Thoughts on TESLA

[NW-Bound]

That's why BMW and Porsche are working on the 450kW charger as I mentioned earlier (500A at 900V). It cuts the charging time to 15 min, which is not bad, considering that you can still run the heater or the AC as needed while waiting inside the car.

The hardest thing to do is to run more big wires everywhere, and install more generating stations, solar or otherwise. Then, the charging stations can be installed everywhere, at each Costco, Walmart, Safeway, Walgreen store, etc...

 

[ERD50]

That's why BMW and Porsche are working on the 450kW charger as I mentioned earlier (500A at 900V). It cuts the charging time to 15 min, which is not bad, considering that you can still run the heater or the AC as needed while waiting inside the car.

The hardest thing to do is to run more big wires everywhere, and install more generating stations, solar or otherwise. Then, the charging stations can be installed everywhere, at each Costco, Walmart, Safeway, Walgreen store, etc...

Another way to put that in perspective - if they put up solar panels so as to not draw this peak from the grid on a hot sunny day, it would take ~ 1800 panels ( ~ 250 W peak each in bright sun at noon) to support one station like that.

And as was mentioned, we can have lines at gas stations even though there's one at so many corners. So having 3 EV charging lanes at 15 minutes each, with stations spread far apart will support a relatively few EVs (though many/most will be charging at home overnight - we are talking stations along highways here, I think). And 3 charging lanes would require a whopping 5,400 solar panels! How much roof space is that?

-ERD50

 

[Hamlet]

I do not have a problem at all with Elon except he seems to be more in the tech world of over promising and not delivering...


My problem (well, not really as I do not care at all) is that there are so many people who value Tesla at such a high value just because it is Musk... it basically is a car company and should be valued a one..



Ford had sales of 157 Bill and profit of 7 Bill... Tesla had sales less than 12 bill with a loss of almost 2 bill...


Tesla market cap is over 52 bill while Ford is just shy of 39 bill...


Today someone on TV said they believe that the hype is going out and sees the stock price going below $200... we will see....

I look at TSLA's financial statements and question whether there is any viable business here at all. Musk's behavior has been increasingly erratic and his tweet about the financing being secured for going private are potentially criminal.

I would rather buy scratch-off lottery tickets than this stock.

 

[NW-Bound]

This is an interesting subject, so it's worthwhile for me to invest a few minutes to look up a few facts.

Total car miles driven in 2017: 3.22 trillion miles
Total electric energy consumed: 3.82 trillion kWh

The Nissan Leaf uses about 340Wh per mile. So, assuming all cars are that small, the total annual energy required is 3.22 trillion x 0.34 kWh = 1.09 trillion kWh.

To that, we need to add energy used by commercial vehicles, which is about 40% of all private cars, bringing it up to 1.09 x 1.4 = 1.5 trillion kWh.

That is about 1/2 of all energy produced and consumed right now. So, the rough order for all vehicles to be EV is that the grid and generating capacity needs to be increased by 1/2. That can be done, but takes a lot of money, and has to be done over few decades.

 

[Car-Guy]

Think about it a bit more... there are a LOT of gas stations around and there are times that I still have to wait in line to get to a pump... how long will the waits be for a charging station?

I know where there are two charging stations within ~50 miles of my location. They are never busy. I think there are about 6 or 8 charging stalls at each site which is probably enough to charge all the electric cars in the area (maybe even all of Texas) at the same time.

 

[Texas Proud]

I know where there are two charging stations within ~50 miles of my location. They are never busy. I think there are about 6 or 8 charging stalls at each site which is probably enough to charge all the electric cars in the area (maybe even all of Texas) at the same time.

I know you are joking about this, but for the people who think everybody will be in electric soon.... they just do not get it...




NW Bound.... I am curious how much electricity is used by the Leaf when the AC is running full blast for the 100 degree temps we have here in Texas... and how much longer it will take to charge while waiting in the car with the AC running

 

[JoeWras]

Oh wow, you guys are putting math into this now?

Stop being so technical. It just needs to happen already!



/sarcasm

 

[bobandsherry]

I look at TSLA's financial statements and question whether there is any viable business here at all. Musk's behavior has been increasingly erratic and his tweet about the financing being secured for going private are potentially criminal.

I would rather buy scratch-off lottery tickets than this stock.

I bought several $290 scratch off tickets when TSLA dipped, got a pretty good payoff. Def not long in this, but 10%+ for few days was a good prize. [emoji41]

 

[NW-Bound]

NW Bound.... I am curious how much electricity is used by the Leaf when the AC is running full blast for the 100 degree temps we have here in Texas... and how much longer it will take to charge while waiting in the car with the AC running

A residential AC typically uses 1 kW per ton of cooling, roughly. If the car AC has the same efficiency and is about 1 ton (12,000 BTU/hr), then that's 1 kW of power usage. That is not much compared to the energy for propulsion which is as much as 20kW at highway speed.

While the car being charged, that 1 kW is minuscule compared to the 100+ kW being pumped into the battery.

 

[Texas Proud]

A residential AC typically uses 1 kW per ton of cooling, roughly. If the car AC has the same efficiency and is about 1 ton (12,000 BTU/hr), then that's 1 kW of power usage. That is not much compared to the energy for propulsion which is as much as 20kW at highway speed.

While the car being charged, that 1 kW is minuscule compared to the 100+ kW being pumped into the battery.

Interesting.... then a car with 60 kW of power should be able to keep cool for up to 60 hours!!!



That could be a nice backup in case of power outages...

 

[NW-Bound]

The most electricity my home uses in the summer is 100 kWh over 24 hours. That's the battery capacity of the most expensive version of the Tesla, model P100D ($140K).

So, yes, the car battery can run a home if you have a suitable large inverter. These lithium batteries can handle tremendous surge power. Earlier, I talked about the Lucid car that boasts 1,000HP. That is more than 750 kW surge demand from its battery!

 

[bobandsherry]

All this math makes my head hurt, lol...

 

[JoeWras]

I like math, but my head hurts too. This stuff is one reason things get so messed up when it crosses into the realm of politics. Nobody wants to "do the math."

After all, to quote a forum friend here, Numbers is hard.

 

[Chuckanut]

The best thing going if one wants an EV type vehicle but is conerned about long drives in areas where charging stations are sparse is the plug-in hybrid. For most of my driving such a car with a battery minimum 25 mile range and 45mph speed would be adequate for most of my day-to-day trips. When more speed and/or range are needed then back to a full gasoline/battery power source.

 

[braumeister]

The best thing going if one wants an EV type vehicle but is conerned about long drives in areas where charging stations are sparse is the plug-in hybrid.

I bought one this year and I love it.
I can make short trips around home under 20 miles without using a drop of gasoline. That covers probably 60% of my driving. On long highway trips I get at least 28 mpg with just the ICE.

I've calculated the efficiency, and at my residential electricity rates the cost of a battery mile is less than half the cost of a gasoline mile, so that's a nice savings.

 

[bobandsherry]

The best thing going if one wants an EV type vehicle but is conerned about long drives in areas where charging stations are sparse is the plug-in hybrid. For most of my driving such a car with a battery minimum 25 mile range and 45mph speed would be adequate for most of my day-to-day trips. When more speed and/or range are needed then back to a full gasoline/battery power source.

Yes, but this thread is in regards to Tesla, so they don't make a hybrid as far as I know. And let's face it, sure the hybrid helps with long distant travels, but the batteries then take up most of the trunk space. You have no place to put luggage so not much use in long distant traveling either.

 

[bobandsherry]

While 80% of the time the all EV would work for me, it's the other 20% when it won't. Such as 1,200 mile trip to Chicago or the 1,750 miles to Albuquerque. I can't imagine trying to drive that, drive for 4 hours and then spend 90 minute recharging. That 1,200 mile trip would take just about 17 hours to drive with gas car, now would take over 23 hours figuring in time to recharge every 275 miles or so. No thanks.

 

[REWahoo]

And let's face it, sure the hybrid helps with long distant travels, but the batteries then take up most of the trunk space. You have no place to put luggage so not much use in long distant traveling either.

Not necessarily:

The Camry Hybrid provides 15.1 cubic feet of trunk space, which is the same amount as the nonhybrid Camry. Unlike most hybrids, the 2018 Camry Hybrid’s battery doesn’t eat into your cargo space because the battery rests underneath the back seat, not in the trunk.

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/toyota/camry-hybrid/interior

 

[bobandsherry]

Not necessarily:



https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/toyota/camry-hybrid/interior

Ok, one car as exception doesn't make it a rule. But thanks for sharing that info.

 

[REWahoo]

But thanks for sharing that info.

Glad to help. Here's a bit more info to bring you up to date:

Hybrid vehicles used to sacrifice interior space to house their extra powertrain components. This meant you had to pack more conservatively on road trips since you had less space to work with—especially if your buddies tagged along. This is no longer the case with the new generation of hybrid vehicles. You now can have the impressive fuel economy (and sometimes additional power) of a hybrid and plenty of space for friends, family, and all of your gear. Here are 15 hybrids roomy enough for your passengers and your Ikea boxes.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/15-hybrids-that-dont-sacrifice-cargo-and-passenger-space/

 

[braumeister]

Yes, mine too has exactly the same capacity as the non-hybrid version.

 

[Chuckanut]

Not necessarily:

Yup! My old hybrid lost about 2 to 3 cubic feet of trunk space to the batteries. Still it is roomy enough for two people and their luggage. And 38 mpg on a car the size of a Camry is better than the mileage of most smaller cars of the same vintage with even less trunk space.

The new Camrys make my old one look like a gas guzzler in comparison. Toyota seems to have a secret sauce when it comes to hybrids.

Back on topic: Mr. Musk needs to realize he’s getting older. A bit more sleep and a bit less tweeting would be in order, IMHO. Also he needs to learn that one doesn’t necessarily have to respond to every tweet and comment.

 

[Totoro]

Think about it a bit more... there are a LOT of gas stations around and there are times that I still have to wait in line to get to a pump... how long will the waits be for a charging station?

There's more power outlets than gas stations already, my brother has his own gas station (power outlet for Tesla S), cost him hundred usd or so to wire up. No waiting time.

How many cars never drive more than a few hundred miles a day? I'd wager most do. My mother never goes beyond 200 miles or so, if that.

Trucks will still exist, long range gas cars as well for a good while. The question is what is the end state, and how fast will it get there? If Tesla doesn't implode it will have pushed electric cars along into the realm of scaled production, and accelerated its timeline. Gives it a decent shot if the technology is ultimately viable (and I see no reason why it isn't).

In any case, more alternatives and flexibility to power transportation besides oil, what's not to like.

 

[Totoro]

And as was mentioned, we can have lines at gas stations even though there's one at so many corners.

I believe (not sure) the high powered recharging stations work with capacitors.

As for long lines: there are 20.000 fully electric vehicles in the Netherlands, another 100.000 or so plug-in hybrids. We have electric recharging stations here. I've never even seen a car refueling along the highway, let alone see a queue. Anecdote isn't data, still ..

Average charge of the largest highway player here (besides Tesla) was 5.57 euro, likely at 35+ cents per kwh. That's enough to take you home, charged in 20 minutes or so. Makes sense, much cheaper elsewhere. With 76 charging stations and 84.000 sessions that's 3 sessions per day on average.

With larger batteries and higher adoption queues might form, but I just don't see it. On short commute trips you charge at home or at the office. On long trips you're out of rush hour .. so when exactly will these lines form? Maybe in the holiday season?

 

[NW-Bound]

...How many cars never drive more than a few hundred miles a day? I'd wager most do. My mother never goes beyond 200 miles or so, if that...

As I always like to have 2 vehicles between us, one of them being an EV would be a sensible choice.

I was tempted to get a used LEAF which is so cheap, but the battery life scared me. I will wait a while longer for the battery technology to mature more.