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Fun with numbers
Old 06-06-2018, 06:07 PM   #1
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Fun with numbers

Nothing else to do today, so wandering around the internet for stuff that has to do with money... found two unrelated items that are confusing to me.

Has to do with inflation and the dollar bill. Looking at the past ten years, it looks like inflation has gone up nearly 10%, while during the same period the United States Debt has gone up about 100% to $231 trillion..
.......................................
edit
per Zinger1457... the "3" snuck in there... s/b 21Trillion
.......................................

The per-taxpayer part of that US debt has gone from $94K to $174k.

Average income has gone up approximately 25% over the same period

Yes... of course the numbers aren't comparable, but food for thought. Debt to GDP has to be important ... 2008 74%, 2018 105%.

I don't hear these kind of comparisons, so apparently it's not a major concern, but I wonder how those with a 30 year retirement horizon view these numbers.

Other than the fact that we're all in the same boat, is there a simple explanation why the numbers never seem to make the news? Just wonderin'.
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Old 06-06-2018, 06:45 PM   #2
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I sure hope that's a typo! Last I looked the US debt was around $21T
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Old 06-06-2018, 07:17 PM   #3
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I think the numbers do not make news because so few people can understand them, and this especially includes journalists. Most people I know, including many loved ones, have their eyes roll back with any kind of math beyond the most basic calculations. Why this is, I do not know, but it definitely is the case. And so, large numbers of people are therefore easily manipulated by politicians of all stripes to either not care about these issues, or to "care" in very non-productive ways. I expect it will always be so.
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Old 06-06-2018, 07:50 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post

Other than the fact that we're all in the same boat, is there a simple explanation why the numbers never seem to make the news? Just wonderin'.
I suggest that it doesn't make the news because it hasn't collapsed the economy yet. When it does, it will be news.

One cigarette doesn't cause cancer right away. Overeating doesn't cause diabetes instantly. Increasing debt indefinitely doesn't destroy prosperity the first day. Bad strategies work until they don't. Once they stop working, it's news.
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Old 06-06-2018, 08:16 PM   #5
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The debt has been an issue since Ross Perot ran for president. I think it was around 9T at the time. It’s been on the news every time it’s crossed each trillion. People just don’t care because since nothing has happened that anyone has noticed and it has therefore become a bit of boy calling wolf.

It scares me and I think the most likely outcome is inflation. Inflation and higher taxation seem likely to me. The degree is the main question in my mind.
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Old 06-06-2018, 10:09 PM   #6
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I think everyone's eyes glaze over when "millions" is used. My underlings at megacorp always complained about megacorp making millions of dollars. I always replied that they had BILLIONS invested, and millions is the proper return. It always opened a few eyes.
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Old 06-06-2018, 10:34 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry1 View Post
The debt has been an issue since Ross Perot ran for president. I think it was around 9T at the time. It’s been on the news every time it’s crossed each trillion. People just don’t care because since nothing has happened that anyone has noticed and it has therefore become a bit of boy calling wolf.

It scares me and I think the most likely outcome is inflation. Inflation and higher taxation seem likely to me. The degree is the main question in my mind.
We passed $9T sometime in 2008. Ross Perot ran for President most notably in 1992, when the debt was about $4T. We're about $21T today.

Cite: https://www.thebalance.com/national-...events-3306287
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Old 06-06-2018, 11:33 PM   #8
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I remember reading a long time ago that people cannot comprehend large numbers.... maybe even millions....


Saw something on a TV show and they converted to seconds...


1 million seconds is 11.6 days
1 billion seconds is 31.7 years
1 trillion seconds is 31,688 years...


Man has been on the earth for a whopping 6.3 trillion seconds... (200,000 years)



So 21 trillion seconds is 665,448 years... and that is still not comprehensible by most people....




Hope I got the math right
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Old 06-07-2018, 05:00 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
Other than the fact that we're all in the same boat, is there a simple explanation why the numbers never seem to make the news? Just wonderin'.
If you think the National Debt numbers never make the news, then you must not have been looking.
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Old 06-07-2018, 05:22 AM   #10
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I can't really address the National debt issue without inviting porky. This subject leads to areas that are just not discussed here and for good reason.
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Old 06-07-2018, 05:24 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry1 View Post
The debt has been an issue since Ross Perot ran for president.... People just don’t care because since nothing has happened that anyone has noticed and it has therefore become a bit of boy calling wolf.
Predictions of doom never impressed me. Along with flying cars, things never seem to materialize as half as bad/good as the "news" says it will.

My personal view: Despite all the gloom and doom, at the 30,000 foot view, my life and what impacts me hasn't changed all that much in the past 25-30 years. I've got 20 or 25 years to go on this planet; I think I can run out the clock.

I've submitted the following a few times here:

"...The fifties had us looking under our beds in search of Communists and spies.

The sixties had us digging bomb shelters in our backyards, stocking up on food and readying for nuclear attack. If that didn’t happen, we were going to be all starving from massive overpopulation (The Population Bomb) within 20 years.

The seventies brought us warnings about running out of oil. By 2010, all the oil was supposed to be gone and we were going to be living by candlelight and riding bicycles.
The ‘albedo effect’ was going to bring about global cooling not seen since the ice age, which, coupled to the demise of oil, one would assume we’d all freeze to death.
The Saudis were buying up everything and were going to own the entire United States.

In the eighties the AIDS virus was “a mere mutation or two” away from being able to be contracted as easily as the common cold or flu.
Acid rain was turning all our buildings into sand.
The Japanese were buying up everything and were going to own the entire United States.

The nineties saw us worrying about not global cooling but now global warming, which then became climate change.

More recently, we had the BP Gulf oil spill which was billed as “the greatest environmental disaster in the history of mankind”. Until it wasn't.

I'm not saying that many of these issues did not impact certain people, but the severity and “end of life as we know it” never seems to materialize..."
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Old 06-07-2018, 06:54 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry1 View Post
The debt has been an issue since Ross Perot ran for president. I think it was around 9T at the time. It’s been on the news every time it’s crossed each trillion. People just don’t care because since nothing has happened that anyone has noticed and it has therefore become a bit of boy calling wolf.

It scares me and I think the most likely outcome is inflation. Inflation and higher taxation seem likely to me. The degree is the main question in my mind.
Sounds like a good reason to do Roth conversions....
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Old 06-07-2018, 06:58 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
Predictions of doom never impressed me. Along with flying cars, things never seem to materialize as half as bad/good as the "news" says it will.

My personal view: Despite all the gloom and doom, at the 30,000 foot view, my life and what impacts me hasn't changed all that much in the past 25-30 years. I've got 20 or 25 years to go on this planet; I think I can run out the clock.

I've submitted the following a few times here:

"...The fifties had us looking under our beds in search of Communists and spies.

The sixties had us digging bomb shelters in our backyards, stocking up on food and readying for nuclear attack. If that didn’t happen, we were going to be all starving from massive overpopulation (The Population Bomb) within 20 years.

The seventies brought us warnings about running out of oil. By 2010, all the oil was supposed to be gone and we were going to be living by candlelight and riding bicycles.
The ‘albedo effect’ was going to bring about global cooling not seen since the ice age, which, coupled to the demise of oil, one would assume we’d all freeze to death.
The Saudis were buying up everything and were going to own the entire United States.

In the eighties the AIDS virus was “a mere mutation or two” away from being able to be contracted as easily as the common cold or flu.
Acid rain was turning all our buildings into sand.
The Japanese were buying up everything and were going to own the entire United States.

The nineties saw us worrying about not global cooling but now global warming, which then became climate change.

More recently, we had the BP Gulf oil spill which was billed as “the greatest environmental disaster in the history of mankind”. Until it wasn't.

I'm not saying that many of these issues did not impact certain people, but the severity and “end of life as we know it” never seems to materialize..."
Nice post marko, and so true.
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Old 06-07-2018, 08:11 AM   #14
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You mean I can take my bird flu mask off now?
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Old 07-01-2018, 02:58 AM   #15
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marko ,

what is doom for you is opportunity for me

play the cards you have as skillfully as you can

even a bad hand can win with a superior bluff

yes i lose more often but i sometimes win bigger to offset the bad outcomes

cheers


the golden ratio is risk v. reward
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Old 07-01-2018, 03:51 AM   #16
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marko ,

what is doom for you is opportunity for me

play the cards you have as skillfully as you can

even a bad hand can win with a superior bluff

yes i lose more often but i sometimes win bigger to offset the bad outcomes

cheers


the golden ratio is risk v. reward
Sorry, but I have absolutely no idea what you mean within the context of my earlier post.
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Old 07-01-2018, 04:35 AM   #17
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Looking at the past ten years . . United States Debt has gone up about 100% to $21 trillion..


The per-taxpayer part of that US debt has gone from $94K to $174k.

Average income has gone up approximately 25% over the same period

Yes... of course the numbers aren't comparable, but food for thought. Debt to GDP has to be important ... 2008 74%, 2018 105%.
Keep in mind that this is just the direct debt in terms of bonds. There is also the "unfunded liability" of Medicare and Social Security, which is the NPV of future estimated cost less funding. A 2016 Treasury Dept. report estimated this amount at $46.7 trillion.
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Old 07-01-2018, 04:38 AM   #18
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can be taken several ways , but where some see 'noise' ( confusion , and fear ) i see potential for share price movement

IF the share price moves can i take advantage ??

in another scenario all my rivals sit on the sidelines and i am half the game ( i can set my price and wait )

i need to play more often ( now ) as i have to force a positive outcome , others can choose to be more patient .
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Old 07-01-2018, 07:25 PM   #19
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You don’t hear as much about the debt now because no politician of either party wants to face the hard choices. A look at the federal budget “pie” shows the big slices are SS, Medicare, Medicaid and defense. To really cut the deficit and debt, this is where the cuts will have to be. Tinkering around the edges (non-defense discretionary programs) won’t make much difference.

Trivia Question: When did the federal debt first reach $1 trillion?
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Old 07-01-2018, 08:27 PM   #20
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You don’t hear as much about the debt now because no politician of either party wants to face the hard choices. A look at the federal budget “pie” shows the big slices are SS, Medicare, Medicaid and defense. To really cut the deficit and debt, this is where the cuts will have to be. Tinkering around the edges (non-defense discretionary programs) won’t make much difference.

Trivia Question: When did the federal debt first reach $1 trillion?

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...22-1981-243966
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