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Time to sell some of this?
Old 03-24-2020, 02:00 PM   #1
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Time to sell some of this?

Dead cat bounce happening today. I haven't sold anything yet during this panic, but now am wondering if it's time to sell some of the funds I have if they are still in a positive position overall.

To set the stage, our portfolio has gone down about 24% from the high as of last nights close (3/23/20).

My current allocation is 10.2% cash, 11.8% bonds, 46.7% blended (ie Wellesley) and 31.3% stock (mostly index funds).

I know one can't time the market, but all pointers look like lower levels are in our future.

The cash on hand can probably cover 2 to 2.5 years expenses.

WWYD?
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:03 PM   #2
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Sit tight. You have plenty of cash. Selling low is a bad strategy
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:11 PM   #3
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I agree with the "Dead cat bounce" theory, because we have many more dark days ahead of us with Covid19. There is no cure yet, and no vaccine to prevent a second round this fall. Most of us are just starting (or haven't started yet) our 14 day isolation, and the majority of businesses are closed, so the economic impact hasn't hit yet.

There are many folks who will be in grave financial trouble, just because of the reduced unemployment amount they receive each week....they live that close to losing it all.

2-2.5 years from now when your money might be running short, the market will have regained all of it's losses, plus some.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:19 PM   #4
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I sold a small amount today, about $30K worth, will buy back in tomorrow when it drops 5%-10% (my guess) , or wait until after the unemployment report comes out.

Part of the rally is just people hoping that doing something will help.
I know I am feeling Covid-19 Fatique... I see another 10K+ people infected here in USA and it no longer bothers me.. as it's expected..
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:39 PM   #5
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I put in a buy order on a muni bond today. There are some bargains out there.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:47 PM   #6
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I believe today was a dead cat. However it was a nice break from the falling knife buying I've been doing lately. As far as selling goes- no.
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Old 03-24-2020, 03:26 PM   #7
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Darn computer took a crap this afternoon before I could put in a sell order. Actually, that is mostly a convenient excuse. We have some mutual funds in DWs account that she wants to sell and put into her favorite stock, so not really changing allocation or anything, just shuffling the chairs on the deck. There will be more opportunities, I think.


I just don't see where there is any good news in the fundamentals to support the stock market taking off and running again. Maybe that is the signal that it is at the bottom, when all I see is doom and gloom?
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:10 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
I sold a small amount today, about $30K worth, will buy back in tomorrow when it drops 5%-10% (my guess) , or wait until after the unemployment report comes out.
Yes, I might do a rebalance on Thursday...

But I think it's a terrible time to get out of the market. It's time to keep eyes open for buying opportunities into the summer.
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:02 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by tominboise View Post
... now am wondering if it's time to sell some of the funds I have if they are still in a positive position overall. ... our portfolio has gone down about 24% from the high as of last nights close ....
Sunk cost fallacy. The market neither knows nor cares what your cost was. Ignore sunk cost when making decisions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost

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Originally Posted by tominboise View Post
I know one can't time the market ...
So you're going to try it anyway?


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WWYD?
Same thing I have done for every one of these since the first one I saw in 1987: Nothing. Prior to retirement we were close to 100% equities, so no opportunity to rebalance. After retirement we were 60/40 for a while then more recently 75/25. In trying times, we view the fixed side as a bucket containing enough money to carry us through most dips.

Advice? Listen to @brokrken
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Old 03-24-2020, 05:06 PM   #10
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I am planning on doing nothing - just need the club to reinforce the decision.
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Old 03-24-2020, 08:36 PM   #11
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Always buy on fear. When there is blood in the water, it's time to jump in.
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Old 03-24-2020, 08:41 PM   #12
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I continue to buy (micro-rebalancing directionally; also called microdosing).. today could be a bear-market rally. But everything I own is below the water line - selling IS NOT AN OPTION.
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Old 03-24-2020, 09:11 PM   #13
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... everything I own is below the water line - selling IS NOT AN OPTION.
Why would you say that? The market doesn't know what you paid.
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Old 03-25-2020, 03:20 AM   #14
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If it opens much higher today I will probably buy some more SPY puts. I like them as they are insurance in my view. Expensive insurance as the premiums are out of sight these days.

Equities for me are now 29%of my portfolio vs 55% on feb 1st. I sold a bunch combined with losses on what I did not sell.

I want to maintain some equity position thru this crises. And buying the puts effectively lets me do that and keeps a floor on my losses.
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Old 03-25-2020, 04:40 AM   #15
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This may not have been the low, but just wait it out. If you did sell, when would you get back in? We know that this will end and the market will recover. In a year there will be a vaccine. The financial crisis took longer to resolve than that and look at the market that followed.
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