Predict Market Response to Obama on Feb 24, 2009

[ERD50]

GW Bush approval rating higher than Obama?

I mentioned earlier that I think Obama should be more aggressive in taking advantage of his high approval rating. Since I was following that, I came across this interesting & surprising little factoid:

Presidential Job Approval in Depth

Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval

------------------- Approve--Disapprove--No opinion

2001 Feb 19-21 62----------21-------------17 (Bush)
----------------- 61----------24-------------15 (Obama)


I'm sure it is too early to tie any real significance to this, but it is interesting to me that Bush's approval rating one month in was *higher* (and disapproval lower) than Obama's is one month in.

-ERD50

 

[youbet]

It looks like the market's response to Obama's budget announcement/speech today is similar to the response to his speech Tuesday.

Surprisingly consistent. There's a message here for me regarding my investment approach in retirement and I'm thinking I better listen to it.

 

[ziggy29]

It looks like the market's response to Obama's budget announcement/speech today is similar to the response to his speech Tuesday.

Surprisingly consistent. There's a message here for me regarding my investment approach in retirement and I'm thinking I better listen to it.

IMO, there is one and only one thing the market wants to hear: workable details about how the administration is going to detox the banks. The talk of the last couple of days, while interesting and important, are only a diversion and a side-show to that main event.

Until the uncertainty surrounding the banks is resolved to the market's satisfaction, the water torture will likely continue. [Edit to add: And since announcements like this often come in the last hour of trading, I think part of the selloffs in the last hour are a result of realizing no details are coming today.]

 

[ERD50]

It looks like the market's response to Obama's budget announcement/speech today is similar to the response to his speech Tuesday.

Surprisingly consistent. There's a message here for me regarding my investment approach in retirement and I'm thinking I better listen to it.

It might be time to study the charts, brush up on probability & statistics, and do some day trading around announcements from this admin?

May be the only way to make a buck these days.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

IMO, there is one and only one thing the market wants to hear: workable details about how the administration is going to detox the banks. The talk of the last couple of days, while interesting and important, are only a diversion and a side-show to that main event.

Until the uncertainty surrounding the banks is resolved to the market's satisfaction, the water torture will likely continue.

That may be true. The problem for me is, I really don't understand the banking problems very well, so I'm not sure I would know if a plan was good or not (I use market response to judge that). Safe to say that JoeSixPack is probably less informed than even I am.

But still, I guess I hear the current 'plan' lacks details, so that plays into what you said - not so much a judgment of if it is a good/bad plan, but a detailed plan might be enough.


-ERD50

 

[youbet]

IMO, there is one and only one thing the market wants to hear: workable details about how the administration is going to detox the banks.

I agree that hearing how the admin is going to detox the banks is key. But I think there's something else too. People want to know why this is a good time to invest in a business, why a business you invest in today is going to improve its after tax profit performance so the investment turns out to be a good one. Frankly, given what I've heard from the admin this week, I'm not sure that even if I understood the process for detoxing the banks, I'd be pouring addtional youbet family funds into business(s). At least not until further details of federal budgets, tax policy and "change" manifest themselves and appear to be congruent with improving after tax profitability.

 

[ziggy29]

It might be time to study the charts, brush up on probability & statistics, and do some day trading around announcements from this admin?

May be the only way to make a buck these days.

I don't know. Going short at 3:00 PM and covering at 3:59 seems like it would be pretty profitable, too.