Predict Market Response to Obama on Feb 24, 2009

[ERD50]

Right, I don't think there is a good strategy. Every idea has such major drawbacks that it is easy to pick apart. Doing nothing is also not a good strategy.

But that is the old "we have to do *something*" attitude.

Doing nothing can be better than doing the wrong things. Of course, it would take someone with exceptional communication skills and a high approval rating to be able to articulate that in a positive manner. President Obama sure fits that bill.

You are right that everything can be picked apart. That is why I am so frustrated that this bill is over 1000 pages, how many different "items" are in there?

They need a top ten list. Define it, explain why these are the top ten, and explain why the actions have a reasonable chance of providing a positive outcome.

Further, explain how/when you are going to measure and monitor the results and evaluate it. Explain how you will adapt and change if some things don't seem to be working as planned (or turn out not to be needed), and how you will come up with replacements for those plans.

That ain't rocket science. I think that is exactly what the people and the market would respond to. It wouldn't have to be "right", it would just have to show an honest attempt at attacking the problem in a forthright manner.

Sure, there will some whiners asking for protection for the toy wooden arrow manufacturers in their district. Show some backbone and say (politely) - eff 'em, we got big fish to fry.

C'mon DOW 12,000!

-ERD50

 

[ls99]

I kinda felt sorry for Geithner. Did you ever get called on in class to answer a question about last night's reading--but you hadn't done the reading? Hadn't read the previous night's assignment, either? It's possible to talk for a few minutes about a "plan" that you haven't built yet, but I'm not sure it fools anyone.

:

Note:Bold added by me

I don't feel sorry for his sorry butt. He was declared to be the only one for the job, in spite of his disgusting tax cheat status.

Given that he had to be confirmed [moderator edit] to save us from capitalism, he better damn well have the right answers. And at his fingertips no less.

Obviously, he does not. Nay, he he looks impotent and clueless.

 

[TromboneAl]

Doing nothing can be better than doing the wrong things.

I agree with that. However, in this case I suspect that although much of the money will be wasted, the stimulus will be better than doing nothing.

That is why I am so frustrated that this bill is over 1000 pages...

A lot of people talk about how long it is, and I agree that it should be shorter. However, the "over 1,000 pages" is a little misleading, since there isn't much text on each page, and a lot of the text is governmental gobbledygook. For example, here's a typical page:



Take out the extra spacing, line numbers, and wide margins, and here's what you get:



So, it's now down to about 200 normally formatted pages.

Finally, look at the text of the page, and you'll see that most of it isn't related to what the bill is actually about.

1. REDISTRIBUTION.—The Secretary shall determine an appropriate procedure for redistribution of amounts allocated to States that would otherwise be provided allocations under paragraph (3) for a fiscal year but that do not meet the requirements of paragraph (5).
2. (5) MAINTENANCE OF EFFORT.— (A)  DEFINITION OF SPECIFIED STATE AD- MINISTRATIVE COSTS.—In this paragraph: (i) IN GENERAL.—The term ‘‘specified State administrative costs’’ includes all State administrative costs under the supplemental nutrition assistance program.
3. (ii) EXCLUSIONS.—The term ‘‘specified State administrative costs’’ does not include—
4. (I) the costs of employment and training programs under section 6(d), or of the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 (7 U.S.C. 2015(d), 2029, 2035); (II) the costs of nutrition education under section 11(f) of that Act 23 (7 U.S.C. 2020(f)); and

In other words, the actual bill is more like 100 pages than 1,000 pages, and I'll bet that you could summarize what it does in less that 50 pages.

 

[youbet]

Just watched a White House spokesperson on CSNBC. She danced around questions regarding whether Obama would be more specific aand have more meat in his speech tonight than he and/or Geithner have had in the past. She kept saying he would speak to give the American people hope and inspire them that, together, they can do it......... Attempts to corner her into answering yes or no ref giving details were cleverly avoided.

I hope he has more to say than "the American people can do it" and that he's bringing us "hope." He also needs to spend less time reminding us that he inherited the situation, isn't to blame, etc. We know that. We elected him to lead us out of the quagmire.

 

[ERD50]

Maybe they are learning?

Bernanke Helps Stocks Snap Back - WSJ.com

Bernanke Helps Stocks Snap Back


Stocks recouped the market's heavy losses from the previous session Tuesday after the Federal Reserve chairman talked down the idea of nationalizing top lenders.

Hmm, talk of less government meddling and the market responds. Who'da thunk it?

So I guess the market CAN go up if someone says the right thing.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

A lot of people talk about how long it is, and I agree that it should be shorter. However, the "over 1,000 pages" is a little misleading, since there isn't much text on each page, and a lot of the text is governmental gobbledygook. ....

So, it's now down to about 200 normally formatted pages.

In other words, the actual bill is more like 100 pages than 1,000 pages, and I'll bet that you could summarize what it does in less that 50 pages.

They do seem to like to "kill a lot of trees". Maybe the logging companies are beneficiaries?

I downloaded a copy here:

ARRA: Public Review

That one isn't double spaced, still some wide margins, it comes in at 407 pages.


wiki summaries it pretty well here:

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It still strikes me as an awful lot of micro-management of random programs, rather than any sort of well thought out strategy. I picture just about every member of Congress licking their chops and drooling at a once (whooops! twice, so far!) in a lifetime opportunity to spend staggering sums of money in their districts, all in the name of saving America!

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Just watched a White House spokesperson on CSNBC. She danced around questions regarding whether Obama would be more specific aand have more meat in his speech tonight than he and/or Geithner have had in the past.

Maybe she just wasn't in a position to steal his thunder.

Trying to keep a positive attitude......

-ERD50

 

[ziggy29]

In retrospect, I think the markets rallying strongly yesterday was the worst thing that could have happened. In a skittish market with a strong downward bias, almost any sharp rally is an excuse for sellers to head for the exits, and I think a steep decline was inevitable.

But the perception will be that the president has flopped with Wall Street because of the egg being laid today and that he utterly failed to inspire any confidence.

 

[ERD50]

Results Wed AM

My read of the chart is:

A) On Tuesday the market recovered most of the Monday slide after Bernanke spoke (I need to go read the transcript to try to understand why)

B) Wed AM we are taking a slide, down 1.7% as I type (whoops, 2% now, I type slow). Guess the market was not too impressed with Obama's talk, but not reacting extremely either.


I'm reading through the transcript now, could not give undivided attention last night (sure is faster to read w/o the extended gratuitous applause the Prez always gets from their own party/choir).

My first impression is pretty much what I always get from Presidential statements - a lot of talk, some of it good, but "where's the beef"? I'll try digging deeper, but so much of this just sounds like statements of what they want to do, but I don't see the background on the "how". Again, not picking on Obama for this, it is the impression I get from all statements of this sort.


Here's a quick example regarding the housing plan:

" will help responsible families facing the threat of foreclosure lower their monthly payments and re-finance their mortgages. It’s a plan that won’t help speculators or that neighbor down the street who bought a house he could never hope to afford, but it will help millions of Americans who are struggling with declining home values "


Seriously, how do you distinguish between the two? I think it is tough on a large scale.

As an example, it bothers me that of two equal families, one that spent their money lavishly can qualify for more student aid than one that saved every penny. But realistically, how can the govt make that determination on a large scale - they really can't. I guess that's one reason I'd like to see most of these plans scrapped - there is no way to make them fair. One thing I've learned,, it is much easier to be equal than to be fair. If we don't scrap the plans, I think it should just be done equally, no testing required. The "rich" are paying higher tax amounts, so it really can just come out in the wash. And you would save on administration costs. Could actually be a win-win.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Another thing on that housing statement - I thought the party line was that we *had* to help the person who made a poor choice on a house/loan. Because if we didn't help them, that pain would extend to the entire market.

Am I reading that wrong, or are they back-peddling there?


-ERD50

 

[Bestwifeever]

Maybe the markets would have fallen further this morning had the president not spoken last night--nothing operates in a vacuum but there is probably some sophisticated model that exists to measure the impact of housing falling 5 percent in January vs. last night's speech.

If the market rallies by the end of the day will we credit the speech?

 

[ERD50]

Some will credit the speech no matter what he said (they wouldn't even need to hear it!).

Likewise, some will denounce it w/o listening.

But it is an imperfect science at best. Too many other factors, as you say. But I was hoping that this survey would be a contrary indicator. Curses, foiled again!

-ERD50

 

[Purron]

I am thinking that this video might be a good Democratic response to the speech

Good grief, what did Tammy do to her hair? This is a classic example of "helmet hair".

 

[TromboneAl]

Curses, foiled again!

The day isn't over yet. The magic eight ball predicts a positive close.

 

[ERD50]

Another thing on that housing statement - I thought the party line was that we *had* to help the person who made a poor choice on a house/loan. Because if we didn't help them, that pain would extend to the entire market.

Am I reading that wrong, or are they back-peddling there?

-ERD50

OK, found a source on this:

FACT CHECK: A hollow assurance from Obama about mortgage aid, and did the US invent the car? -- chicagotribune.com

OBAMA: "It's a plan that won't help speculators or that neighbor down the street who bought a house he could never hope to afford, but it will help millions of Americans who are struggling with declining home values."

THE FACTS: If the administration has come up with a way to ensure money only goes to those who got in honest trouble, it hasn't said so.

Defending the program Tuesday at a Senate hearing, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said it's important to save those who made bad calls, for the greater good. ....

Similarly, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. suggested this month it's not likely aid will be denied to all homeowners who overstated their income or assets to get a mortgage they couldn't afford.

"I think it's just simply impractical to try to do a forensic analysis of each and every one of these delinquent loans," Sheila Bair told National Public Radio.

Hmmm, that's what I thought.


I find this next one inexplicable. I mean, the President of the United States is going to make a speech that is written down, listened to and analyzed by people all over the world. Wouldn't you use some resources to make sure that verifiable facts are correct?

OBAMA: "We have known for decades that our survival depends on finding new sources of energy. Yet we import more oil today than ever before."

THE FACTS: Oil imports peaked in 2005 at just over 5 billion barrels, and have been declining slightly since. The figure in 2007 was 4.9 billion barrels.... The nation is on pace this year to import 4.7 billion barrels, and government projections are for imports to hold steady or decrease a bit over the next two decades.

Straight from the government's own website:

U.S. Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports from All Countries (Thousand Barrels)

OK, this next one is picking nits, but when I heard it, I perked up and thought - Huh? Karl Benz? Germany? That's my Final Answer!

C'mon, don't set yourself up like that - do a little basic fact checking. You know others will.

Karl Benz - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

OBAMA: "And I believe the nation that invented the automobile cannot walk away from it."

Bottom line, we are in a confidence crisis, and I don't think that distortions and inaccuracies help to build up the confidence that we need to get the economy moving. I think he could have done, and is fully capable of doing much better.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

The day isn't over yet. The magic eight ball predicts a positive close.

Hope you are right. I put in a limit order on an OTM CC on SPY. $0.74 on the March SPY 84s. SPY will probably need to hit $77.50 for that to hit.

If I get it its like an added dividend on the S&P of just under 1%/month. At the risk of SPY closing over $84.74 on March 20, which would be a > 9.3% pop up. Which of course, could happen in this volatile market, or no one would offer 74 cents for that call. History tells me it is a pretty safe, fairly low return risk/reward.

-ERD50

PS - got them @ 3:05ET SPY went positive

 

[Bestwifeever]

S&P is in the green right nowand Dow is down only $3 so likely to make it there too--2:10 pm CST--T-Al's prediction may come true

Ooops I jinxed it.... back down a little two minutes later.

 

[ERD50]

Close!...

But no cigar!

Man, I keep talking about Crystal Balls, should have been looking for a Magic-8 ball!

-ERD50

 

[Gpond]

Bonds yields screamed up today.

Wish that would show up in money market yields.

That was one bearish close for stoxs.

 

[ziggy29]

We're back to one of those markets where selling pressure in the last five minutes are a killer...

 

[Gpond]

The market will be disappointed by what he says, and drop.- 71% picked this

Hey, I thought everyone being negative was a bullish indicator.

 

[Gpond]

We're back to one of those markets where selling pressure in the last five minutes are a killer...

Magic mountained:

 

[ERD50]

Hey, I thought everyone being negative was a bullish indicator.

We are not "everyone", we must be the "smart ones"!

-ERD50

 

[TromboneAl]

My magic eight ball is running a little fast.

 

[clifp]

After hearing his speech I wanted to switch my vote. While it is nice to be in the smart majority, I really wish that I was wrong.