not change that fact. ....

But that's not what you said. It seems to me that every time you are challenged, you either change the subject, or change the wording. You said:

"If you had purchased two years ago, you would be no worse off, today." - But you change that to "would not have lost any money", which is technically true if you put blinders on.

But "no worse off, today.", no, that's not true. If you are investing, that money either went into Tesla, or went into another investment. So it absolutely does matter. And it absolutely makes sense to use a market index fund for comparison. Being behind a lower risk investment by 20% is worse off. That 20% difference is real. You don't get that? It must be because you don't want to, because it is obvious, it is investing 101.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

70 or so people die a day in automobile accidents in the US. I noticed you didn't post about any of the other collision deaths that day.

One occurs in a Tesla and we race to the forum to post this news.

Certainly an odd obsession amongst a "handful of posters" to portray Tesla in a negative way.

Maybe because those other cars don't claim to have an "Autopilot" mode? Maybe because large lithium battery fires are very difficult to put out? This is new tech, with new questions, so yes, it gets attention.

It's not an 'odd obsession', it happens in other areas. A nuclear disaster (and non-disaster) gets tons of attention, while people in other power industries are killed/injured at far higher rates (including rooftop solar), relative to the power produced. They are not in the news because they happen regularly.

-ERD50

 

[Nick12]

Maybe because those other cars don't claim to have an "Autopilot" mode? Maybe because large lithium battery fires are very difficult to put out? This is new tech, with new questions, so yes, it gets attention.

It's not an 'odd obsession', it happens in other areas. A nuclear disaster (and non-disaster) gets tons of attention, while people in other power industries are killed/injured at far higher rates (including rooftop solar), relative to the power produced. They are not in the news because they happen regularly.

-ERD50

+1. Thanks for pointing out some good points!

 

[bobandsherry]

70 or so people die a day in automobile accidents in the US. I noticed you didn't post about any of the other collision deaths that day.



One occurs in a Tesla and we race to the forum to post this news.



Certainly an odd obsession amongst a "handful of posters" to portray Tesla in a negative way.

I think the death count is even higher than you noted.....

Anyways, just guessing the interest may stem from the hype at how much safer the Tesla vehicles are. Even you've said that's the reason you have purchased two of them. So when there is a death, especially so violently, it gets attention. The fact that the batteries continue to be a burn threat for so long and that this car continued to reignite long after it was originally thought to have been extinguished also makes it an interesting item to discuss. Just think as the EV's become more mainstream there is some real concerns that need to be considered and properly planned for.

Someone hasn't posted about ICE deaths because, well, this is a Tesla discussion so would be inappropriate, right?

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

It is an odd obsession when it goes on and on and on.

Perhaps there will be another death in a Tesla today, and the handful of posters can quickly report it to us.

We can only hope for the best.

 

[MichaelB]

Snarky posts about people dying is not cool. Let's see if we can keep the conversation above that.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

I think the death count is even higher than you noted.....

Anyways, just guessing the interest may stem from the hype at how much safer the Tesla vehicles are. Even you've said that's the reason you have purchased two of them. So when there is a death, especially so violently, it gets attention. The fact that the batteries continue to be a burn threat for so long and that this car continued to reignite long after it was originally thought to have been extinguished also makes it an interesting item to discuss. Just think as the EV's become more mainstream there is some real concerns that need to be considered and properly planned for.

Someone hasn't posted about ICE deaths because, well, this is a Tesla discussion so would be inappropriate, right?

Hype? Or fact?

Check what the NHTSA says. Don't take my word for it.

 

[bobandsherry]

Hype? Or fact?



Check what the NHTSA says. Don't take my word for it.

Is it the car or that mostly those who can afford to buy a Tesla are as a group professionals and/or more "well healed" and therefore more cautious and alert drivers? In other words the Tesla drivers are not representative of the broader mainstream set of drivers.

As an example younger drivers (16-19) are three times more likely to be involved in an accident (based on miles driven). This age group is mostly unable to afford a Tesla. Those who are high risk drivers, heavy drugs and alcohol consumers, probably only able to afford a beater or low cost used car and not a Tesla.

And also, Tesla are all relatively new, better maintained. Therefore less prone to being in accident due to brake failure, bald tires, etc.

Just something to think about.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Is it the car or that mostly those who can afford to buy a Tesla are as a group professionals and/or more "well healed" and therefore more cautious and alert drivers? In other words the Tesla drivers are not representative of the broader mainstream set of drivers.

As an example younger drivers (16-19) are three times more likely to be involved in an accident (based on miles driven). This age group is mostly unable to afford a Tesla. Those who are high risk drivers, heavy drugs and alcohol consumers, probably only able to afford a beater or low cost used car and not a Tesla.

And also, Tesla are all relatively new, better maintained. Therefore less prone to being in accident due to brake failure, bald tires, etc.

Just something to think about.

I recall one death in a Tesla where a group of kids were going a hundred or so in Daddy's Tesla. The road was nicknamed dead mans curve or something. I believe it was your state. There might be others.

The NHTSA just tests vehicles. No allowance for age of drivers, affordability or anything else.

When the Model X was tested for side impact, it performed twice as good as the closest competitor. This was about 2 years ago.

 

[JoeWras]

The fire issue garners interest because highly trained professionals are struggling to deal with the re-ignition factor that the batteries present.

 

[Texas Proud]

The question I would have is if the person was still alive before the fire... IOW, if there were no fire would he be here talking about his accident... I do not know as I did not read the article..


But this is like the Pinto or Chevy truck that the fire itself killed the person and not the actual running into something...

 

[Ready]

If I’m reading the news story correctly, the car swerved across three lanes and eventually crashed into a palm tree. I don’t know if it really matters at that point whether the car runs on batteries or gasoline. There is a good chance there will be fatalities when a car hits a large stationary object at high speed. A car with gas in it could easily catch fire as well.

I do agree that when a Tesla crashes it generates media attention, where as when an ICE vehicle crashes it generally doesn’t unless there are some extenuating circumstances. I think it’s simply because there are not that many crashes involving Teslas (a good thing), so when it does happen we all want to know if it was just a garden variety crash or something to do with the technology.

 

[ncbill]

Gasoline/diesel vehicle fires don't require a crash to occur & you'll be lucky if you've got enough time to pull off the road & get out before the entire vehicle is involved.

BEVs are FAR safer where the above is concerned.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Gasoline/diesel vehicle fires don't require a crash to occur & you'll be lucky if you've got enough time to pull off the road & get out before the entire vehicle is involved.

BEVs are FAR safer where the above is concerned.

Absolutely correct.

 

[bobandsherry]

The good news for TSLA just keeps on going.... Maybe Musk will soon learn that SEC doesn't have a sense of humor.

Tesla shares fall after SEC asks judge to hold Elon Musk in contempt for violating deal

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/tes...elon-musk-in-contempt-for-violating-deal.html

Market didn't like the "good" news, dropped $10 in after market.

 

[oneill225]

But that's not what you said. It seems to me that every time you are challenged, you either change the subject, or change the wording. You said:
"If you had purchased two years ago, you would be no worse off, today." - But you change that to "would not have lost any money", which is technically true if you put blinders on.
But "no worse off, today.", no, that's not true. If you are investing, that money either went into Tesla, or went into another investment. So it absolutely does matter. And it absolutely makes sense to use a market index fund for comparison. Being behind a lower risk investment by 20% is worse off. That 20% difference is real. You don't get that? It must be because you don't want to, because it is obvious, it is investing 101.
-ERD50

Interesting way to judge the success of an investment. I never claimed that Tesla outperformed any other investment over the past two years. I stated a simple fact, Tesla stock would be worth no less than it is worth today (and, yes, that is how I measure "worse off" when it comes to money).

By your logic, someone who owned an S&P index fund over the past two years is "worse off" because they only made 20% while another investment returned 21% over the same period. This is a game you can never win because there will always be a better investment (in hindsight). Are you worse off for owning the S&P index fund over the past two years?

Hindsight is 20/20. If you think the S&P index fund is the investment to own, more power to you. I suggest you start another thread that sings the virtues and low risk of the S&P fund. This is a thread about the future of Tesla stock.