No need to get fancy, Total US+ Total International are perfect but don't invest in equities if you need $$$ in 5 years.
This. Exactly this.
I'm not sure what you mean by "savvy investors" ...
Well I was just using the OP's term, but I would say that savvy investors understand two things:
First, that the most important thing is to not lose money. Lots of gurus, including Buffett, have given this advice. That's not to say that following the advice is always easy, but it does and should color investing decisions.
Second, as William Bernstein has observed, the objective of investing for retirement is not to get rich. It is to not get poor.
Speculators/traders beliefs are in sharp contrast to these. Where an investor will hold a diversified portfolio, a speculator abhors such an approach. He wants to identify and hold a few winners, each in large enough proportion to significantly affect his portfolio. That is the essence of stock-picking. Bernstein again:
“Do you think that by choosing a portfolio of only a few stocks that you hope will score big, you are maximizing your chances of becoming wealthy? Indeed you are, but you are also maximizing the chances of a retirement of cat food cuisine”
I can tell you this: Had I not paid attention to what stocks I was buying, I never would have retired 20 years ago (and stayed retired). I wouldn't own 4 nice (non-income producing) residential properties and have 2 newer Teslas in the driveway. And I wouldn't have any medical insurance that wasn't through active employment. In short, retirement would not have been possible until at least 60 years old. ...
Nice anecdote. I'll even assume that it is true. But I think you'd agree that it is irrelevant to the average investor. There will always be spectacular winners, but they are statistically rare and IMO the OP would be extremely unwise to assume that he will be one of them.