Thoughts on TESLA

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The guy's a crackpot.

Nobody wants some clunky old electric car. They are just a bunch of glorified golf carts.

Land and reuse rocket boosters? He must be insane. That only works in science fiction movies.

No way an American company can economically compete with rockets made in China, Russian or even Europe.

The guy's a nut case. Ignore him.

Teddy Roosevelt - "It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."

I have no idea if Mr. Musk will succeed in making Tesla a profitable ongoing presences in the auto industry. I don't own the individual stock and have no plans to do so. But, Must does things that seasoned experts would never try. The guys and gals at CNN? They can go jump on trampolines.

So are you long TSLA?

I don't own Tesla stock, nor am interested in shorting it. I don't even actively follow the company or its CEO, other than read the articles that keep popping up daily on these Web sites.

Just as a passive observer, I saw that the stock price jumped up after the most recent quarterly report, when Musk apologized for his bad behavior in the previous quarterly report. And people started to give him credit for improving the production rate of the Tesla 3.

Then, why did Musk go nuts and do that silly Twitter post about $420/share buyout?

Looks like he is like so many people who crave the limelight that these posts bring. They like to see their name mentioned daily in print, and on various Web sites, I guess.

I am in your camp. This stock is a "don't touch". Way too crazy for me, I will stick with my boring AAPL, ADI, EW, HON, and others. You know, companies that actually make money.
 
Looks like Tesla may need to stop at recharging station after Friday's close. :LOL:

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD

305.50 -29.95 (-8.93%)At close: August 17 4:00PM EDT
 
Space news interests me, so SpaceX news items inevitably get included in my daily perusal of news. Electric cars never interested me all that much, so normally never followed Tesla news items.

Yet it was the daily attacks on both SpaceX and Tesla that appeared in the comments sections of SpaceX news items that finally made me take a closer look at Tesla news items. The attacks on SpaceX contained obvious false claims with a healthy mixture of personal attacks on Musk’s character. I didn’t quite understand the animosity toward SpaceX since it is not publicly traded. Anyway, after some research I came across this article that provides a plausible explanation for what I was observing and seems to indicate Musk’s paranoia is well earned:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-short-sellers-media-crusade/

“Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.” — Catch 22
 
Anyway, after some research I came across this article that provides a plausible explanation for what I was observing and seems to indicate Musk’s paranoia is well earned:
https://insideevs.com/tesla-short-sellers-media-crusade/
It's an interesting article, though it clearly glosses over many of the observable, no-need-for-a-villain reasons that Tesla is in trouble. From the article:
However, there’s a way out. If Tesla can start generating profit and positive cash flow, it will be able to finance its operations through earnings and will be much less beholden to capital markets. “The way to break from the short sellers’ influence is by becoming self-sustaining,” writes Jesse. “When you no longer need to sell stock to survive, you don’t care how high or low your stock goes. When you no longer need to raise debt to survive, you don’t care which agencies short sellers can manipulate.”
Or, put another way: If Tesla had been meeting its own production and earning projections, they would already be in the black and short sellers and any nefarious plots they can orchestrate would be nothing but a minor irritant. Nobody would sign on to the "they are going down!" hype if Tesla's performance (and Musk's behavior) weren't lending credibility to such rumors. Heck, if they tried such tricks and Musk knew it was bogus, he could make good use of the artificially depressed stock price to execute a buyback at bargain rates.
 
Brilliant people frequently come off crazy in one way or another. Just take a read of Steve Job's daughter's recent book. Fascinating stuff. (There have been recent excerpts floating around.)

Elon is going to have to learn to continue to let results speak for themselves. He also has to learn to ignore the internet. We know how much of a sewer is out there. If worried about the shorts, then let results speak for themselves.

I said it before, Elon can get under my skin... but one of the coolest things I've seen in space flight was the recent Space X test that had the dual landings of the reusable boosters. We need Elon types to push the envelope. We don't need them meddling in public markets. Go private if it bothers you, otherwise, put on the flak jacket.
 
Brilliant people frequently come off crazy in one way or another. Just take a read of Steve Job's daughter's recent book. Fascinating stuff. (There have been recent excerpts floating around.)

Elon is going to have to learn to continue to let results speak for themselves. He also has to learn to ignore the internet. We know how much of a sewer is out there. If worried about the shorts, then let results speak for themselves.

I said it before, Elon can get under my skin... but one of the coolest things I've seen in space flight was the recent Space X test that had the dual landings of the reusable boosters. We need Elon types to push the envelope. We don't need them meddling in public markets. Go private if it bothers you, otherwise, put on the flak jacket.

Points made were bang on, well said. TSLA down to $290 or so this morning ... anyone crazy enuf to go either long or short on this? Didn't think so.
 
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Brilliant people frequently come off crazy in one way or another. Just take a read of Steve Job's daughter's recent book. Fascinating stuff. (There have been recent excerpts floating around.)

Elon is going to have to learn to continue to let results speak for themselves. He also has to learn to ignore the internet. We know how much of a sewer is out there. If worried about the shorts, then let results speak for themselves.

I said it before, Elon can get under my skin... but one of the coolest things I've seen in space flight was the recent Space X test that had the dual landings of the reusable boosters. We need Elon types to push the envelope. We don't need them meddling in public markets. Go private if it bothers you, otherwise, put on the flak jacket.




I do not have a problem at all with Elon except he seems to be more in the tech world of over promising and not delivering...


My problem (well, not really as I do not care at all) is that there are so many people who value Tesla at such a high value just because it is Musk... it basically is a car company and should be valued a one..



Ford had sales of 157 Bill and profit of 7 Bill... Tesla had sales less than 12 bill with a loss of almost 2 bill...


Tesla market cap is over 52 bill while Ford is just shy of 39 bill...


Today someone on TV said they believe that the hype is going out and sees the stock price going below $200... we will see....
 
There's a rumor that the Saudis are thinking about backing another EV maker: Lucid Motors. What the heck is this company? So, I had to search the Web.

Lucid Motors is founded by a bunch of ex-Tesla guys, including the chief engineer of the Tesla Model S. So they have some credentials.

No production, not even a factory yet, but they promised one with 1,000-hp power and 400-mile range, priced at $100K. That includes a full suite of sensors for autonomous driving, with lidars too!

Lesser models were also promised, but the above would kill Tesla if and when it is delivered. Is it feasible, or another hype? Very interesting to watch.

PS. Search Youtube for Lucid Motors videos to see their prototype, and what they promised for $100K.
 
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JP Morgan said the intrinsic stock value is $195 yesterday then today suspended any further forecasts.
 
Electric cars would be good for a city car but a daily driver . I don't know . Over the years we have seen other people try to build automobiles and fail . There is the guy in Shreveport building the 2 seater car to sell for 7000.00 . Lots of people paid 1000.00 to get on the waiting list but he has built nothing . .
Musk is brilliant , but he might be before his time.
 
JP Morgan said the intrinsic stock value is $195 yesterday then today suspended any further forecasts.

Anyone can pull a number out of their ash hole. Any historical info that shows how well the analyst has forecast prices of other companies?
 
...There is the guy in Shreveport building the 2 seater car to sell for 7000.00 . Lots of people paid 1000.00 to get on the waiting list but he has built nothing ...
$7K for a 2-seater EV? Is it a golf cart?
 
JP Morgan said the intrinsic stock value is $195 yesterday then today suspended any further forecasts.


Probably like Goldman... they want to get in on any business to take them private... cannot have a conflict so stop following them...
 
Not to worry. I’m sure they have a Chinese wall between their research and M&A divisions. I’d be worried that one tweet could blow up a deal but not sure who is at risk (not GS or JPM).
 
Look, I love the Model S. The 3 and the X - you can have them. I would love - love - to own a Model S, but...

Has there been much discussion of what happens to the Tesla supercharger infrastructure if it goes belly-up? I was thinking about this on my run today... is this a situation where Tesla owners seek help from the government to maintain that network if Tesla can't sustain operations?

That question, now almost two years ago, was what prevented me from seriously considering a Model S in the first place. I didn't trust that TSLA would become profitable, and thought it was probably just a matter of time before it flamed out... then what? You've got a beautiful $90,000 car that you can only take a hundred miles from home? I don't know. Maybe regular charging stations could sustain it?
 
With more EVs from other car makers on the road in the future, the Tesla charger network will be in demand. It would be taken over by another company who can make a profit. No more free charging for Tesla cars.
 
I recently travelled from DC to Peoria and was surprised at the number of charging stations in fairly remote areas. If you think about it electricity is pretty easy to distribute compared to other fuels since the grid is in place.
 
Yes, and no.

There's electricity nearly everywhere, but there is not a whole lot of margin now in the grid just to supply household electricity. When EVs become more popular, more wires will have to be strung, or more large-scale solar plants will be built along the road.

Vehicles use a lot more energy than people think. My home with a 5-ton AC uses an average of 5kW during daylight hours in the hottest month. A car driven at 60mph burns about 17kW.

After 5 hours when a Tesla has depleted its battery, and you want to fast charge it, you are talking about drawing more than 100kW per car. BMW and Porsche are developing a supercharger that will pump 450kW into an EV battery to refill it in 15 min.

That power, 450kW, is 90 times higher than my home uses, in the summer in the hot Southwest.
 
I recently travelled from DC to Peoria and was surprised at the number of charging stations in fairly remote areas. If you think about it electricity is pretty easy to distribute compared to other fuels since the grid is in place.
It's more about the time required to charge the batteries. Consider now it takes maybe 5 minutes to fill up your gas tank. At a super charging station, which has the fast chargers (charge 16x faster than a public charging station) it still takes 75 minutes to fully charge a Tesla, 20 minutes just to charge to 50%. Even if they further improve the charging and reduce 50%, that's still over 30 minutes to fully charge the Tesla. Imagine the lines waiting to get the car charged as more vehicles get on the road. So distribution may be easy, but it's not fast and as demand grows you can put money on it that costs will go up for a charge.
 
As someone who just cruised middle America and put 3350 miles on my car, those recharge times are still unacceptable.

Gotta fix that before I take the electric plunge. I like to use my car a lot for cross country adventures.
 
It's more about the time required to charge the batteries. Consider now it takes maybe 5 minutes to fill up your gas tank. At a super charging station, which has the fast chargers (charge 16x faster than a public charging station) it still takes 75 minutes to fully charge a Tesla, 20 minutes just to charge to 50%. Even if they further improve the charging and reduce 50%, that's still over 30 minutes to fully charge the Tesla. Imagine the lines waiting to get the car charged as more vehicles get on the road. So distribution may be easy, but it's not fast and as demand grows you can put money on it that costs will go up for a charge.


Think about it a bit more... there are a LOT of gas stations around and there are times that I still have to wait in line to get to a pump... how long will the waits be for a charging station?
 
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