Thoughts on TESLA

[ERD50]

Thinking of plunking down $2500 for Model Y, delivery sometime late next year or maybe the following year? Might want to read this and be sure you are totally informed.

Elon Musk touted a lenient return policy for Tesla, but history suggests customers should read the fine print

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/23/elon-musk-tweets-lenient-return-policy-but-may-not-be-upheld.html

From the article:

“Please note that after receiving a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN), you will not be eligible to receive a refund for your order deposit.”

So, it's a refundable deposit... until Tesla says it's not?

I'm getting more disgusted with Musk by the week. All this talk about how they are the path to "sustainable energy" and they are going to be part of saving the planet, and he pulls all this BS on customers/investors.

And he's tweeting promises that are not matched by the official statements from the company, the ones the employees must follow? The SEC's not gonna like that. Is Musk just losing it?

It all looks so desperate.

Still would like to see all the buy points some of the investors here got in at and are still holding. And isn't there talk of Musk being leveraged at $240? What happens if we see a drop below that?

-ERD50

 

[Lakewood90712]

From the article:


Still would like to see all the buy points some of the investors here got in at and are still holding. And isn't there talk of Musk being leveraged at $240? What happens if we see a drop below that?

-ERD50

If it drops below $ 240 ? , with high flying speculative stocks , might be a wild ride for a bit

Should find support and stabilize , but who knows what level.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

From the article:



So, it's a refundable deposit... until Tesla says it's not?

I'm getting more disgusted with Musk by the week. All this talk about how they are the path to "sustainable energy" and they are going to be part of saving the planet, and he pulls all this BS on customers/investors.

And he's tweeting promises that are not matched by the official statements from the company, the ones the employees must follow? The SEC's not gonna like that. Is Musk just losing it?

It all looks so desperate.

Still would like to see all the buy points some of the investors here got in at and are still holding. And isn't there talk of Musk being leveraged at $240? What happens if we see a drop below that?

-ERD50

I didn't get a VIN till about a month before delivery

 

[bobandsherry]

From the article:
So, it's a refundable deposit... until Tesla says it's not?

Here's link to the Model Y FAQ. It states "The cost to place an order for Model Y is $2,500 USD." Strangely, intentional or not, it doesn't state it's a deposit - but a "cost".

The policy does say a "full refund", but no where does it state what "full" means. Again, intentional or not? Given the CNBC story, one could draw a conclusion.

It all looks so desperate.

Still would like to see all the buy points some of the investors here got in at and are still holding. And isn't there talk of Musk being leveraged at $240? What happens if we see a drop below that?
-ERD50

CNBC had discussed Tesla several weeks ago, in the discussion it was stated that if Tesla was to drop below $240 that Musk would face a margin call. This article states the call price being at $232.30. But Musk has borrowed more against his shares recently, so maybe it's closer to $240 now.

Will Elon Musk Be the Next CEO to Face A Margin Call Death-Spiral?

As the proxy notes Musk has currently pledged 13,774,897 of his 37,853,041 shares to support those loans, it implies that at a share price below $232.30 (assuming a current balance of $800 million), he’d face either a margin call or the need to post additional shares as collateral.

The article does state:

Of course, Musk does have millions more TSLA shares he can (and undoubtedly will) pledge to meet margin calls, so an outright liquidation of his stock is unlikely to occur until the price of Tesla shares dips into the $90s.

Also keep in mind the compensation/incentive plan for Musk. That further magnifies the problem for Musk as he only gets wealthier from Tesla if the stock price goes up, so a lot of downside personally for Musk if the stock continues to slip.

“Elon will receive no guaranteed compensation of any kind — no salary, no cash bonuses, and no equity that vests simply by the passage of time,” the company wrote in a statement when the compensation plan was announced in January. “Instead, Elon’s only compensation will be a 100% at-risk performance award, which ensures that he will be compensated only if Tesla and all of its shareholders do extraordinarily well.”

https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/21/17147678/elon-musk-tesla-ceo-compensation-award-plan

Specifically, the first milestone for Musk to be awarded is when Tesla market cap hits $100 billion. If my math is correct, that's about $580/share.

Tesla Announces New Long-Term Performance Award for Elon Musk

It all looks so desperate.

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
From the article:

“Please note that after receiving a Vehicle Identification Number (VIN), you will not be eligible to receive a refund for your order deposit.”

So, it's a refundable deposit... until Tesla says it's not? ...
-ERD50

I didn't get a VIN till about a month before delivery

Well, that was the point of the article. Once you get a VIN, no refund for you.

So you got the VIN, the car shows up, you decide you don't want it - no "refundable deposit" for you. So I hope people putting these [-]refundable deposits[/-], ummm, [-]deposits[/-], ummm "$2,500 USD cost to place an order for Model Y" know exactly what they are getting into.

Sounds sleazy/desperate to me.

-ERD50

 

[kcowan]

Well, that was the point of the article. Once you get a VIN, no refund for you.

So you got the VIN, the car shows up these [-]refundable deposits[/-], ummm, [-]deposits[/-], ummm "$2,500 USD cost to place an order for Model Y" know exactly what they are getting into.

Sounds sleazy/desperate to me.

-ERD50

yes I think it has gone from excessive hope to desperation and potential fraud.

 

[bobandsherry]

For those who thought TSLA was bargain at $293, then $275 and $265, stand in line with your cash extended to buy more today. Pre-market currently $260 and based on all the recent "good news" from Tesla/Musk:

Tesla stock falls as concerns over softer sales increase after NYT report

Tesla analyst cuts Model 3 forecast, now sees bear market in stock ahead - target price cut from $245 to $210

But hey, there is more good news. Tesla raising prices on inventory cars by about 3%, Elon Musk says. I guess if demand is down raising prices on cars sitting in inventory is the right move to make.

Of course, this is after it was reported that Tesla recently was clearing out showroom models of the 2018 Model S P100D for $75K (seems all those deals are long gone). So maybe they've already cleared out the really old stuff.

Anyways, who's jumping to the head of the line to snag some shares at $260?

 

[Ready]

I got a VIN on a Mid Range Model 3. When I went to the delivery center to pick it up I didn’t like some of the panel gaps and a small scratch on the front bumper. They apologized and offered to immediately refund my $2,500 to my credit card. I told them I was willing to place a new order online and wait two weeks for delivery but I had just sold my Lexus and didn’t have another car I could drive while I waited. So they found me a Model S P85D and handed me the keys to it. They told me to keep it until my new car came in, which it did two weeks later.

I’ve seen the negative coverage in the media, and I’m sure it’s relevant in some circumstances. But this was clearly not what happened in my situation. We now have two Model 3 cars and they are the best cars we have ever driven. Nothing else we’ve previously owned even comes close, and we’ve driven MBZ, BMW and Lexus cars for years.

 

[Running_Man]

For those who thought TSLA was bargain at $293, then $275 and $265, stand in line with your cash extended to buy more today. Pre-market currently $260 and based on all the recent "good news" from Tesla/Musk:

Tesla stock falls as concerns over softer sales increase after NYT report

Tesla analyst cuts Model 3 forecast, now sees bear market in stock ahead - target price cut from $245 to $210

But hey, there is more good news. Tesla raising prices on inventory cars by about 3%, Elon Musk says. I guess if demand is down raising prices on cars sitting in inventory is the right move to make.

Of course, this is after it was reported that Tesla recently was clearing out showroom models of the 2018 Model S P100D for $75K (seems all those deals are long gone). So maybe they've already cleared out the really old stuff.

Anyways, who's jumping to the head of the line to snag some shares at $260?

The reason for the 3% increase in "inventory" Tesla's must be an accounting trick to increase the price to cover the full cost of producing the cars as inventory must be valued at the lower of cost or market and it would not look good if there is a line in the Quarter for a multi-million dollar writedown on the value of Tesla's held in inventory. That would be a financial headline picked up by every auto journalistic bot creating headlines for financial press. I would presume a month or two from now, Elon will be offerring big discounts to move cars already in "inventory".

 

[Aerides]

So they found me a Model S P85D and handed me the keys to it. They told me to keep it until my new car came in, which it did two weeks later...We now have two Model 3 cars and they are the best cars we have ever driven. Nothing else we’ve previously owned even comes close

Is the 3 as good to drive as the S loaner you had? I remember your original post, and having only ever ridden in an S I'd be very impressed if the 3 manages to come close to the S.

 

[bobandsherry]

The reason for the 3% increase in "inventory" Tesla's must be an accounting trick to increase the price to cover the full cost of producing the cars as inventory must be valued at the lower of cost or market and it would not look good if there is a line in the Quarter for a multi-million dollar writedown on the value of Tesla's held in inventory. That would be a financial headline picked up by every auto journalistic bot creating headlines for financial press. I would presume a month or two from now, Elon will be offerring big discounts to move cars already in "inventory".

You could be on to something. Whatever it is, it def seems like the Tesla ship has a Captain at the wheel who makes rash decisions and then changes course immediately after, so not sure how he's making the initial decisions. Just doesn't feel like the right way to run a $45B market cap company. I guess his approach has paid off for him more than mine based on his holdings. But things always work until they don't.

 

[Texas Proud]

Since nobody yet knows what the Y will have nor the cost nor if you if you would even like it.... sounds like a stupid move to put down $2500 that you cannot get back if you decide it does not match the hype...

 

[ERD50]

Since nobody yet knows what the Y will have nor the cost nor if you if you would even like it.... sounds like a stupid move to put down $2500 that you cannot get back if you decide it does not match the hype...

It made some sense back when a deposit might keep you in the full $7,500 credit time frame, or at least the $3,750 credit, or even the $1,875 credit. I don't see the point now.

I got a VIN on a Mid Range Model 3. When I went to the delivery center to pick it up I didn’t like some of the panel gaps and a small scratch on the front bumper. They apologized and offered to immediately refund my $2,500 to my credit card. ....

I’ve seen the negative coverage in the media, and I’m sure it’s relevant in some circumstances. But this was clearly not what happened in my situation. We now have two Model 3 cars and they are the best cars we have ever driven. Nothing else we’ve previously owned even comes close, and we’ve driven MBZ, BMW and Lexus cars for years.

Nice that they took care of you. But a customer should probably only count on the written company policy. Will Tesla do that for everyone 6 months from now? And if so, why isn't it written policy?

And will Tesla be doing it two years from now, when the Y is supposedly in volume production? With all their recent flip-flops, I sure would not count on it.

-ERD50

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Just noticed my one year anniversary was last Friday for my X. 5200 miles of bliss.

 

[ERD50]

Just noticed my one year anniversary was last Friday for my X. 5200 miles of bliss.

Too bad the investors haven't felt that bliss. While the market total return is up over 7% in the past year, TSLA is down more than 14.4%. And that's yesterday's close, not counting another (so far, near the close of the market) under-performing day for TSLA, down another 1.7% relative to the market.

Maybe take some investors out for a ride and some ice cream?

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

Just noticed my one year anniversary was last Friday for my X. 5200 miles of bliss.

Besides being a customer, are you an investor? If so, you feeling same bliss?

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Besides being a customer, are you an investor? If so, you feeling same bliss?

Never held the stock. Although my 940 shares of LLY bought at 34 brings me bliss.

It makes up for my purchase of TEF, which I've lost 20k or so on.

I haven't gotten my 15k EV credit from the feds yet...its like waiting to open my xmas presents that I know are there.

 

[eroscott]

haha, haters/people are using the stock price as a gauge of the companies success in this very new line of electric car world wide sales.
How about comparing Tesla to every other *electric* car maker
AND how many new car makers have been successful in the past 100 years
AND how many car makers have failed in the past 100 years.

Tesla has successfully FORCED several manufacturers to get in this business. Several Germany car makers in very recent days have committed to all electric. GM, Ford, too. None of these would have without Tesla PROVING demand exist if the car is built with range AND performance AND charging speeds. Tesla Model 3s are now getting 145 kW at upgraded V2 Superchargers. Over 200 kW at V3 Superchargers.

It seems that in the near-future Tesla will not have any problem on the demand side as currently the Standard battery version in North America and Performance versions in Europe/China keep the factory at full speed.

After one or two more quarters, Tesla probably will open Mid- or Standard- range versions in Europe/China, as well as right-hand drive markets. In the U.S., more demand could be achieved through the introduction of lease options.

Tesla Model 3 orders in Europe – March 25, 2019

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

You post excellent information eroscott. The 3 German automakers that committed to electric this week were VW, Daimler, and BMW for anybody interested.

 

[Running_Man]

haha, haters/people are using the stock price as a gauge of the companies success in this very new line of electric car world wide sales.
How about comparing Tesla to every other *electric* car maker
AND how many new car makers have been successful in the past 100 years
AND how many car makers have failed in the past 100 years.

Tesla has successfully FORCED several manufacturers to get in this business. Several Germany car makers in very recent days have committed to all electric. GM, Ford, too. None of these would have without Tesla PROVING demand exist if the car is built with range AND performance AND charging speeds. Tesla Model 3s are now getting 145 kW at upgraded V2 Superchargers. Over 200 kW at V3 Superchargers.



Tesla Model 3 orders in Europe – March 25, 2019

Only Volkswagen and Toyota have higher market capitalization than Tesla, buying the stock of a company is not to applaud and enrichen the individuals that wrested control of the company from it's founders, it is to earn more money for one's self and the estimate of future value is a good function of capital markets. To believe that Tesla is going to eventually take over the auto industry and drive virtually every other auto manufacturer out of business is the only way this valuation makes any sense. Tesla sells for 3 times revenues and lost 1 billion dollars last year, is unlikely to make any money this year. Would need to make 15 billion dollars a year for the present stock valuation to make sense. Lets say Tesla in 5 years increases revenue 10X to 215 Billion. That would make Tesla the largest car manufacturer in the world. In order to get there TESLA would have to issue unthinkable amounts of capital from stock and bond offerings, and would have profit of maybe 20-25 billion at most.

SO best case scenario in my mind is maybe 60-75% increase in stock if everything goes well and Musk doesn't decide to dilute the shares. that is about 9-11 percent annually.

Now what is the downside? The downside is that demand without $15,000 rebates is lower than Musk can profitably manufacture and that the cost of batteries increases as the demand for the raw materials needed for 1.2 billion cars in the world require batteries. He goes bankrupt at any point in the next 5 years.

 

[eroscott]

...
To believe that Tesla is going to eventually take over the auto industry and drive virtually every other auto manufacturer out of business
...

Anyone following Tesla in a genuine way, knows that Elon, various spokespeople, etc have NEVER wanted to drive the other auto manufacturers out of business. That is ridiculous.

They have stated literally 100s of times the NEED the other auto manufacturers simply to build electric cars. They have stated there is NO WAY they can manufacture the required number of vehicles to make the transition. They WANT the other manufacturers to build competitive (to gasoline) vehicles.

About: https://www.tesla.com/about
Mission: https://www.tesla.com/blog/mission-tesla

From below at 64 seconds in from 2011:

Elon Musk
BEGIN-QUOTE: "
Sometimes the media tries to create a more antagonistic position that is really the case.

I'm actually really supportive of any efforts like the Volt or the LEAF
or anything that goes in the direction of sustainable transport.

The whole purpose behind Tesla; the reason we put so much time and
effort into creating it was to serve as a catalyst for the transition to electric vehicles.
END-QUOTE"

Title: Charlie Rose interviews Bob Lutz and Elon Musk.

 

[eroscott]

You post excellent information eroscott. The 3 German automakers that committed to electric this week were VW, Daimler, and BMW for anybody interested.

Thank you! Even if Tesla failed in some way. That transition by several companies is happening and are internally making large changes and have already designed new platforms. Several of them have discussed this in videos and articles. Several have showed cars related to their new platform. The Audi one I saw was impressive.

Article on them:

Title: The ‘Tesla Effect’ hits Germany as VW, Daimler, and BMW fully commit to EVs
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mission-elon-musk-master-plan-vw-bmw-daimler/

Also in the article is some discussion about my previous post and the overall goal of Tesla.

 

[Running_Man]

Anyone following Tesla in a genuine way, knows that Elon, various spokespeople, etc have NEVER wanted to drive the other auto manufacturers out of business. That is ridiculous.

They have stated literally 100s of times the NEED the other auto manufacturers simply to build electric cars. They have stated there is NO WAY they can manufacture the required number of vehicles to make the transition. They WANT the other manufacturers to build competitive (to gasoline) vehicles.

About: https://www.tesla.com/about
Mission: https://www.tesla.com/blog/mission-tesla

From below at 64 seconds in from 2011:

Elon Musk
BEGIN-QUOTE: "
Sometimes the media tries to create a more antagonistic position that is really the case.

I'm actually really supportive of any efforts like the Volt or the LEAF
or anything that goes in the direction of sustainable transport.

The whole purpose behind Tesla; the reason we put so much time and
effort into creating it was to serve as a catalyst for the transition to electric vehicles.
END-QUOTE"

Title: Charlie Rose interviews Bob Lutz and Elon Musk.

So then you agree that there is absolutely no reason an investment in Tesla should be expected to be profitable, since the profit motive is not involved in their business operations?

In 2012 Elon Musk said TESLA would grow 50% per year for 10 years and have a market cap of 725 Billion, to do that he would have a market cap of twice the largest auto manufacturer today and a market cap of about the top 10 auto manufacturers. https://money.cnn.com/2015/02/12/investing/tesla-apple-elon-musk/6 months BEFORE he stated that 4 1/2 years ago Tesla stock price was $276

 

[eroscott]

So then you agree that there is absolutely no reason an investment in Tesla should be expected to be profitable, since the profit motive is not involved in their business operations?

I was proving that the absurd focus on stock price in this thread as the major success of Tesla is ridiculous.

Do you GET the quotes. I even pointed to the youtube. Those things are/have happened. Well on the way to a successful mission from that point.

Not sure what people don't want to support American companies that also have large exports to other countries and innovation that pushing boundaries.

Obviously, Tesla needs to make a profit and be sustainable. They have several parts of their business and batteries is a major part of it. Powerpacks and Powerwalls. Commercial and residential. Several very positive results of using commercial powerpacks in Hawaii, Australia, Colorado, California, etc, etc. Examples: https://www.google.com/search?q=powerpack+tesla+installations

Running_Man, feel free to put me on your ignore list and I'll do the same as your comment above has no genuine value and intention.

 

[bobandsherry]

I was proving that the absurd focus on stock price in this thread as the major success of Tesla is ridiculous.

Of course this thread is ALL about focus on stock price. I guess you forget this is a message in "Stock Picking and Market Strategy" and specifically to this original question:

I bought 100 shares awhile back for about $200 a share and I'm thinking about picking up another 100, any thoughts ?

BTW, stock price closed at $303 back then (almost 2 years ago). It closed yesterday at $260, down 14%.

Perhaps you are confusing this with a topic on future of EV cars or a forum of Fanboys of Tesla?