Thoughts on TESLA

[copyright1997reloaded]

While I won't short it, as many shorts are wiped out waiting for reality to set in, regardless of how well they do I can't see myself pulling the buy trigger on this (or Amazon for that matter). I'm just too conservative an investor to go for these at their premiums.

I have a decent position in Apple (six figures), but bought it when it had $13 a share in cash and was selling for $19 or so. [This was back in 2001.] That is, it was a value play. Unfortunately I sold some along the way, but was smart/luck enough to keep some.

 

[Fedup]

I've shorted Telsa, Amazon and made money in the past, by mostly buying puts, but a few contracts. But I watched them like a hawk. Sold them in a day or less. I usually do that on high price stocks. When I say make money, it's less than $1500, IIRC. Enough for me to buy business/ first class ticket to Euro. It's definitely Las Vegas money.

 

[Zathras]

IIRC, you're also a Model S car owner? If you're who I think, I know you're very knowledgeable on Tesla.

I do own a Model S and plan to replace it with a Model 3 in about a year.
My wife drives a Model X and I am also a share holder.
Thank you for the comment, I like to think I am

My guess is that at some point Tesla will be purchased by a major auto company for its technology. To bad as that will probably be the kiss of death for Tesla.

Mr. Musk has made it clear that in the long run his BIG goal is SpaceX. He wants to insure the survival of the human race in case that asteroid that messes up our Firecalc tested plans really does hit us.

Mr. Musk's long term goal is to help insure the survival of the human race. A big part of that is SpaceX as we are currently one asteroid away from the end of mankind.
Acceleration of our transportation is another big part of the survival of mankind, or at least of our society.
While he may leave Tesla, I don't see him selling to another car company. First, the price is too high.
Second, I don't know of any manufacturers that would want Tesla Energy, which is fast becoming integral to Tesla's mission.

As for the comparison made by many, of growth stocks and gambling. It is not. It is speculative.
I suppose some may not look into the company details at all and just throw a dart to pick. Then yes, that would be gambling.
Just because you don't like growth stock investing don't dismiss it.
And yes, growth stocks are much riskier and value stocks. Many more fail, but for those that do their research, the risk is well worth it.

 

[JoeWras]

Tell me about it. Look at my user name. Draw your own conclusions as to my employer!

According to your avatar, you are the #1 tester of ACME products.

 

[OldShooter]

... As for the comparison made by many, of growth stocks and gambling. It is not. It is speculative. ...

As Google gives me this for "speculative:"

"2. (of an investment) involving a high risk of loss."

Call it what you like.

... Just because you don't like growth stock investing don't dismiss it. ...

It's not a matter of taste. The statistical fact is that as investments, growth stocks lose significantly to the overall market and even more vs small caps and value stocks.

... And yes, growth stocks are much riskier and value stocks. Many more fail, but for those that do their research, the risk is well worth it.

There are thousands of professionals "doing their research" with far more information and far greater resources than you could possible have. Strong odds are that, at whatever price you buy or sell, your counterparty is a professional who knows more than you do. IMO small investors who believe they know more than the pros are deluding themselves.

The math remains: Winning on a few dozen trades, which certainly happens, is not statistically significant. IOW skill is indistinguishable from luck in a small sample set. If you're winning, good for you, but it's most probably due to luck.

Zathras, if you are winning that's great. But posts like this are like the casino billboards that show big winners with big checks. People do win, but statistically speaking most of them do not. Hardly anyone ever posts about how much money they lost "speculating" in growth stocks. But there is an unending supply of optimists coming through the casino (or growth stock trading) doors and on average they come out poorer than when they went in.

There is quite a good book called "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb. One of his themes is people who have gotten lucky and, from that, concluded that they are geniuses. (Nassim can be kind of a lunatic, but its a worthwhile read.)

 

[NYEXPAT]

Tell me about it. Look at my user name. Draw your own conclusions as to my employer!

That was an easy one!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Looney_Tunes#/media/File:Looney_tunes_careta.png

 

[NW-Bound]

Speaking of the human kind surviving by escaping into space, I recall the movie Interstellar.

 

[swakyaby]

I do own a Model S and plan to replace it with a Model 3 in about a year.

Curious as to why you plan to replace the Model S with a Model 3?

 

[Zathras]

...

There are thousands of professionals "doing their research" with far more information and far greater resources than you could possible have. Strong odds are that, at whatever price you buy or sell, your counterparty is a professional who knows more than you do. IMO small investors who believe they know more than the pros are deluding themselves.
...

In no way was my post meant to say I thought I knew more, or even as much, as the pros.
What I was saying, is that if anyone is investing without information, that is gambling.
If you have knowledge of the company, you lower your risk. Please note I did not say "eliminate".

Curious as to why you plan to replace the Model S with a Model 3?

The Model 3 is more efficient, less expensive and I prefer a smaller car.

 

[Rustic23]

For me it comes down to "If you wouldn't buy the product, don't buy the company". Tesla is on top of the EV world now. But will it be there when all the other manufactures are in? What will there sales look like when the subsidies are gone? So I would sit this one out. However, you might consider my record, I sat Apple also!

 

[Running_Man]

 

[Zathras]

For me it comes down to "If you wouldn't buy the product, don't buy the company". Tesla is on top of the EV world now. But will it be there when all the other manufactures are in? What will there sales look like when the subsidies are gone? So I would sit this one out. However, you might consider my record, I sat Apple also!

That was my biggest concern back in 2010 and again in 2012.
Even now, there is very little competition out there.
As for incentives, I don't see that as much of an issue for Tesla.
It will slow sales somewhat, bit cars in the $35k to $140k price points will be less affected than cars shooting for the sub $30k market.
Or perhaps they will cut their 25% gross margin to 15%.

 

[LiveBelowMeans]

The auto industry is littered with companies that tried to break in and eventually went bankrupt. (Delorean, Bricklin etc). Having said that, what Elon and Tesla have done is a miracle. The stock valuation, however makes no sense. Insane stock price. Purely a crap shoot. Who will be left holding the bag when it implodes. JMHO

 

[petershk]

I have a Model X and love it. I think Tesla is a great company and I think Elon Musk has great ideas and ability to overcome huge obstacles.

I don't now and don't plan on buying any stock, though.

Why? Because I have no way of having a reasonable chance of predicting the value of the company. It COULD replace the way we use energy as we know it. It COULD go bankrupt (it almost happened on several occasions in the past and Musk talks about that honestly).

At current prices I feel that the very optimistic side of the story has to unfold for things to make sense. For me, that's something I avoid as a general rule. There ARE comparisons to Apple, but Apple was profitable pretty early on in the iPhone/iPad cycle. Making a phone where your manufacturing is outsourced and you have high margins from brand recognition and competitors that have to play catch up is VERY different than a high OPEX industry with thin profit margins and established competition. I don't think it's THAT hard for Ford, BMW, Audi, GM, etc to catch up with Tesla's technology. And I'm not sure that Tesla has a brand value that is THAT much bigger than Proshe, BMW, or Audi.

When we have fully autonomous electric Audis, BMWs and Porsches that also get 2.5 0-60s, look really cool and have all the bells and whistles, I'm not sure Tesla will be that differentiated. The supercharger network is a pretty big advantage and having huge ability to manufacture batteries is impressive as well... but both of those are high capex expenses, not profit centers.

So I don't understand where Tesla's billions of cash flow will come from and if it's from narrow margins on car sales, that's a scary bet. I think ALL of the surviving car companies have gone bankrupt wiping out share holders at one or more times in the past. I believe that Tesla will survive and will continue to make awesome technology that I will love to use, but I'm not so sure that shareholders will continue to have such a great ride.

 

[Car-Guy]

I do own a Model S and plan to replace it with a Model 3 in about a year.
My wife drives a Model X and I am also a share holder.

So as a Tesla owner, (or anyone else that "really" knows) maybe you can give me honest real world answers. I know next to nothing about Tesla's so forgive me if I ask some stupid questions.

I understand some models have a fully charged range of 300+ miles. I've also read the quickest models can do 0 to 60 mph in 2.5 secs (very impressive) and have a top speed of 150+ mph (also pretty impressive).

So, with the best performance model they have, if you make half a dozen spirited 0-60 flat out runs and/or kick it up to the ~140 mph range for a few miles once or twice on a charge, how does that affect the ~300 mile distance between charges? True enough that gasoline powered cars will use more gas when driven harder, but I understand that. How does the same spirited driving translate with the best Tesla's range? (And yes, maybe a little crazy, but there are a lot of drivers out there that drive like this "sometimes" so this does happen more often than you might suspect)

Also, how long does it take to fully charge nearly drained batteries at a supercharger station? To be honest, I drive a lot and have never seen a supercharger station, although I understand there are a couple in the area (within 75 miles) according to the maps I've seen.

 

[Zathras]

...

So, with the best performance model they have, if you make half a dozen spirited 0-60 flat out runs and/or kick it up to the 140+ mph range for a few miles once or twice on a charge, how does that affect the ~300 mile distance between changes? True enough that gasoline powered cars will use more gas when driven harder, but I understand that. How does the same spirited driving translate with the best Tesla's range?

Pretty much exactly as it would affect any gas car.
If you cut the fuel efficiency 20% due to spirited driving you would cut the range 20%.
Actually, a little less, or more depending upon circumstances. ICE engines have horrid efficiency outside of their peak efficiency RPM bands. Electrics not only have a much better efficiency peak (3 times or so), but it is a much gentler slope, almost flat in comparison. So the spirited starts won't loose you much range.
The high speeds will though, with a vengeance. At 140mph cars get about 1/3 the efficiency vs 55mph. So a 300 mile Tesla would probably get about 110 miles at a constant 140. If you typically drive those speeds I wouldn't suggest electric.

Also, how long does it take to fully charge nearly drained batteries at a supercharger station? To be honest, I drive a lot and have never seen a supercharger station, although I understand they are a couple in the area (within 75 miles) according to the maps I've seen.

I've never noticed a cigar shop either, although I have never looked for one
It takes 20-30 minutes to get enough range to reach the next supercharger (150-170 miles). The charge slows down as you charge, so a full charge (300 miles) takes about an hour and 10 minutes. We have only stuck around for a full charge once in the last 4+ years.

I last used one about 6 months ago. We used to each drive about 18,000 miles a year and we rarely used a supercharger. Basically only on long trips.
If you don't have a place to charge at home or work, buying an EV may not be more convenient than a gas car.
If you can charge at home or work, the added convenience is amazing.

 

[petershk]

So as a Tesla owner, (or anyone else that "really" knows) maybe you can give me honest real world answers. I know next to nothing about Tesla's so forgive me if I ask some stupid questions.

I get about 230 miles/charge on my model X P90. I charge at night at about 25 mi/hour so for daily use I don't notice it vs. going to a gas station.

I commute to work once a week about 60 miles in each direction. If I drive fast, or "have fun" it has a pretty big impact on the battery. Usually I'll have about 20% charge left when I come home. So I drive about 130 miles and use 80% so I'm technically burning about 184 of those 230 miles even though I'm only driving about 130-140 miles.

I don't normally use the crazy acceleration or speed. Traffic + Family + Common Sense prevent it .

I have taken several trips up the coast of California including in remote areas. You have to plan more... you have to anticipate about an extra 50-70 minutes every 3-4 hours for charging. This SOUNDS like a lot, but rarely did it interfere much. Consider your normal vacation driving. You stop every 3-4 hours anyway... pee breaks, coffee, snacks, fill up on gas. Rarely are you out of the gas station/restaurant/coffee place in less than 30 minutes. So it's really an extra 20 minutes on top of that. What it does is slow down your "hurry up and get to our destination" way of thinking and because superchargers are occasionally in out of the way places, you see places you otherwise wouldn't.

In very rural areas (for example my wife and I took a trip up the north coast of Cali) you have to get more creative. Hotels have chargers... they can be slow... they can be broken. Local places might or might not have them. Many people have no idea what you are talking about. I've never run out of power, but I have had many hours of anxiety about it. Also, because Tesla uses internet extensively, losing internet connection makes it harder to find charging places, etc.

I LIKE new technology and bought my Tesla expecting a very expensive Beta test. So far it's been a very satisfying and successful beta, but it's not nearly as convenient or fire and forget as buying a Honda or Toyota... you have to WANT to experience new technology from both the pros and cons... and despite what some people say... the zero gasoline cost will never overcome the cost of the car itself . It's not an economical decision by any stretch of the imagination. I used to buy high end PCs to play the newest video games... well still do... this is kinda like that .

 

[Car-Guy]

Pretty much exactly as it would affect any gas car.
If you cut the fuel efficiency 20% due to spirited driving you would cut the range 20%.
Actually, a little less, or more depending upon circumstances. ICE engines have horrid efficiency outside of their peak efficiency RPM bands. Electrics not only have a much better efficiency peak (3 times or so), but it is a much gentler slope, almost flat in comparison. So the spirited starts won't loose you much range.
The high speeds will though, with a vengeance. At 140mph cars get about 1/3 the efficiency vs 55mph. So a 300 mile Tesla would probably get about 110 miles at a constant 140. If you typically drive those speeds I wouldn't suggest electric.



I've never noticed a cigar shop either, although I have never looked for one

It takes 20-30 minutes to get enough range to reach the next supercharger (150-170 miles). The charge slows down as you charge, so a full charge (300 miles) takes about an hour and 10 minutes. We have only stuck around for a full charge once in the last 4+ years.

I get about 230 miles/charge on my model X P90. I charge at night at about 25 mi/hour so for daily use I don't notice it vs. going to a gas station.

I commute to work once a week about 60 miles in each direction. If I drive fast, or "have fun" it has a pretty big impact on the battery. Usually I'll have about 20% charge left when I come home. So I drive about 130 miles and use 80% so I'm technically burning about 184 of those 230 miles even though I'm only driving about 130-140 miles.



I LIKE new technology and bought my Tesla expecting a very expensive Beta test. So far it's been a very satisfying and successful beta, but it's not nearly as convenient or fire and forget as buying a Honda or Toyota... you have to WANT to experience new technology from both the pros and cons... and despite what some people say... the zero gasoline cost will never overcome the cost of the car itself . It's not an economical decision by any stretch of the imagination. I used to buy high end PCs to play the newest video games... well still do... this is kinda like that .

Thanks, your answers pretty much answered my questions and is about what I expected, except that it took so long for a full charge at a supercharging station.

As an FYI, even a Corvette will burn an entire tank a gas in less than 100 miles running near it's top speeds.

And yes, even though I don't smoke, I have noticed a few cigar shops around.

 

[6miths]

Stopped buying individual stocks over 10 years ago. Love Musk's ideas.

 

[Texas Proud]

I decided to look... there are two charging stations in Houston.... one at a 'viewing' location...

But, Dallas/Ft. Worth has zero (one north in Denton, but that is a drive)... Austin has zero, San Antonio has zero... they seem to be in some smaller towns...


SOOO, the comment that you would be stopping anyhow etc. etc. does not compute to me... you have to drive a specific route in order to get to the next charging station... if you wan to go a different way that might be faster.... well, you are SOL....


To add.... if you live down where my sister lives then you have to drive 50 plus miles to get to the charging station.... if that is not your home base...

 

[Animorph]

We're in the middle of a trip with our Model X 100D. 2000+ miles so far. I don't think we made significant detours in order to hit Superchargers. They pretty much line the expected long distance routes, minus a few gaps.

At our current stop we're plugged into a normal 120V 15A socket in the garage. That gets us about 3 miles per hour of charging. Enough to drive around normally for us. At the next stop we'll have a Supercharger about 5 miles away, so we'll use that.

Most of the Superchargers have been behind hotels or restaurants or tucked away in mall parking lots. You're not likely to see them. There are also plenty of slow "destination" chargers that can charge you overnight but you wouldn't want to wait for otherwise.

We make about 4 stops for charging a day. Two of those stops are for lunch and dinner and take longer than the charge requires. That leaves two stops we have to wait for 30 minutes or so. Good time to walk around a bit.

 

[aja8888]

We're in the middle of a trip with our Model X 100D. 2000+ miles so far. I don't think we made significant detours in order to hit Superchargers. They pretty much line the expected long distance routes, minus a few gaps.

At our current stop we're plugged into a normal 120V 15A socket in the garage. That gets us about 3 miles per hour of charging. Enough to drive around normally for us. At the next stop we'll have a Supercharger about 5 miles away, so we'll use that.

Most of the Superchargers have been behind hotels or restaurants or tucked away in mall parking lots. You're not likely to see them. There are also plenty of slow "destination" chargers that can charge you overnight but you wouldn't want to wait for otherwise.

We make about 4 stops for charging a day. Two of those stops are for lunch and dinner and take longer than the charge requires. That leaves two stops we have to wait for 30 minutes or so. Good time to walk around a bit.

Sounds like the car is controlling YOUR schedule. Shouldn't it be the other way around?

 

[Zathras]

Sounds like the car is controlling YOUR schedule. Shouldn't it be the other way around?

"Schedules" and routes are always affected by your mode of transportation.
With most cars, you are limited to driving where there are roads.
With gas cars, your car "controls" how often you stop.
"Control" as you can see is a poor word to use. Yes, it sets some boundaries. And influences your schedule, but neither presence of gas station, or electrical outlets "control" your schedule.

When we drove out to California and back, there were some supercharger we skipped, and others we stopped at.
In addition, we only were waiting for the car to complete charging once (out of about 30 stops).
In exchange, I have not had to stop for fuel a single day outside long trips, once in four years

 

[Texas Proud]

/snip/
In exchange, I have not had to stop for fuel a single day outside long trips, once in four years

Then again I do not have to take time to plug in my car every day when I get home... not unplug my car when I am ready to go.... I do not drive much now so unless we are going somewhere that is a distance I can go 2 or 3 weeks per fill up... and that is less than 10 minutes... I would be that I spend less time 'filling up' my car than you do...

 

[6miths]

In exchange, I have not had to stop for fuel a single day outside long trips, once in four years

This is a great trade off IMHO. For all most all of a person's regular driving there will never be another stop at a gas station! Wow!