Thoughts on TESLA

[Running_Man]

I totally agree that Musk inspires many to believe in the product in the same way Steve Jobs elevated Apple and Bezos elevated Amazon. I don't take issue with balanced criticism of Musk. To be taken seriously, however, I think such criticism needs to go beyond the salacious headlines and into the merits of the actual product/service being sold.

Regarding being in the red, I recall that that was the big hit on Amazon for many years, as well. Those who are still believing in Tesla (myself included) are doing so because they see a huge future market and a company that is well positioned to take advantage of that market.

In what manner is Tesla "well-positioned" to take advantage of this huge market that does not presently exist? Do not compare what Amazon was doing, which was positive cash flow from operations in 2002 after surviving the dot-com crash, by selling other individual's products in place of manufacturing with what MUSK is trying to do create a new manufactured product market while running huge operating losses with physical production.

To date MUSK has taken financial failures by winding those losing companies into the better funded companies. Amazon was running by selling products at such low margins to eliminate any competition with themselves, but they had no risk in production of products. TESLA is a totally different financial model.

 

[ERD50]

I ... I like traditional internal combustion engines. True. Yet I still want to see EVs succeed because it ultimately makes sense. Elon continuing down this path may muck it up instead of moving it forward. He has been moving it forward by finally waking up the "reasonable" various MegaMotor companies. ....

I don't "like" ICE or any other technology - I'm technology agnostic. Whatever technology that gets the job done is what should succeed.

So I don't understand why anyone would say that want EVs to succeed. What problem do they solve? They are not the environmental panacea that so many think they are, they are probably worse for the environment than a good hybrid, and a hybrid doesn't have the issues of range anxiety, initial cost, charger access, etc.

The thing to remember is that the energy mix of the grid makes almost no difference. EVs will draw additional energy from the grid. So even a grid that has a high % of RE (renewable energy) will need to crank up their fossil fuel plants when thousands of EVs want to be charged (the RE would already be used up, it is used first, as the 'fuel' cost is zero). And until we have a regular, predictable, sufficient amount of excess RE, an EV is running on fossil fuel. If you look at studies that show emissions of a decent modern hybrid, versus an EV running mostly on fossil fuel, you'll see the hybrid comes out ahead (an EV on 100% NG is ~ comparable, but just a tiny % of coal in there knocks it out).

And EVs really can't gain much in efficiency, battery cycles and electric motors are already ~ 90% efficient, so there just isn't much improvement available. But there is room for improvement with the hybrid, ICE development is still going on, HCCI, SCHCCI, opposed piston, free piston engines - a variety of methods that are bringing better than diesel efficiency levels with lower than gasoline emissions.

Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States | PNAS

edit/add on another point: I do appreciate that Musk has 'stirred up' the industry. I want Over-the-air (or at least DYI flash drive) updates. It seems ridiculous in this day and age that I need to schedule an appointment, and maybe pay a high fee for a firmware update.


-ERD50

 

[Aerides]

I no longer own TSLA. I dumped my few shares the first time he called the UK helper in the Thai cave rescue a "pedophile". Everything he's done since then shows someone with a questionable temperament:

Tweeting/musing about going private
Calling the same guy a child rapist
Smoking/drinking on a podcast

I don't care about either of these events in and of themselves. I do care that a CEO thinks "i can and should do this and it's fine". I like to put my money behind CEO's that show they think 2 steps ahead, if not 7. I don't mind risk in business decisions, but these are unforced errors.

Also, I think he's an *******, so there's that (yes don't at me I know all CEO's probably are, but he's broadcasting it and showing off and it's not a good look).

 

[kgtest]

Nothing about TSLA to me is attractive. Especially their products and their CEO. And when you have 3 CFOs in two months. RUN, don't walk to the door. I need to double check my ETFs and indexes to see if I have any TSLA in those. I sure hope not.

 

[kgtest]

So I don't understand why anyone would say that want EVs to succeed. What problem do they solve? They are not the environmental panacea that so many think they are, they are probably worse for the environment than a good hybrid, and a hybrid doesn't have the issues of range anxiety, initial cost, charger access, etc.



-ERD50

I think he wanted to create EV as a Service, and we've seen it fail miserably.



The one thing about EVs is it takes more rare earth's/metals to produce than a standard gasoline vehicle. If we are comparing consuming precious resourceA vs precious resourceB then EV is not salable by that idea alone.


The only way to grow is to expand and I never saw the potential myself. Now do I believe in self-driving features, YES...that software could actually make an impact to traffic flows and efficiency, which is how any company/country should be measured. Growth + Efficiency.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have not set foot inside a Tesla car nor looked at one that close, but from what I have read from the Web they are not bad cars.

It's just that they are expensive. For the same price, other manufacturers could have build the same. I think they did not do that because they underestimated the willingness of a small market segment to pay top dollars for a high-performance EV.

When Musk exhausted that market tier, he knew he had to reach down to the masses to continue Tesla's growth. That remains to be seen.

 

[kgtest]

I have not set foot inside a Tesla car nor look at one that close, but from what I have read from the Web they are not bad cars.

It's just that they are expensive. For the same price, other manufacturers could have build the same. I think they did not do that because they underestimated the willingness of a small market segment to pay top dollars for a high-performance EV.

When Musk exhausted that market tier, he knew he had to reach down to the masses to continue Tesla's growth. That remains to be seen.

Just for comparison...I took delivery on a GMC 2500 HD, it costs less than a TSLA(42k out the door), and at 915lb ft of torque...I didn't have to take the day off to take delivery, I worked remote from the GMC dealer while they completed the paperwork. I didn't have to put a deposit into Elon Musk's bank account while I was waiting either, I drove there, and it took about 3 hours to complete the purchase. I suppose I do have to occasionally wait for the diesel pump to free up (So we have that in common)... but when it does it takes me 3 minutes to fill. I can drive halfway across the country on one fill. Every single time.


American made.



Time is money.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

I totally agree that Musk inspires many to believe in the product in the same way Steve Jobs elevated Apple and Bezos elevated Amazon. I don't take issue with balanced criticism of Musk. To be taken seriously, however, I think such criticism needs to go beyond the salacious headlines and into the merits of the actual product/service being sold.

Regarding being in the red, I recall that that was the big hit on Amazon for many years, as well. Those who are still believing in Tesla (myself included) are doing so because they see a huge future market and a company that is well positioned to take advantage of that market.

You are a fan of Tesla? I couldn't really glean than from your posts...

I don't think Musk can be really compared to the likes of Besos and Jobs. My belief is that Tesla will be yet another fine example of "First to market doesn't mean best in market".

 

[REWahoo]

I can drive halfway across the country on one fill. Every single time.

Mine has a 36 gallon tank. What size did you get?

 

[bobandsherry]

Wonder how folks fare with Tesla's out of warranty.

Hopefully they are good at fixing the car. My understanding is that not many mechanics will work on them. Can owners get full circuit diagrams for the car? Diagnostic tools are likely proprietary, and unobtanium. Spare parts, how is the supply?

I'd be more concerned if I was a Tesla owner about what I do for service if Tesla goes bust. Convertible stock coming due soon, with common stock well below the convertible price so Tesla will need to come up with a load of cash. The market isn't showing a lot of confidence in Tesla/Musk so may be difficult for Tesla to raise additional capital. If that happens this will just implode.

 

[bobandsherry]

You are a fan of Tesla? I couldn't really glean than from your posts...

I don't think Musk can be really compared to the likes of Besos and Jobs. My belief is that Tesla will be yet another fine example of "First to market doesn't mean best in market".

First to market is usually first to being slaughtered. Pioneers get arrows, settlers get the land.

 

[bobandsherry]

Musk let's everyone know how many hours he works, according to him even sleeping at the factory. Not sure how a guy that spends that much time working finds the time to go on some podcast to drink and smoke. Maybe that's what he considers "working".

 

[NW-Bound]

First to market is usually first to being slaughtered. Pioneers get arrows, settlers get the land.

"The second mouse gets the cheese" -- Anon.

But someone has to be first, right? Life is never fair.

Musk let's everyone know how many hours he works, according to him even sleeping at the factory. Not sure how a guy that spends that much time working finds the time to go on some podcast to drink and smoke. Maybe that's what he considers "working".

Even hardworkers need some time to chill out, so perhaps the public needs to cut him some slack. I wonder if he inhaled. Did anyone see the video?

 

[Chuckanut]

In what manner is Tesla "well-positioned" to take advantage of this huge market that does not presently exist?

Write or wrong, whether we like it or not, there is huge market for EV's in Europe and parts of Asia. While that may not be HUGE with all Caps, it is a lot bigger than the USA alone.

 

[NW-Bound]

Tesla? I have no idea what will happen to it. I do hope it succeeds. And if it fails I hope Mr. Musk puts all his formidable talents into SpaceX.

I dunno. SpaceX has been doing fine without Musk living and sleeping at its plant. I suspect that SpaceX engineers would cringe to think of Musk being there 24/7 to help them.

 

[Chuckanut]

I dunno. SpaceX has been doing fine without Musk living and sleeping at its plant. I suspect that SpaceX engineers would cringe to think of Musk being there 24/7 to help them.

Good point.

I think a lot of SpaceX's success goes to his employees in general and his 2nd in command - Gwenn Shotwell.

 

[JoeWras]

So I don't understand why anyone would say that want EVs to succeed. What problem do they solve?

I don't understand why anyone would say "anyone". That's pretty strong language there, friend.


Seriously, I've made it clear in past posts that EVs are out for me unless they can be fully "filled up" in less than 5 minutes.


What I do like about EVs is the advantage of the powertrain having direct drive with high torque motors. It is another choice for an auto customer, and a different style of driving.



So, to answer... They solve the transmission and torque problem.



I don't care about the environmental so-called advantage. When you factor in all the lithium mining and other crap, they may be a total disaster for all I know.

 

[oneill225]

EV Market

Many of the comments remind me of my mom, back in the 70's, asking why she needed a microwave oven when she already had a perfectly good regular oven.

Electric vehicles will quickly replace internal combustion cars and trucks over the next 10 years or so. Why? Because they are faster than any current muscle car, create no noise pollution or exhaust gases, and require less maintenance.

The issues of range and charging are fading as battery technology evolves and charging stations become faster and more available.

Regardless of your views on Tesla, EVs are here to stay and will proliferate.

Tesla it the current technology leader in the EV area. That could change, of course, but they hold numerous patents and the Tesla EVs are presold months out.

Is Tesla comparable to Amazon's early years? Of course. The early knock on Amazon was that is wasn't making a profit (like Tesla). Amazon wasn't making a profit because they poured their revenue back into building out the necessary infrastructure (like Tesla).

Time will tell, but the demand for EV's and autonomous vehicles will continue to grow and Tesla is currently producing the best EVs and autonomous vehicles.

 

[bobandsherry]

Many of the comments remind me of my mom, back in the 70's, asking why she needed a microwave oven when she already had a perfectly good regular oven.

Electric vehicles will quickly replace internal combustion cars and trucks over the next 10 years or so. Why? Because they are faster than any current muscle car, create no noise pollution or exhaust gases, and require less maintenance.

The issues of range and charging are fading as battery technology evolves and charging stations become faster and more available.

Regardless of your views on Tesla, EVs are here to stay and will proliferate.

Tesla it the current technology leader in the EV area. That could change, of course, but they hold numerous patents and the Tesla EVs are presold months out.

Is Tesla comparable to Amazon's early years? Of course. The early knock on Amazon was that is wasn't making a profit (like Tesla). Amazon wasn't making a profit because they poured their revenue back into building out the necessary infrastructure (like Tesla).

Time will tell, but the demand for EV's and autonomous vehicles will continue to grow and Tesla is currently producing the best EVs and autonomous vehicles.

This thread is thoughts on Tesla, not EV. Still many hurdles for EV to overcome for mainstream in US anyways. But strictly looking at Tesla, they are only EV and have bet the farm on it. It is a decent car, but it, like the Tesla stock, is still overpriced.

 

[oneill225]

Tesla is not just EV, they also produce battery systems, solar panels and other systems. Short-sighted to think that Tesla and other EVs will not get more competitive with their pricing over time. Tesla is an investment in the future.

 

[NW-Bound]

Musk deserves the credit for boldly going where nobody dared before. And I am sure that his talking it up convinced investors to provide the capital to start these businesses. If not Musk, then someone else like him would be that 1st guy to promote EV's. You have to be a daring type, and willing to take some "arrows" to create a new industry.

The engineering successes come from his teams of engineers however. Musk has the ideas, but carrying them to fruition requires expertise that he himself does not have. CEOs often take all the credit, particularly as they are the only figure that the public sees.

At this point, Tesla is synonymous with Musk. Can Tesla continue on without Musk? People start to raise these questions. I think Musk is cracking under the pressure. Quite a bit of it is self-inflicted however. Can't he just lay low for a while, and not make dump statements and tweets?

It takes a certain "can-do" attitude to do what he has done, but can there be too much bravado? And does he have any confidante, any real friend that he can talk to and take some advices from? The image I see of him is someone who thinks he's smarter than anybody, and will not listen to anyone.

If Tesla runs into hard times, I feel more sorry for the people working there to design and build the products.

 

[MI-Roger]

Time will tell, but the demand for EV's and autonomous vehicles will continue to grow and Tesla is currently producing the best EVs and autonomous vehicles.

Tesla currently has the best EV's, to that I will agree.

I was not aware that any manufacturer had autonomous vehicles ready for market, and Tesla's autopilot software has shown itself to have problems (such as inability to identify lane markers from miscellaneous spurious paint marks on the pavement).

I was thinking the other day about the best first application of autonomous vehicles, and Subways came to mind. No cross traffic, no on-coming traffic, known start and stop locations, weather protected roadways (tracks) for the most part, yet I have heard nothing about a serious movement for autonomous subways. Instead, the focus is on the least protected, least controlled, and least safe mode of transportation - private automobiles!

 

[Chuckanut]

Many of the comments remind me of my mom, back in the 70's, asking why she needed a microwave oven when she already had a perfectly good regular oven.

Electric vehicles will quickly replace internal combustion cars and trucks over the next 10 years or so.

Of course, you realize that Microwave ovens did not replace ordinary ovens. They were another tool to be used where appropriate (and, alas, where not appropriate). Please, no more microwaved pizza.

 

[JoeWras]

The engineering successes come from his teams of engineers however. Musk has the ideas, but carrying them to fruition requires expertise that he himself does not have. CEOs often take all the credit, particularly as they are the only figure that the public sees.

He can also burn them out. Same with production. Same with accounting. They may not be aligned to working 24 hour days and then relaxing with a nice whiskey and blunt.

If they are working for options, a falling stock price is really troublesome.

 

[oneill225]

True

Of course, you realize that Microwave ovens did not replace ordinary ovens. They were another tool to be used where appropriate (and, alas, where not appropriate). Please, no more microwaved pizza.

Fair enough. I concede that a few gas driven vehicles may survive the EV revolution.