The Future of SS

DS, when in grade school and high school, was always finishing up school projects the night before. A bright, smart, athletic kid who always excelled in whatever he did. I squawked at him at all the time about his continuous procrastination. He looked up at me one time and said. "If it wouldn't be for the last minute, nothing would ever get done!"
 
IMO, Congress has and will cut SS benefits, they just don't do it directly.

My benefit was reduce compared to my father because I needed to age an additional year to be at full retirement age. Some things - like the amount we can earn before SS benefits are taxed - are not indexed to inflation (or am I wrong?) which is a de-facto tax increase. I also think we will see higher taxes on the SS benefits of high earners - an indirect cut in benefits.

Everybody will take a bit of a haircut, IMHO.
 
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That "politicians will not vote to cut benefits" is a misnomer. More accurately what they will not do is allow benefits to be reduced to balance SS fund income and outgo. This last happened in the 1980's (1983 I think, but may be mistaken) within a few months or weeks of an actual reduction in payments to the then-current SS payment recipients.

I will not be surprised to see the same thing happen again.

I remember it well, along with the start of the large payroll tax increases . Not sure of current demographics , but I can see a backlash among the younger generations and employers will not be happy.

The increases in the early 1980's were IMO to reflect increasing lifespans. Longevety has flattened some time ago.

EDIT add link to ss . gov historical rates. current total is 12.4 % for self emp. or emplee + employer. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/oasdiRates.html
 
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Yes! That is exactly what I was told!
Oh, wait....that was 50 years ago when I first started working.

"They" said with great and absolute surety that SS would be long, long gone by the time I would be of age.

Around 1995, I was tasked with helping a group of US servicemembers to revoke their SS accounts.

They were attending some meetings for some group, and I was invited.

I got the IRS forms [4361, 8274, and 4029].

IRS Pub 517 does a very good job of explaining how all of this works.

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f4361.pdf

http://www.irs.gov/publications/p517/ar02.html

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8274.pdf

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f4029.pdf



My wife and I had many long discussions on the topic. We finally decided to stay with SS.

Then at my next duty station, I found that many of my co-workers [US servicemembers] had been raised in US territories where enrolling your child has never been a common thing for people to do. So they grow up and enlist without ever thinking of having an S.S. account.
 
Completely non partisan statement here. Unless the polarization subsides the government will screw it up.

I never planned on it anyway when putting a long term plan in place. It would have been a bonus if it happened, but I’m not going to worry about it.
 
I predict the wage cap at least doubled, plus employer/employee start paying another 1% each.

That'll get me my full SS @ FRA...so who cares about those still paying? :)
 
While eligible for it, I am putting it off until I hot 70. Do not really feel like they will cut benefits for those very close to retirement. Believe it is our children and grandchildren that will see changes. Like push back early retirement age, full retirement age and income threshold where they stop taking out SS tax. Hope I am not being too optimistic. But it would be a very unpopular political move to be the ones to cut the benefit that we've all paid in to.
 
SS - my rightful entitlement

What am I missing here.

Does anyone in this forum DISAGREE that you are entitled to the full and promised payout of 100% SS benefits if you've paid into the SS tax fund for your lifetime?

I paid into SS like most taxpayers - for the duration of my career. I am absolutely and indisputably entitled to 100% of the amount and NOTHING LESS.

On what conceivable grounds would anyone even begin to entertain the idea of alteration of the terms by which full original benefits owed are to be paid out; i.e how would anyone possibly attempt to justify accepting anything less than 100% ROI for any SS investor to whom this payout is legally entitled?

I'll direct this to anyone who doesn't agree because the burden of proof and a response is owed to every American if you actually think there is even an iota of a right to tamper with SS benefit payout to any participant who has paid into the program to-date. This is hands-off s**t. Period.

I'll consider any lack of response as an acknowledgment. Otherwise, bring it.

Mike
 
While eligible for it, I am putting it off until I hot 70. Do not really feel like they will cut benefits for those very close to retirement. Believe it is our children and grandchildren that will see changes. Like push back early retirement age, full retirement age and income threshold where they stop taking out SS tax. Hope I am not being too optimistic. But it would be a very unpopular political move to be the ones to cut the benefit that we've all paid in to.

No. "they" CANNOT cut the benefit we've all paid into. Period. If you accept the notion than they can, or believe it to be fair, you are essentially abdicating your rights of citizenship. There will never be any grounds for disruption of the full rightful SS payout to all participant-taxpayers. Period. No debate. The end.
 
What am I missing here.

Does anyone in this forum DISAGREE that you are entitled to the full and promised payout of 100% SS benefits if you've paid into the SS tax fund for your lifetime?

I paid into SS like most taxpayers - for the duration of my career. I am absolutely and indisputably entitled to 100% of the amount and NOTHING LESS.

On what conceivable grounds would anyone even begin to entertain the idea of alteration of the terms by which full original benefits owed are to be paid out; i.e how would anyone possibly attempt to justify accepting anything less than 100% ROI for any SS investor to whom this payout is legally entitled?

I'll direct this to anyone who doesn't agree because the burden of proof and a response is owed to every American if you actually think there is even an iota of a right to tamper with SS benefit payout to any participant who has paid into the program to-date. This is hands-off s**t. Period.

I'll consider any lack of response as an acknowledgment. Otherwise, bring it.

Mike

I actually agree with you and am using 100% SS payments in my retirement calculations.
 
Look. You can talk about the notion of screwing with SS benefits future-tense, but as far as disrupting the full amount entitled to every taxpayer who has paid into the system for their rightful return on investment, there is absolutely zero grounds for this government to reduce benefits owed to SS contributors to-date. If you believe this is disputable, let me hear your case.
 
Look. You can talk about the notion of screwing with SS benefits future-tense, but as far as disrupting the full amount entitled to every taxpayer who has paid into the system for their rightful return on investment, there is absolutely zero grounds for this government to reduce benefits owed to SS contributors to-date. If you believe this is disputable, let me hear your case.

Oh, they'll pay. Print mo money, pay you what yer due. Easy peasy. :dance:
 
What am I missing here.

Does anyone in this forum DISAGREE that you are entitled to the full and promised payout of 100% SS benefits if you've paid into the SS tax fund for your lifetime?

I paid into SS like most taxpayers - for the duration of my career. I am absolutely and indisputably entitled to 100% of the amount and NOTHING LESS.

On what conceivable grounds would anyone even begin to entertain the idea of alteration of the terms by which full original benefits owed are to be paid out; i.e how would anyone possibly attempt to justify accepting anything less than 100% ROI for any SS investor to whom this payout is legally entitled?

I'll direct this to anyone who doesn't agree because the burden of proof and a response is owed to every American if you actually think there is even an iota of a right to tamper with SS benefit payout to any participant who has paid into the program to-date. This is hands-off s**t. Period.

I'll consider any lack of response as an acknowledgment. Otherwise, bring it.

Mike
Just some facts, no opinions here if I can avoid it ...

Social Security is almost entirely a pay-as-you-go program. Almost all the taxes collected in each year were paid out in the same year they were collected.

My taxes paid for my parents' and grandparents' benefits. Because my parents got SS benefits, they were not living with me, I was not sending them monthly checks, and I even inherited a few dollars from them.

The continuation of SS requires that my children and grandchildren are willing to pay taxes to provide for my benefits.

But, there is a complication. My parents were the WWII generation. On average, that generation had about three kids per couple. I'm a Boomer, we had about two kids per couple. If nothing else had changed, SS can't support the same benefits with the same tax rates. Either my kids have to pay 50% higher taxes than I paid, or I take 33% lower benefits than my parents got, or some partial combination of the two.

But, other things didn't stay the same. Mortality rates fell and life spans increased. More women worked more hours. Those thing have impacts on the ratios above.

In the 1980s, politicians could see what had happened to birth rates, they knew the demographic mismatch was coming. So they temporarily raised taxes above the paygo level, and they cut benefits by increasing the normal retirement age. The taxes generated some modest "pre-funding" into the program, which will be used up in the next couple decades. The higher taxes also reset the perception "normal" tax rates, so any future increase doesn't look so severe.

Like I said, I tried to write that without any opinions, it's just some facts about the system. I don't want Porky to show up.
 
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What am I missing here.

Does anyone in this forum DISAGREE that you are entitled to the full and promised payout of 100% SS benefits if you've paid into the SS tax fund for your lifetime?

I paid into SS like most taxpayers - for the duration of my career. I am absolutely and indisputably entitled to 100% of the amount and NOTHING LESS.

On what conceivable grounds would anyone even begin to entertain the idea of alteration of the terms by which full original benefits owed are to be paid out; i.e how would anyone possibly attempt to justify accepting anything less than 100% ROI for any SS investor to whom this payout is legally entitled?

....

Ummm. How about directly on point U.S. Supreme Court precedent? Flemming v. Nestor, 363 U.S. 603 (1960). You and I have no enforceable right to benefits if Congress changes the law (or if the present law forces a haircut).

We would LOVE to get the currently promised benefits at age 70, as DW is only $10 a month from max, and I'm not far behind. But as we hit 59 and 60 this year, we still are not counting on anything. If we get $$, our grandchildren will be happy though!
 
+1 I remembered that precedent but your post above saved me from looking it up.

Mike can be as indignant as he wants, and I agree with him that we all should get what was promised, but nonetheless we are not legally entitled to it... not to mention not "absolutely and indisputably entitled".

The system is designed as a pay as you go system. The demographics are such that taxes paid in exceeded benefits paid by a large margin for most of our careers... that is changing and unless Congress makes changes at some point the surplus will be totally used up... at which point benefits will be haircut.
 
I really like what Australia, Switzerland, Chile, and about 20 other countries did. Create an account, very light funding in a welfare fashion for those who drift through life. Inheritable asset for the kids. All contributions from companies during working time go into same account (no rollovers, always same account).

It ends the generational transfer that creates war between grandparents and kids, the Ponzi legacy of FDR.

It also removes political dependence of the elderly, since funds are private. Can't steal FICA to bomb vietnam or fund interstates.
 
.... Can't steal FICA to bomb vietnam or fund interstates.

It's statements like this from people who have no earthly clue how the system works that drive me nuts.

All annual surpluses were invested by special issue U.S. government bonds issued by the general fund and held by the Social Security Trust Fund that pay interest like any other U.S. government bond. Nothing was stolen.

Beginning in 2019, it is expected that benefits paid will exceed taxes collected and some of these bonds will be redeemed and the proceeds used to fund any deficit. By 2034 or so, all the bonds will be gone and if Congress fails to act then benefits will be haircut about 25% to align with taxes collected.

Ignorance is bliss.
 
I'm not worried about it. Congress already owes the SS trust fund $4 trillion dollars they "borrowed" from the fund to offset unbalanced budgets back when they cared about it. Now we have uncontrolled spending and they print money with no regards to the future and have run up a debt of $23 trillion. Most of this benefited the ultra rich and the MIC who push for endless wars which actually drive our economy.

There are too many voters receiving or are going to be receiving SSA and unfortunately for politicians, every 4 years they actually try and please the actual voters so they will pump more printed money into SSA to float it otherwise the voters will turn on them. It really is as simple as that. The US currency itself has no actual intrinsic value any more as a fiat currency based only on faith but it does have the support of other nations who are still going to buy treasuries hence our appeasement of KSA. Despite all the rhetoric, that is going to continue for the foreseeable future. So, I am not worried about it. If I were worried I would move everything we have into some other stable currency. But, looking at all the other currencies I see none as dependable as the dollar and most economists agree. So, to me if Congress wants to keep SSA afloat they will put back the $4 trillion from newly minted dollars and just bump the federal debt up accordingly. After all, what is another $4 trillion?
 
I played around on

https://www.crfb.org/socialsecurityreformer/


I managed to "fix" SS for at least the next 75 years in about 1 min with just three clicks of the mouse.

1) Subject all wages to payroll tax
2) Increase contribution by 0.4 cents
3) Increase full retirement age from 67 to 68

If you want to write me in for 2020, the name is Fermion
 
I played around on

https://www.crfb.org/socialsecurityreformer/


I managed to "fix" SS for at least the next 75 years in about 1 min with just three clicks of the mouse.

1) Subject all wages to payroll tax
2) Increase contribution by 0.4 cents
3) Increase full retirement age from 67 to 68

If you want to write me in for 2020, the name is Fermion

I have no issue with any of that as long as it is phased in over time.

I don't mind means testing for benefits either. But I get to pick who gets my benefits. Send me a list of 100 candidates and I will screen them and interview to determine who is worthy of my money. And yes, I will be biased.
 
The SS full retirement age has already been increased. When I was younger, it was 65. Now, I won't reach FTA until age 67. I would call that a benefit cut.

Social Security after-tax "net" benefits are already being "cut" every year and have been for years, but most people aren't aware of how this is being done.

The SS formula for determining how much of your SS benefits are taxed is NOT indexed to inflation, so that threshold has not increased since it was first introduced in 1983. For a single person, if your income combined with half your SS benefits exceeds $25,000, you have to pay income tax on up to 50% of your SS benefits. If it exceeds $34,000, you have to pay income tax on up to 85% of your SS benefits. $25K in 1983 is worth a lot more than $25K in 2018. Since your retirement distributions and SS benefits will be adjusted with inflation, but NOT the $25,000/$34,000 thresholds, a greater percentage of your SS benefits will become taxable as each year passes (for married filing jointly, the thresholds are $32,000/$44,000.) It's a built-in tax increase, reducing "net" SS benefits, hurting seniors further. The greater your combined income and SS/2, the more you will be affected by this up to a max of 85% of your benefits being taxed! It's absurd, and those thresholds should be increased to reflect inflation since 1983.

The ways it is, you should play it safe by estimating that 85% of your SS benefits well into the future will be taxable. More information about this can be found in these references:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...-punished-by-social-security-taxes-2019-01-07
https://www.fool.com/retirement/gen...ear-old-social-security-rule-is-wreaking.aspx
http://www.foxnews.com/story/2007/03/25/double-whammy-taxation-social-security-benefits.html
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/issuepapers/ip2015-02.html

I'm not one to support tax increases, but I would be open to paying higher FICA taxes to help shore up SS to prevent cuts to benefits and to prevent increasing the FTA for people within a decade of collecting SS.

At some point, the FTA will need increased for younger workers also as lifetime durations increase over time.
 
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